A new Texas Lyceum poll gives Donald Trump a six point lead over Hillary Clinton among likely voters in a head-head match-up. That's pretty much in line with other recent Texas polls. What caught our attention is that among all registered voters, it is Clinton with a four point lead. That's a 10 point difference.
Most pollsters use a likely voter screen in the weeks leading up to the election, and that's what we use in our tables, when both are available. However, defining likely voters is a challenge for pollsters, as this 2012 article discusses.
Perhaps this kind of difference reflects more passion for one candidate. At the same time, it could highlight an opportunity if one candidate's 'get out the vote' effort can significantly outperform on Election Day.
In Florida, Trump leads by 4 points head-head, 3 points when third parties are included. This brings the Florida polling average to almost dead even; Trump has a lead of less than 1%.
In Ohio, Trump also leads by 4 points head-head, with a 5 point lead when third parties are included. These results are very similar to a Bloomberg Politics poll out earlier today. All recent polling now gives Trump a 1-2 point lead in the state.
Barack Obama won both Florida and Ohio in 2008 and again in 2012. In the latter election, these were two of only four states decided by 5 points or less. No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio.
CNN also surveyed the Senate races in both states, finding the incumbent Republicans with double-digit leads over their challengers. Marco Rubio leads by 11 over Patrick Murphy in Florida. In Ohio, Rob Portman has a 21 point lead on Ted Strickland.
Libertarian party nominee Gary Johnson will appear on the November ballot in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia, The Wall Street Journal reports. This marks the first such occurrence for a third party nominee since 1996, when Ross Perot (Reform Party) and Harry Browne (Libertarian) were successful. Perot received 8.4% of the vote that year, while Browne saw only 0.5% support.
Rhode Island was the final state to approve Johnson.
Johnson is currently averaging 9% in national polls, although he is well into double digits in several states. To qualify for the debates, Johnson would need to average 15%. The campaign is taking out a full-page ad in the New York Times to encourage the debate commission to allow him to participate.
No 3rd party candidate has earned electoral votes since 1968, when George Wallace won five states in the deep South. Will this year be different? You can game it out with our three-way map that includes Gary Johnson.
Donald Trump is within three points in Maine, according to a new poll released by Colby College & Boston Globe in conjunction with SurveyUSA. The poll showed Trump with a ten point lead in Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
Maine is one of only two states to partially allocate its electoral votes based on the popular vote results in each congressional district. While this approach, established in advance of the 1972 election, has never resulted in an electoral vote split, that may change in 2016. Polling of the state has been limited, but the averages point toward Clinton winning the state, with Trump winning the 2nd district. In that case, Trump would earn one of the state's four electoral votes. This is now reflected in the electoral map based on polls. UPDATE: A late August poll surfaced a few hours after this article was written that had Clinton leading in ME-02. Trump still leads by several points in that district, but with the average difference within 5 points, it is reclassified as a toss-up.
It is exactly 8 weeks until the 2016 presidential election. Here are two views of the electoral map as of today. Select either of the maps to use as a starting point to create and share your own forecast.
Polling Map
This map takes a look at the electoral map entirely based on state-level polls. We try and base it on a polling average (vs. a single poll), wherever possible. Since polls are a snapshot in time, this map more closely answers the "If the election were today...." question. It also means the map is subject to significant change between now and Election Day, particularly in states where polling has been very limited to this point.
The national polls have tightened recently, and this has begun to show up in the state-level polling, with many states now in the toss-up category. For this map that is defined as a spread of five points or less. As of now, the closest states in the polling averages are Iowa, Arizona and Florida; these are tied.
Consensus Pundit Electoral Map
This map aggregates the electoral map forecast from nine different organizations into a single map. These are all projections for November. Forecasters consider polling, history, demographics and other variables to come up with their projections. As a result, this map doesn't change as frequently. This morning's update showed no change from the last time we looked at it in late August. Clinton leads 273-175, with 90 electoral votes, from six states, seen as true toss-ups.
As the election nears, these two maps should converge on a pretty similar outlook.
The Associated Press takes another look at the presidential race and the electoral map. In this September 10th update, AP notes that the "presidential race may be tightening nationally, but Hillary Clinton still has the edge in the states she'll need to win in November".
The electoral map itself has changed little from AP's last look in late August. Only New Hampshire has moved, being reclassified from toss-up to lean Clinton. That minor change is notable in that it pushes Clinton across 270 electoral votes.
The latest AP map is below. Click on it for an interactive version to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast. We've also added the map to our pundits page, where you can view the latest projection from 10 different outlets.
As is the case every two years, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested this November. Republicans currently* hold 247 seats, Democrats 188. With 218 seats required for control, Democrats must gain 30 seats to take the gavel from Paul Ryan. At this point, that outcome seems unlikely.
We've updated the House interactive map with ten ratings changes from Sabato's Crystal Ball. After these changes, Republicans are safely in control of 206 seats, Democrats 181. That leaves only 48 races that are at least somewhat competitive**; Democrats would need to win 37 of those.At this point, based on the Sabato team's analysis, a Democratic gain of 10-15 seats seems most likely.
Select the map below to create your own 2016 House forecast. Due to the number and geographical size of Districts, this map works a bit differently than our others. Here are a couple tips on using the map.
* This includes three vacancies that are all expected to remain with the prior incumbent party when filled. The actual composition of the House today is 246 Republicans and 186 Democrats
** This seems like an very small number given how unpopular Congress is. Gallup used to ask people about Congress as a whole vs. performance of their own Representative. It doesn't look like they do that any longer, but this article from a couple years back discusses the wide spread between those two numbers. Other elements come into play as well, including gerrymandered districts and the difficulty of unseating an incumbent, particularly in a primary.
Twelve seats will have gubernatorial elections in 2016, including one special election in Oregon. We've updated the interactive map with the latest ratings changes from Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Note the competitiveness of the races in Vermont and West Virginia, in stark contrast to the presidential race, where we may see two of the largest margins of victory for Clinton and Trump, respectively, this November. The article discussing the changes dives into some of the history behind those seeming contradictions.
Republicans hold the governor's office in 31 states, Democrats 18. Alaska's governor is an independent. Eight of the twelve seats up for election this year are held by Democrats, including five of the seven competitive ones. Seven of the twelve incumbents are not standing for reelection, including Indiana governor Mike Pence, now Donald Trump's running mate.
Here's how the map currently looks. Click it for an interactive version to create your own 2016 forecast.
Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is on the ballot in every state except Rhode Island. Efforts remain underway to get on the ballot there.
Green Party nominee Jill Stein is on the ballot in 42 states. The campaign is awaiting results of their filings in Rhode Island and Wyoming. Write-in votes for Stein will be allowed in Georgia, Indiana and North Carolina. No ballot access in Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
Both nominees are on the ballot in the District of Columbia.
To track how Johnson and Stein are doing in the public opinion polls, visit our polls page and check the box to display polls with 3rd party nominees. You can also link to all polls for a given state.
We're not following this campaign as closely, but independent Evan McMullin is on the ballot in nine states, including Arkansas, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, South Carolina, Utah and Virginia.
The Washington Post, in conjunction with SurveyMonkey, has conducted a poll* in each of the 50 states. Per the Post, "Donald Trump is within striking distance in the Upper Midwest, but Hillary Clinton’s strength in many battlegrounds and some traditional Republican strongholds gives her a big electoral college advantage".
For purposes of the map, states with margins of 5 points or less are considered toss-ups, while those with margins greater than 10 points are considered 'safe'. The lighter red/blue are 'lean' states, in-between those two ranges.
In the electoral map based on polls, Clinton currently leads 262-145 with 131 electoral votes as toss-up. 84 of Clinton's electoral votes, and 42 of Trump's are in the 'lean' area. Most of the larger 'lean' states end up as toss-up in the Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll. Of particular note is Texas, where Clinton led by one. On the other hand, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which together comprise about as many electoral votes as Texas, were much closer in this poll than in the polling average; these states have been leaning toward Clinton. Other significant differences vs. traditional polls include Colorado and Mississippi (much closer) and Missouri (larger Trump lead).
The above analysis is all based on Clinton vs. Trump head-to-head. The poll also looked at a four-way race in each state. Both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein greatly outperformed traditional polling, with Johnson at 10% or higher in more than 40 states, including 25% in New Mexico (just 4% less than Trump). If this set of surveys is correct, the third party nominees have significant support not registering in traditional polling. This would be a very significant finding, although we have no way of knowing which view of the world is correct at this point.
* SurveyMonkey conducts polls using online-based sampling. These are surveys taken from a pool of recruited respondents, a subset of the population that takes surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform. This differs from traditional polling where respondents are selected at random, meaning (in theory) that any member of the population being sampled (e.g., likely voters) could be selected. In traditional polling, a margin of error, to reflect how far the sample population might deviate from the full population (based on probability theory) is calculated. In the SurveyMonkey polls, only those who have opted-in to the platform can be selected, thus no margin of error associatd with the full population can be calculated. However, in these "non-probability samples, testing is necessary to ensure a particular sampling strategy, along with adjustments to match population demographics, can consistently produce accurate estimates."
