Live Results

Illinois and Ohio (postponed) hold their regular primary elections as well. We'll have results for any contested congressional races.

Polls Close (Eastern Time)

_{Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this to determine when to vote. Total Democratic pledged delegates by closing time are displayed.}

_{¹ Most of the state is in this time zone. Some results may display during this hour, but no race call will be made until all the polls are closed.}

Democratic Polling Averages & Delegate Estimates

Joe Biden is polling well ahead of Bernie Sanders in each of three states going forward with their scheduled primaries. While Sanders is expected to earn delegates, the end of the night may see the former Vice-President's delegate advantage more than double.

For polling detail, see the Democratic nomination home page. Select a state on the map. To see delegate information for completed contests and create your own forecast, see the interactive delegate calculator.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Nebraska

Nebraska is all but certain to vote for Donald Trump this November. The state, however, is one of two that awards Electoral College votes by congressional district. Nebraska’s second district is far more competitive than the state as a whole and could prove decisive in a close presidential election. As such, this week’s article will be a little different than usual. The first half will focus on Nebraska’s history and political landscape at large and the second half will zoom in to the competitive Omaha-based district.

Road to Statehood

Georgia has rescheduled its presidential primary from March 24 to May 19, which is the scheduled date for the state's non-presidential primaries. It becomes the second state to do so in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Louisiana made a similar move yesterday, postponing its primary from April 4 to June 20.

Tuesday, March 17 is the third largest date - in terms of available delegates - on the Democratic primary calendar in 2020.  Voters in Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona will cast their ballots. A total of 577 delegates is available. This trails only Super Tuesday and April 28. The latter date is the so-called 'Acela Primary' across six East Coast states.

Here are the latest polling averages in each of those states, as of Saturday, March 14.  Note that we have only averaged polls released after Super Tuesday, March 3.  We've also plugged these averages into our Delegate Calculator (create your forecast here) to get a sense of how the delegate split might look.  

At this point, Joe Biden leads in each of the four states, with that lead largest in Florida, the most delegate-rich opportunity on Tuesday. It is quite possible that the former Vice President will more than double his current delegate lead over Bernie Sanders.

Update 3/14 9:00 AM ET:  Bernie Sanders has won the Northern Mariana Democratic caucuses. Sanders will earn four of the six available delegates; Joe Biden the other two.  

Democrats in the Northern Mariana Islands caucus on Saturday, March 14.  The islands are 14 hours ahead of Eastern Time.  Results may be available as soon as early Saturday morning, with six pledged delegates to be be allocated.

Louisiana's presidential primary will no longer take place on April 4, as concerns over the coronavirus have led the state to delay it to a later date. It is the first state to change a primary election date due to the pandemic. 

The primary has been rescheduled for June 20. That is after each party's approved window for holding primaries. It is possible this could impact the number of delegates Louisiana has at the conventions this summer, although that seems unlikely given the situation.

The postponement shouldn't have a significant practical impact on the race.  On the GOP side, President Trump is likely to clinch the Republican nomination this Tuesday. That day's primaries in Illinois, Florida and Ohio should give him well over the 172 delegates he needs to reach the required 1,276.  On the Democratic side, Joe Biden is likely to significantly expand his delegate lead on Tuesday and may well be the presumptive nominee by the end of the month.

Live Results

Mississippi holds its regular primary elections as well. We'll have results for any contested congressional races.

Polls Close (Eastern Time)

_{Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this to determine when to vote. Total Democratic pledged delegates by closing time are displayed.}

_{¹ Most of the state is in this time zone. Some results may display during this hour, but no race call will be made until all the polls are closed.
² The GOP caucuses are on a different schedule, ending at 8:00 PM local time.
³ Primary conducted by mail. This is the latest time to submit a ballot to an official drop box.}

Democratic Polling Averages & Delegate Estimates

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders should receive delegates in each contest, although it might be a close call for Sanders in Mississippi. Washington's primary is conducted by mail, with a good portion of the ballots submitted before today. This may partially explain the narrower spread vs. today's other states and the fact that the three remaining candidates only add up to about 80% of the vote.  Sanders scored dominant wins in Idaho and Washington in 2016; these states have switched to primaries in 2020 making that difficult to replicate.  

For polling detail, see the Democratic nomination home page. Select a state on the map. Note that the table below reflects polls conducted after Super Tuesday, to better reflect the smaller field of candidates that remain. To see delegate information for completed contests and create your own forecast, see the interactive delegate calculator.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Maryland

Maryland is one of the most liberal states in the country. In 2011, the state legislature passed a bill to provide in-state tuition to undocumented immigrants; a year later Marylanders voted to legalize same-sex marriage in a popular referendum. In 2012 and 2016, it gave Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton over 60% of the popular vote. It might be surprising, then, that such a liberal bastion elected a Republican, Larry Hogan, as governor in 2014 and again in 2018. Hogan, however, is a moderate on social issues while more conservative on fiscal ones. This ideological mix suits the state’s diverse, college educated, and wealthy population. To understand how Maryland became the nation’s richest state as well as one of its most diverse, we’ll go back to its pre-statehood history.

Catholic Refuge to Statehood

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock announced Monday that he will run for Senate this year.

I've always fought for the people of Montana. Together, we expanded health care, protected public lands, banned dark money in politics & more. Now I'm taking that fight to the US Senate. Let’s make Washington work more like Montana. Join us: https://t.co/vyPPioB0tJ #MTSen #MTpol pic.twitter.com/6VuCKsNTeW

— Steve Bullock (@stevebullockmt) March 9, 2020

Bullock is unable - due to term limits - from seeking a third term as the state's governor in 2020.  He ran for president over the second half of 2019 before dropping out in December. He had previously resisted efforts from within the party to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines, but ultimately acquiesced.  Today is the candidate filing deadline in the state.

Bullock's candidacy moves the Senate seat onto the competitive map, with a consensus Leans Republican rating.  While still underdogs in this deep red state, it does give Democrats an additional path to pick up the 3 or 4 seats needed to take control in 2021. The number may more realistically be 4 or 5 seats, as the GOP is favored to recapture the Alabama seat in a presidential election year with a popular Republican incumbent on the ballot.

Based on consensus, the four most competitive races are in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. All these seats are GOP-held.

352 pledged delegates, across six states, are available in Tuesday's Democratic nominating contests. Here are the latest polling averages in each of those states, as Monday morning, March 9. 

Note that given the much smaller field, we have only averaged polls released after Super Tuesday, March 3.  We've also plugged these averages into our Delegate Calculator (create your forecast here) to get a sense of how the delegate split might look.