In its latest analysis of the electoral map, Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved seven states out of the 'safe' column for Donald Trump. Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina and Utah are all now rated Likely Republican.
Trump remains the favorite in all of them, but Sabato says the "ratings represent something of a hedge between a Trump comeback and Biden maintaining or expanding his large national lead."
Their current electoral map is below; click or tap for an interactive version.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
Joe Biden won Puerto Rico's Democratic presidential primary Sunday. Originally scheduled for March 29, the primary was first moved to April 26 and then indefinitely postponed.
After today, only Connecticut remains on the presidential primary calendar. Voters there go to the polls on August 11. Plenty of downballot primaries remain, however. 14 states vote in August, with another 4 during the first half of September.
Louisiana holds its presidential primaries Saturday. Originally scheduled for April 4, the primary was first moved to June 20 before being postponed a second time. Polls are open until 9:00 PM Eastern Time. Results will appear below after that time.
Puerto Rico holds its Democratic presidential primary Sunday. On Tuesday, there are runoffs in Alabama and Texas, along with congressional primaries in Maine. Several interesting races that night; we'll have an overview as it gets closer.
On Friday, Inside Elections made eight changes to its 2020 Senate ratings. All moved in the direction of Democrats challenging GOP incumbents seeking reelection.
Alaska and South Carolina move from Safe to Likely Republican
Georgia (special) and Texas move from Likely to Leans Republican
July is a quiet month on the election calendar. Tuesday brings us the Delaware and New Jersey presidential primaries, rescheduled from April 28. There are also congressional primaries in New Jersey.
Looking ahead, Louisiana and Puerto Rico11Democrats only have scheduled presidential primaries this weekend. That wraps up the presidential primary calendar, except for Connecticut (August 11).
Next Tuesday, July 14, there are congressional primaries in Maine and primary runoff elections in Alabama and Texas.
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that states can require Electoral College members to cast their vote for the candidate to whom they were pledged to support. The decision was unanimous.
Recent court decisions, in cases arising out of the 2016 presidential election, had come to opposite conclusions about this issue. That year, Donald Trump won states (and a district in Maine) worth 306 electoral votes; Hillary Clinton won states with 232 electoral votes. When the actual vote of Electors took place on December 19, ten electors attempted to cast votes for others. Two of the Clinton electors (one each in Colorado and Minnesota) were replaced, a third (in Maine) ultimately changed their vote to Clinton.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
In a major upset, five-term incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton was defeated by restaurateur Lauren Boebert in the GOP primary for Colorado's 3rd congressional district.
Boebert will meet Democrat Diane Bush in November. Bush was the party's nominee in 2018, losing to Tipton by about 8%. While Boebert will start the race as the favorite in this GOP-leaning district on the state's Western Slope, her positions may create an opening for Democrats. Sabato's Crystal Ball changed its rating of the race from Likely to Leans Republican after Boebert became the nominee.
Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah hold downballot primaries Tuesday. There are a handful of interesting races including the GOP gubernatorial primary in Utah and the Democratic Senate primary in Colorado. For the House, we'll be watching the Republican primaries in OK-4 and UT-4.
Polls Close (Eastern Time)
Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.
8:00 PM
Oklahoma
9:00 PM
Colorado
10:00 PM
Utah
Democratic Delegate Count
All three states on the calendar Tuesday held their presidential primaries in March. The table below shows last week's available delegates (274 from New York + 54 from Kentucky) as many of those have not yet been allocated as ballots continue to be counted. Total delegates are displayed as well.
Joe Biden long ago became the presumptive nominee. However, once he reaches 2,375 delegates, he will have a majority of the projected 4,749 total Democratic delegate votes. By crossing this threshold, all delegates (pledged and super/automatic) will be able to participate in the roll call that nominates the former vice president.
