Electoral Map Based on FiveThirtyEight Model
August 15, 2020
We've added an electoral map that is derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast that was released earlier this week. The map will update every two hours, reflecting the then-current probabilities for each state. The current map is below; click or tap for an interactive version.
The color breakpoints are always somewhat arbitrary with a statistical model, but we've selected ranges that seem to fit best when comparing to other forecasts. The toss-up color is used where neither candidate has a 65% chance of winning. The lightest red/blue gradient is 65%+, medium 80%+ and darkest 95%+.
This FiveThirtyEight article discusses the methodology behind their model.
Headlines
Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley Will Seek an 8th Term in 2022
Ending months of suspense, the 88 year old Republican announced his intention early Friday morning
Republican Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez Not Running in 2022
He was one of ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump
Early Voting Begins in Virginia Gubernatorial Election
Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin look to succeed term-limited Gov. Ralph Northam (D).
Overview and Live Results: California Gubernatorial Recall Election
An expensive effort to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office ends with Tuesday's vote. Recent polling indicates the recall will fail.
Overview and Live Results: State House Special Elections in Iowa and Tennessee
Winners will complete the term of two legislators who died earlier this year
