August 15, 2020
We've added an electoral map that is derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast that was released earlier this week. The map will update every two hours, reflecting the then-current probabilities for each state. The current map is below; click or tap for an interactive version.
The color breakpoints are always somewhat arbitrary with a statistical model, but we've selected ranges that seem to fit best when comparing to other forecasts. The toss-up color is used where neither candidate has a 65% chance of winning. The lightest red/blue gradient is 65%+, medium 80%+ and darkest 95%+.