Electoral Map Based on FiveThirtyEight Model
August 15, 2020
We've added an electoral map that is derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast that was released earlier this week. The map will update every two hours, reflecting the then-current probabilities for each state. The current map is below; click or tap for an interactive version.
The color breakpoints are always somewhat arbitrary with a statistical model, but we've selected ranges that seem to fit best when comparing to other forecasts. The toss-up color is used where neither candidate has a 65% chance of winning. The lightest red/blue gradient is 65%+, medium 80%+ and darkest 95%+.
This FiveThirtyEight article discusses the methodology behind their model.
Headlines
The Road to 270: Georgia
Highly competitive contests for president and Senate have placed the Peach State front and center for this upcoming election.
Cook Political Updates 12 House Ratings
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
The Road to 270: Iowa
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight House Forecast
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Road to 270: Florida
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.
