August 7, 2020
Inside Elections updated their 2020 House outlook on Friday. The forecaster moved the ratings of 29 seats, 27 of them favoring Democrats. From their analysis:
"Not only is the majority all-but-completely out of reach for this fall as initial GOP takeover targets are dropping completely off the list of competitive races, but dozens of Republican incumbents previously regarded as safe for re-election are vulnerable as Trump underperforms his 2016 totals by 8-10 points or more around the country. It’s certainly possible that a House candidate overperforms the top of the ticket. But it’s impossible to ignore the fact that presidential results and House results match up at least 90 percent of the time."
Here's the updated Inside Elections map. Click/tap for an interactive version. A tweet listing all the changes follows the map.
Note that on the graphic in the tweet below, the Old Rating for Michigan 8th should be Likely Democratic.
Georgia will fill two vacancies in its state house, including a battleground district in suburban Atlanta. There's also a special primary in Wisconsin.
Adams, Garcia, Wiley and Yang all see double-digit support, with Adams reaching majority support in the ranked choice simulation
The former incumbent, Democrat Troy Carter, resigned after being elected to Congress in an April special election.
She joins what will be a crowded field hoping to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Roy Blunt
This move was widely expected and is now official. The Florida senate seat is one of 34 to be contested in 2022.