Election News

Alabama has moved up the date for its U.S. Senate special election to December 12, 2017, following a primary on August 15th, Politico reports. The special election was previously scheduled for November 6, 2018, to coincide with the midterm general elections. The winner of the special election will serve out the six-year term of this seat, next up for election in 2020.

The Senate seat became open when Jeff Sessions resigned after being confirmed as U.S. Attorney General in February. Then governor Robert Bentley, appointed Luther Strange to the seat. Bentley subsequently resigned on April 10th to avoid felony charges and likely impeachment. The Lt. Governor at the time, Kay Ivey, took over for Bentley that day. She pursued the date change after discussions with state officials.

Democrat Jon Ossoff is polling at 45% in a poll released late Friday for the Georgia's 6th congressional district special election. This is slightly better than recent polling having him in the low 40s, but he remains several points shy of the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff.

The Republican vote is split among several candidates. However, this latest poll has former Ga. Secretary of State Karen Handel pulling away from her main competition.  Handel comes in at 17%, while Bob Gray, Dan Moody and Judson Hill are congregated between 8-9%.

Republican Ron Estes is the projected winner of the special election in Kansas' 4th congressional district, edging Democratic nominee James Thompson in a much closer than expected race. With 94% of the vote in, Estes leads by just 5.8%.

Voters in Kansas' 4th congressional district head to the polls today in the first congressional election of the Trump era. The seat became vacant earlier this year when Mike Pompeo resigned to take over the CIA. The district covers the south-central part of the state, including Wichita. Polls are open until 7PM Central Time (8PM Eastern). 

Alabama governor Robert Bentley resigned on Monday and agreed to plead guilty to two misdemeanor campaign violations. As part of the plea deal, the state will not pursue other, more serious charges against Bentley. This also puts to an end impeachment proceedings which had begun against the governor. The troubles for Bentley stem from an extramarital affair with a staffer and an alleged law enforcement cover-up.

Lt. Governor Kay Ivey will serve out the remainder of Bentley's term. The seat is up for election in 2018, one of 36 gubernatorial races that year.

The first of five special elections to fill vacancies in the U.S. House of Representatives will be held on Tuesday. That race, in Kansas' 4th congressional district became open after Mike Pompeo resigned to become Director of the CIA. While this is a deeply red district, the race has recently shown signs of becoming more competitive. The Hill reports that Democrats in the district have been energized by Trump's low approval ratings. In addition, the Republican nominee, State Treasurer Ron Estes, has apparently run a very poor campaign.

Pompeo won reelection by 32 points in November, while Trump won by 27 points within the district. A Democratic victory here remains a highly unlikely outcome. That said, The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have recently updated their ratings from 'safe' to 'likely' Republican. Sabato's Crystal Ball remains at 'safe'.

A Gravis Marketing survey of Montana likely voters gives Republican Greg Gianforte a 12 point lead over Democrat Rob Quist in the race for the state's at-large congressional seat. The special election will be held May 25th. The seat became vacant when Republican Ryan Zinke resigned after being confirmed as Secretary of the Interior. 

Gianforte, a technology entrepreneur, saw 50% support in the poll, with Quist, a musician, at 38%. The seat has been in Republican hands since 1997. Zinke won re-election by 15 points in November, while Donald Trump won the state by 21 points. The race is rated as likely Republican by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report, while Inside Elections has it as safe Republican. 

Democrat Jon Ossoff continues to lead the large field looking to fill the vacant seat in Georgia's 6th congressional district according to a new SurveyUSA poll for 11Alive in Atlanta. Ossoff receives 43% of the vote, with Republicans Karen Handel and Bob Gray receiving 15% and 14% respectively. Dan Moody is at 7% and Judson Hill gets 5%.

Candidates from all parties will participate on a single ballot in the April 18th election. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a top-two runoff will take place on June 20th. Absent an outright win, Ossoff will almost certainly move on to face one of the aforementioned Republicans in what should be a very competitive election.

Democrats Jimmy Gomez and Robert Lee Ahn were the top two vote getters in the April 4th special election in California's 34th congressional district. In the field of 24 candidates, Gomez received 28% of the vote, while Ahn saw 19% support. As neither received a majority of the vote, these two will meet in a runoff on June 6th.

The New York Times Upshot reports that nearly one in four white, working class voters who supported President Obama's reelection in 2012 abandoned the Democratic party in the 2016 presidential election, selecting either Donald Trump or a third-party candidate. It is this shift, not a major change in expected turnout, that propelled Mr. Trump to victory in the 2016 presidential election.

The Upshot reached this conclusion by reviewing actual voter files, comparing those to The Upshot's pre-election turnout projections in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The turnout patterns in these three states are representative of broader trends throughout the nation, according to the analysis.