Election News

Minnesota Sen. Al Franken (D) is expected to resign Thursday following the latest round of sexual harrassment allegations against the two-term Senator. If that does happen:

• Minnesota's Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton will appoint a replacement. Some names being mentioned include Rep. Keith Ellison and Rep. Tim Walz, along with Lt. Gov. Tina Smith.
• A special election will be held to coincide with the 2018 midterm elections. The winner of that election will serve the remainder of Franken's term, which is next up for election in 2020
• According to Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race will start at 'Leans Democrat'

Assuming Franken resigns, Crystal Ball will start next year's Senate special at Leans Democratic - more coming in the CB tomorrow morning

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) December 6, 2017

 This rating is likely due, at least in part, to the close result in the 2016 presidential election. Although Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972 - the longest such streak across the 50 states - Hillary Clinton only won here by 1.5%.  

A special election means that both Minnesota seats will be contested in 2018. At this time, Sen. Amy Klobuchar looks 'safe' for the regularly scheduled election.

Three new polls for the Alabama special election early this week have not added much clarity to the race. Roy Moore leads by 7% in a survey by Strategy Research, and by 3% in the latest Emerson College poll. On the other hand, Gravis Marketing gives Doug Jones a four-point lead.

The Strategy Research poll was taken Monday evening, after that day's endorsement of Moore by President Trump. It is not known how much of an impact this had on the result.

UPDATE: Conyers is leaving the House immediately. Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder will determine the date of a special election to fill the seat. It may well be Conyers vs. Conyers in the primary that precedes the election for this safe Democratic seat.

Michigan Democratic Rep. John Conyers, the longest-serving current member of the U.S. House, announced his retirement Tuesday. From CNN:

Republican Roy Moore leads Democrat Doug Jones by six points in the latest poll of the December 12th Alabama Senate special election. The poll, conducted by CBS News and YouGov, gives Moore 49% to 43% for Jones. 

This is the fifth poll of the race to be released over the past week or so. Moore has had a five or six point margin over Jones in all but one of those surveys. Averaging all five of these gives Moore a 3.8% lead a little more than a week ahead of the December 12th special election.

Democratic Rep. Sander Levin of Michigan will not seek a 19th term in 2018. Levin, who is 86 years old, is in his 18th term. This makes him, at least for now, the 2nd most senior member of Michigan's congressional delegation, trailing only John Conyers, who is in his 27th term. 

Democrat Doug Jones has a small 3 point lead over Republican Roy Moore, a new Washington Post-Schar School poll finds. The result is well within the poll's margin of error, and points to a tight race just 10 days out from the December 12th special election for a U.S. Senate seat in Alabama.

The Dallas Morning News reports that Republican "Rep. Joe Barton, whose private life came under national scrutiny after sexual images he shared in an extramarital relationship were made public, won’t seek re-election." Now in his 17th term, Barton is the longest-serving member of the Texas congressional delegation. Barton serves the 6th congressional district, which sits mostly south of Dallas, but also includes parts of Arlington and other suburbs situated between Dallas and Forth Worth. Donald Trump won here by 12 points in 2016; as of this writing the seat remains 'Safe Republican'.

Republican Roy Moore leads Democrat Doug Jones by 5 points in the Alabama Senate race, a new poll from JMC Analytics finds. This is a 9 point reversal from their last survey, which had Jones up by 4. That survey was taken November 9-11, just as the most serious charge leveled against Mr. Moore, an encounter with a 14 year old girl, was becoming public. To that end, a rebound for Moore was not unexpected. JMC Analytics notes that:

"Since the last poll, both Republicans in general and Roy Moore specifically have regained their plurality leads, and this arguably can be attributed to existing partisan preferences’ reasserting themselves: in the last poll, Moore was tied 47-47% among male voters and trailed 42-48% among women. While he still trails by a similar 44-50% among women (leaners included), he has rebounded among men and leads 54-37%. Similarly, among self-identified evangelicals, the 57-34% support he had in the last poll is now 64-29%. The numbers barely changed among non-evangelicals, where his 22-73% poll deficit is now 23-72%." 

Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez, a longtime advocate for immigration reform and a senior member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus will not seek reelection in 2018, Fox News reports. The announcement comes early in the state's short filing period, where candidates for Congress, governor and other offices submit their nominating petitions for 2018. The deadline* to file is December 4th, with the Illinois primary scheduled for March 20th.

The 13-term Democrat represents one of the bluest districts in the country; Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump by 68 points in 2016. It is also an outstanding example of gerrymandering. Per Wikipedia, "The northern portion [of the district] is largely Puerto Rican, while the southern portion is heavily Mexican-American. The two sections are on opposite sides of the city and are only connected by a piece of Interstate 294 to the west; the highway is in the district while the surrounding areas are not." 

We've rolled over our interactive gubernatorial map to reflect the 36 states holding elections in 2018. New Jersey and Virginia, both of whom elected new governors earlier this month, have been removed.

While most 2018 focus is on which party will control the House and/or Senate in Congress after the midterm elections, these gubernatorial races will greatly influence which party controls the House over the next decade. That's because almost all the 2018 winners will be in office when redistricting begins after the 2020 Census. In most states, the legislature redraws congressional districts, while the governor wields veto power.