Election News

In the Keystone State, it appears as though Trump ally Rep. Lou Barletta (R, PA-11) is going to run. While there are other candidates running, Barletta would have the biggest profile, although Casey’s two victories both have been fairly comfortable."

Barletta was an earlier supporter of President Trump, who, in-turn, has urged the Congressman to run for the Senate. The state is one of 33 Senate seats up for election in 2018. Create and share your forecast with our Interactive Senate Map.

Update on House Retirements

Barletta becomes the 21st House member to announce they are not seeking reelection to that body in 2018. The updated list is here:

Our last update, from early August, also showed 21 announced retirements. In the interim, Colorado's Ed Perlmutter reversed his earlier decision and will seek reelection in 2018. Perlmutter had previously announced a run for Colorado Governor. However, his path to that office was not looking promising. He withdrew from the race in mid-July. 

All 435 House seats are up in 2018. Create your forecast with our Interactive House Map.

This off-year special election came about after former Sen. Jeff Sessions resigned to become the U.S. Attorney General in the Trump administration. Gov. Robert Bentley appointed Luther Strange, then the state's Attorney General, to take Session's spot, scheduling a special election in November of 2018 to fill the seat for the final two years of Session's term. At the time, Strange was investigating Bentley regarding a purported relationship the governor was having with an aide. This raised a few eyebrows in the state.

Bentley eventually resigned, and was succeeded by Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey. She moved the special election to this year. 

Strange's main challengers in the primary were Roy Moore, former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court and Mo Brooks, who represents Alabama's 5th District in the U.S. House of Representatives.  Moore was suspended from the bench for ethics violations, and subsequently resigned his position to run for Senate. Having been eliminated from the Senate race, Brooks has plenty of time to decide if he wants to defend his House seat in 2018.

This seat has been in Republican hands for about 20 years. While the seat is highly likely to stay with the GOP, a runoff win by the controversial Moore could lead to a more competitive general election than would otherwise be expected in this deep red state. 

Of the 21 leaving the House, 13 are Republicans (R), eight are Democrats (D). Eight (5R, 3D) are running for governor of their state, while five (3R, 2D) are running for U.S. Senate. One Democrat is running for president in 2020. The remaining seven (5R, 2D) are retiring, or are not currently seeking another office. 15 seats (9R, 6D) are considered safe for the incumbent party, while the other six (4R, 2D) are expected to be at least somewhat competitive.

All 435 House seats will be up for election in 2018. 

Donnelly is among the more vulnerable Democrats in 2018. The race is currently rated toss-up by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. An interactive version of that forecast can be found here.

Rokita will be the 20th House member to announce a departure from that body in 2018. Most are running for U.S. Senate or to be Governor of their state. 

Beyond the many obvious reasons why a poll 900 days before an election is of limited predictive value, we wanted to highlight the note at the bottom of the poll's report:

"This is only the second time since the New Hampshire Poll began in 1976 that potential challengers of the same party were tested against an incumbent president. The first time was in the September 1978 New Hampshire Poll when Jerry Brown and Edward Kennedy were included in a ballot question with Jimmy Carter. In that poll among likely Democratic primary voters, Kennedy took the lead with 40%, followed by Carter at 25%, Brown at 13%, and with 22% undecided."

As in today's poll, the incumbent president -- then Jimmy Carter -- trailed by double digits.  However, Carter would go on to win the 1980 New Hampshire primary by nearly 10% and would be renominated for a 2nd term. Carter would eventually be defeated in the 1980 presidential election.    

At this point, most are indicating they would only be active in 2020 if President Trump declines to run for a second term. Of course, that could change pending the outcome of the Russia investigation, the results of the 2018 Midterms and the president's popularity. It is worth noting that election year nomination challenges to incumbent presidents have not been particularly successful. At the same time, they are indicative of a split and this usually portends the party's defeat in November.

While no date is set, the 2020 Iowa caucuses are about 900 days away. 

Over the past couple weeks, there have been three additions. In Indiana, Republican Luke Messer (IN-6) has announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate. Note that he may be joined in that race by his colleague, Republican Todd Rokita (IN-4). In Tennessee, 16-term Republican John Duncan Jr. (TN-2) has announced his retirement. Finally, as reported last week, Democrat John Delaney (MD-6), will be retiring from the House to run for president in 2020.

All three of these seats are currently rated as safe for the incumbent party, although there is some possibility that the Democratic-held seat in Maryland could become more competitive.

The House currently has 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats. Utah's 3rd district is vacant, to be filled by a special election on November 7th. All 435 House seats will be up for election in 2018.