Election News

New Feature: Save and share maps

With heightened interest in these gubernatorial races, we've begun a process of upgrading the Interactive 2018 Governor Map. The first part of that, saving and sharing maps via social media, is now live. As with the presidential and Senate maps, click the 'Share Map' button that will be visible below the map (after you make one or more changes). Once you click that, the social media buttons below the map will become active, and you can share your specific projection via social media or email. The map image can also be embedded on a web page via the rightmost button.

In the table below, we've embedded the current race ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. Select any of them to use as a starting point for your projection.

Sabato's Crystal Ball

These are the default projections when you reset the map. We'll be adding other starting views in the weeks ahead.

The Cook Political Report

Inside Elections

Inside Elections uses a 'tilt' rating between 'toss-up' and 'lean'. Illinois is 'tilt Democratic', while Ohio is 'tilt Republican'. We show these as 'lean' on the map below. Alaska is 'lean' independent.

* Democrat Phil Murphy replaced Republican Chris Christie on this date. 

^ Assumes no early departures due to death or resignation. New Hampshire and Vermont have two-year terms; those seats will be contested again in November, 2020. It is a moot point with Vermont, as the state has one at-large congressional district. 

Related:  List of House Retirements | 2018 Senate Interactive Map | 2018 House Interactive Map

Serving #CA49 has been the privilege of a lifetime. From the bottom of my heart - thank you - to everyone for your support and the honor of serving you all these years. My full statement on my decision not to seek reelection: https://t.co/zjlkeiqnzs

— Darrell Issa (@DarrellIssa) January 10, 2018

Issa is the 2nd California Republican to retire this week. Ed Royce announced his retirement on Monday.  That race moved from Leans Republican to Toss Up.

Worth Noting: Ratings for these races assume a Democrat vs. a Republican face off in November. However, California has a non-partisan primary, where all candidates compete on a single ballot, with the top two, regardless of party, moving on to November. Depending on the composition of the ballot it is possible for two candidates from the same party to advance to November, even in swing districts like Royce's 39th and Issa's 49th.

45 members of the House are retiring or seeking another office in 2018. Arizona Rep. Martha McSally will be added to this list Friday if, as expected, Rep. Martha McSally (R, AZ-2) announces her candidacy for U.S. Senate in Arizona. Ohio's Pat Tiberi (R, OH-12) will be removed from the list when he resigns on January 15th.

Arpaio just announced his entry to the race yesterday, with McSally expected to officially join the race Friday.

The case is likely to be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

North Carolina's current congressional districts can be seen on the map below, which is a partial preview of a state page from our soon to be launched updated House map. Each state will have its own map, and there will be a national map that can be zoomed and panned to view any desired region of the country. All the maps will be interactive and will work in conjunction with each other.

Included on the state pages will be information on the incumbent and a race rating for 2018. Additionally, they will show each district's margins from 2016, both from the race for Congress and the presidential election. The results in North Carolina highlight how effective the state legislature's gerrymander was --- none of the 13 districts was decided by less than 12%. 

The Washington Examiner reports that "Arpaio, a close ally of President Trump and former sheriff known for his provocative approach to combating illegal immigration, is running for Senate in Arizona." Meanwhile, Politico's Kevin Robillard tweets that Arizona Republican Rep. Martha McSally has "special announcements" set for Friday. It is likely that she will enter the race at that time.

McSally has events scheduled beginning in Tucson then moving on to Phoenix and Prescott. Her 2nd district covers the Southeastern corner of Arizona, including much of Tucson. It was reported in early November that McSally was planning to join the race, so her expected announcement will not be a surprise.

The new entrants set up a three-way battle for the Republican nomination. McSally, in her 2nd term in Congress, is the preferred candidate of the establishment. The conservative Ward has received support from President Trump and an endorsement from Steve Bannon, although she's distanced herself from Bannon in recent days. Arpaio is likely to appeal to many of the voters drawn to Ward. This could actually ease McSally's path to the nomination.

Whomever emerges as the nominee will likely face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in the general election. That contest is seen as a toss-up at this time. 

McSally's district is also seen as a toss-up. While she won reelection by 14% last November, Hillary Clinton won the district by 5%. It is one of just 23 districts nationwide that elected a Republican to Congress and voted for Clinton over Trump.

While Royce won reelection by nearly 15% in 2016, the district is one of just 23 nationwide that elected a Republican to Congress and voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Clinton won here by 8.6%. With the incumbent retiring, Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved this race to toss-up from Leans Republican.

Royce brings to 44 the number of House members retiring or seeking another office; that's over 10% of the body's 435 seats.

Congressman Ron DeSantis is a brilliant young leader, Yale and then Harvard Law, who would make a GREAT Governor of Florida. He loves our Country and is a true FIGHTER!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 22, 2017

DeSantis represents the 6th district, which runs from south of Jacksonville through Daytona Beach to north of Orlando. Both DeSantis and Donald Trump won here by 17 points in 2016, and the district is seen as safe Republican.

The gubernatorial race is one of 36 to be held in 2018. It is considered a toss-up at this point.

43 House members have announced they aren't running in 2018. One of them, Ohio's Pat Tiberi, will be leaving Congress on January 15th. Gov. John Kasich has set August 7th as the date for a special election, which will be preceded by a primary on May 8th.

Related: Full list of House Retirements

Separately, Ohio Republican Pat Tiberi, who announced this past October that he would leave Congress by the end of January, has set January 15th as his departure date. Gov. John Kasich, who represented the 12th district prior to Tiberi (both of them served nine terms) will set the date for a special election. Donald Trump won this district by about 11% in 2016 and it likely will remain in Republican hands.

Shuster represents Pennsylvania's 9th district, which covers a large part of the south-central part of the state. The seat is safely Republican. Donald Trump won the district by over 42 points in 2016, his largest margin anywhere in the state. 

Shuster becomes the third Pennsylvania U.S. House member - all Republicans - to pass on the 2018 race. Rep. Charlie Dent (PA-15) is also retiring, while Rep. Lou Barletta (PA-11) is running for U.S. Senate. 

This is the first House retirement announcement of 2018. There are now 41 members on the list of departures, including 27 Republicans and 14 Democrats. One of the Republicans, Ohio's Pat Tiberi, is expected to leave Congress this month.