Election News

With state-level polling expected to significantly pick up in the weeks ahead, we will be transitioning this page in the near future to reflect the polling average for each state, as opposed to the most recent poll.

Each state's most recent poll includes a link to all the polls for that state. There is also a separate link on the page to the national polls. These pages are divided into two sections. The top half just looks at Clinton vs. Trump, while the bottom section includes poll tests that include one or more 3rd parties*. 

 * Some polls are including separate queries for Clinton/Trump and Clinton/Trump/Named 3rd Party. Where both are available, each result is used in the appropriate table. Where the only question is Clinton/Trump/Named 3rd Party, that result is used in both tables. Finally, if the only question is Clinton/Trump, there is no entry for that poll in the 3rd party table.

Three presidential debates are scheduled this fall. The second one is October 9th in St. Louis, the final one October 19th in Las Vegas. A single vice presidential debate will be held October 4th in Farmville, Virginia.

Looking at these current results vs. late June polls from the same pollsters finds the largest shift in the ABC/Washington Post poll, which showed Clinton with a 12 point lead last month. There was no change in the NBC poll's five point spread, while CNN showed Clinton gaining two points on Trump.

Each pollster also did a heat that included Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein. Both continue to attract significiant interest for 3rd party candidates, with Gary Johnson getting as much as 13% support. The addition of these two did not significantly affect the overall spread between Clinton and Trump, indicating they are impacting the presumptive Democratic and Republican nominees roughly equally.

For those interested, we will be adding results for Johnson and Stein to our polling pages within the next few days.

There have been quite a few state polls this week, which have led to some shifts in the map. Most notably, Colorado and Virginia have moved from toss-up to leaning Clinton. On the other hand, national polls have been showing a tightening race. Since state polling isn't as frequent at this point in the campaign, this map may not fully capture the current state of the race.

This lack of frequency and/or recency can also yield some unlikely results. States like Kansas and Mississippi are not likely to stay where they are now as more data comes in.

The map below takes the polling map and applies the 2012 outcomes for unpolled states. Click it for an interactive version. 

Whether Pence or someone else, a formal announcement of Trump's choice is expected at 11:00AM Friday morning.

I will be making the announcement of my Vice Presidential pick on Friday at 11am in Manhattan. Details to follow.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 14, 2016

According to the Times: "Clinton has emerged from the F.B.I. investigation into her email practices as secretary of state a wounded candidate with a large and growing majority of voters saying she cannot be trusted."

Overall, Clinton leads by 3.2% in the 270toWin Average of National Polls. 

Fully 20% of respondents, one out of every five registered voters, would not choose either Clinton or Trump. We looked back at some 2012 national polls conducted around the same time, and generally found this number to be less than 10%. For example, the same NYT/CBS poll in mid-July, 2012 also showed a tied race, but only 7% didn't prefer Barack Obama or Mitt Romney.

Many of those 20% may be looking for another option. As it turns out, the poll also tested a three-way race including Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson. Here the race was tied at 36%, with Johnson getting 12%. It is worth noting that if Johnson can reach an average of 15% in national polls, he could qualify for the first presidential debate, scheduled for September 26th in Dayton, Ohio.  The specific criteria are as follows:

"Under the 2016 criteria, in addition to being Constitutionally eligible, candidates must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College, and have a level of support of at least 15% of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination. The polls to be relied upon will be selected based on the quality of the methodology employed, the reputation of the polling organizations and the frequency of the polling conducted. CPD will identify the selected polling organizations well in advance of the time the criteria are applied.

The CPD's determination with respect to participation in the CPD's first-scheduled debate will be made after Labor Day 2016, but sufficiently in advance of the first-scheduled debate to allow for orderly planning."

Donald Trump

NPR listed eleven prospective running mates for Donald Trump. The list is comprised of four current Senators, four current Governors and three former officeholders. Trump has said he's likely to pick someone with political experience. Since the NPR article came out (July 7), a military name has surfaced: Retired Lt. General Michael T. Flynn. 

Trump is likely to make a decision this week, with the Republican convention starting next Monday in Cleveland. One reported frontrunner, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, faces a Friday noon deadline to appear on the ballot for reelection or as vice presidential candidate. State law precludes him from doing both.

Hillary Clinton

Having achieved some level of party harmony with the endorsement of Bernie Sanders, Clinton can now finalize her choice of a running mate in advance of the Democratic convention, beginning July 25 in Philadelphia. NPR lists 8 possibilities in their article out July 12th.

Virginia Senator Tim Kaine is frequently cited as a frontrunner. Supporters of Sanders might be more enthusiastic with a choice from the more progressive wing of the party, such as Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio or Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. The article notes that Labor Secretary Tom Perez is very popular with labor unions and is a close friend of the presumptive Democratic nominee.

The rally is scheduled to begin at 11:00AM Eastern Time.

Clinton's expected general election opponent, Donald Trump, took to Twitter with his thoughts on the endorsement:  

Bernie Sanders, who has lost most of his leverage, has totally sold out to Crooked Hillary Clinton. He will endorse her today - fans angry!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 12, 2016

All 3 pundits that we follow on our Senate Race Ratings page reclassified the race to toss-up with this change. The PredictIt price for the Indiana Democratic Senate nominee more than doubled, from 24 cents to 57 cents as of Monday afternoon.

According to Sabato's Crystal Ball, 11 of this year's 34 Senate races are seen as competitive, defined here as toss-up or leaning to one party. All but one of these are currently held by Republicans. Democrats need to gain 4 or 5 seats to take control in 2017. Those ratings are reflected on the map below. Click it for an interactive version you can use to create and share your own 2016 Senate forecast.