Election News

Minnesota governor Mark Dayton will announce his choice for his state's next U.S. Senator Wednesday morning at 10AM (11AM ET). The appointment will take over after Al Franken leaves the Senate, although the incumbent Senator still hasn't said when he plans to actually resign. It seems a bit odd to name a replacement before the actual resignation, but here we are.

Here's a list of five people the governor may choose, from Minnesota Public Radio.

Two new polls paint completely different pictures of tomorrow's Senate special election in Alabama. Fox News gives Democrat Doug Jones has a 10 point lead over Republican Roy Moore. The last poll showing Jones with this kind of lead was the last Fox News poll in mid November, which showed him up by 8 points. 

The most recent polling in Alabama has become more consistent. It shows Republican Roy Moore with a mid-single digit lead over Democrat Doug Jones heading into Tuesday's long-awaited, high-stakes Senate election.

Michigan governor Rick Snyder has set November 6th, 2018 for a special election to fill the seat of Rep. John Conyers, who resigned earlier in the week. That date coincides with the midterm elections, meaning voters on that date will select a representative for the final two months of Conyer's term, as well as a representative for the two-year term beginning in January, 2019.

It also means that residents of the 13th district, which covers most of Detroit, will have no representation in Congress for nearly a year. The Republican governor's stated reasons for the delay are around cost, as well as giving both prospective candidates and voters ample time to prepare. We're sure it has nothing to do with this being a safe Democratic seat.

Arizona Republican Trent Franks released a statement Thursday indicating he will leave Congress early in 2018. Franks noted in his statement that he is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for inquiring with two female staffers about whether they would be a surrogate for his child. 

Franks' resignation will be effective January 31, 2018.

Minnesota Senator Al Franken (D) announced his intention to resign in a speech on the Senate floor Thursday morning. Many of his Democratic colleagues had called for his resignation on Wednesday, after additional allegations of sexual harrassment became public. The date of his Senate departure has not yet been announced. 

The state's Democratic governor, Mark Dayton, will appoint Franken's replacement. Speculation is centering around the state's Lt. Gov., Tina Smith. Regardless of who is picked, a special election will be held, coinciding with the midterm elections on November 6th, 2018. The winner of that election will serve the final two years of the six-year term. The next regularly scheduled election will be in November, 2020.

Minnesota Sen. Al Franken (D) is expected to resign Thursday following the latest round of sexual harrassment allegations against the two-term Senator. If that does happen:

• Minnesota's Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton will appoint a replacement. Some names being mentioned include Rep. Keith Ellison and Rep. Tim Walz, along with Lt. Gov. Tina Smith.
• A special election will be held to coincide with the 2018 midterm elections. The winner of that election will serve the remainder of Franken's term, which is next up for election in 2020
• According to Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race will start at 'Leans Democrat'

Assuming Franken resigns, Crystal Ball will start next year's Senate special at Leans Democratic - more coming in the CB tomorrow morning

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) December 6, 2017

 This rating is likely due, at least in part, to the close result in the 2016 presidential election. Although Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972 - the longest such streak across the 50 states - Hillary Clinton only won here by 1.5%.  

A special election means that both Minnesota seats will be contested in 2018. At this time, Sen. Amy Klobuchar looks 'safe' for the regularly scheduled election.

Three new polls for the Alabama special election early this week have not added much clarity to the race. Roy Moore leads by 7% in a survey by Strategy Research, and by 3% in the latest Emerson College poll. On the other hand, Gravis Marketing gives Doug Jones a four-point lead.

The Strategy Research poll was taken Monday evening, after that day's endorsement of Moore by President Trump. It is not known how much of an impact this had on the result.

UPDATE: Conyers is leaving the House immediately. Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder will determine the date of a special election to fill the seat. It may well be Conyers vs. Conyers in the primary that precedes the election for this safe Democratic seat.

Michigan Democratic Rep. John Conyers, the longest-serving current member of the U.S. House, announced his retirement Tuesday. From CNN:

Republican Roy Moore leads Democrat Doug Jones by six points in the latest poll of the December 12th Alabama Senate special election. The poll, conducted by CBS News and YouGov, gives Moore 49% to 43% for Jones. 

This is the fifth poll of the race to be released over the past week or so. Moore has had a five or six point margin over Jones in all but one of those surveys. Averaging all five of these gives Moore a 3.8% lead a little more than a week ahead of the December 12th special election.