There are just under four months until the 2018 midterm elections on November 6th. On this page, we present two battleground House maps based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections. 218 seats are needed to control the House in the 116th Congress that will be seated in January, 2019.
Both maps are interactive - click/tap a map to use it as a starting point to create your own 2018 House forecast.
Consensus Forecast: This first map is based on a calculated average rating of the three forecasters except that the darkest red/blue color is only used for those districts rated safe by all three forecasters. This gives us a broader view of the universe of seats that may be competitive on Election Day. Currently, 324 seats are seen as safe for the incumbent party, with 111 having various levels of competitiveness. Of those, about 90 are currently in GOP hands.
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Most Competitive: This next map categorizes a district as competitive if at least one of the three forecasters gives it a rating of toss-up, tilt, or leans. It is a broader view of the more competitive races than one would get by looking at a single forecast. Absent a real wave election, these are the seats where control is likely to be won or lost. Republicans hold 58 of these 66 districts.
Note that the above narrative is as of July 13. As the forecasts evolve in the months ahead, the images in this article will update to reflect the then-current outlook.
Michael Cloud was sworn in as the new representative for Texas' 27th congressional district late Tuesday. Cloud emerged victorious in a field of nine in a June 30 special election.
Republicans now hold 236 seats, Democrats 193 with 6 vacancies.
The next special election will be in Ohio's 12th congressional district on August 7th. This opening was created when Republican Pat Tiberi resigned in January. This race is seen as toss-up to leans Republican by various pundits, although the two most recent polls (JMC, Monmouth) had the GOP nominee up by about 10 points.
President Trump will nominate Brett Kavanaugh to replace Anthony Kennedy on the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh is a federal appeals court judge for the District of Columbia Circuit.
The U.S. Senate will need to confirm Kavanaugh. Given the importance of this nomination, we've compiled a list of contact information for all 100 U.S. Senators. This includes mailing address, phone, email and social media. We've also included some related election filters.
If you are strongly for or against the president's choice, these are the people that need to hear from you.
President Trump will announce his nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court Monday night. If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, this individual will fill the seat being vacated by the retiring Anthony Kennedy.
As of Monday afternoon, it was being reported that Trump had chosen a nominee. The names that have been getting the most attention are all federal appellate judges: Brett Kavanaugh, Raymond Kethledge, Amy Coney Barrett and Thomas Hardiman.
Kennedy has been the swing vote in recent years for many court decisions that have split the four more liberal and four more conservative justices. As Trump's nominee will almost certainly be more conservative than Kennedy, the elevation of this nominee may well shift the court to the right.
Given the importance of this nomination, we've compiled a list of contact information for all 100 U.S. Senators. This includes mailing address, phone, email and social media. We've also included some related election filters.
If you are strongly for or against the president's choice, these are the people that need to hear from you.
Despite the difficult math associated with 8 other candidates on the ballot, Republican Michael Cloud won an outright victory in the Texas 27th Congressional District special election on Saturday. By getting over 50% of the vote, Cloud avoided a runoff with 2nd place finisher, Democrat Eric Holguin.
Cloud will serve the remainder of former Rep. Blake Farenthold's term. Cloud and Holguin will face each other again in the November midterms, as both were nominated in the Texas primary runoff earlier this year.
Once Cloud is seated, Republicans will hold a 236-193 margin in the House, with six vacancies. The full list of vacancies is in the table below.
The next special election, on August 7, will fill the vacancy in Ohio's 12th District. This opening was created when Republican Pat Tiberi resigned in January. This race is seen as toss-up to leans Republican by various pundits, although the two most recent polls (JMC, Monmouth) had the GOP nominee up by about 10 points.
This Saturday before Independence Day offers up a special election to fill one of seven current Congressional vacancies. It is in Texas' 27th Congressional District. The seat became vacant in April when former Rep. Blake Farenthold resigned while under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.
The winner of the election will serve the remainder of Farenthold's term. However, with 9 candidates on the ballot - there was no primary - nobody is likely to achieve a majority of the vote. Under Texas law, the top two finishers would then move on to a runoff, most likely in September.
Polls close at 7:00 PM Central Time (8:00 Eastern). Results will appear in the table below, in partnership with Decision Desk HQ. Reload the page for the latest.
Texas has already held their 2018 midterm primaries. Michael Cloud won the Republican nomination, while Eric Holguin won the Democratic nomination. Regardless of who wins the seat in this special election (or subsequent runoff), those two plus Libertarian Daniel Tinus will be the only three of today's nine candidates also on the November ballot.
Outlook
This Corpus Christi-area district is heavily Republican. Both President Trump and Farenthold won here by about 24% in 2016. Michael Cloud will be a large favorite in November. He's most likely to win the special election as well, although lighter turnout - not to mention a pre-holiday weekend - will add some uncertainty to today's vote.
14th District (Democratic Primary): Ten-term incumbent Rep. Joe Crowley was ousted by political novice Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. At 28, she will become the youngest woman ever elected to Congress if, as expected, she wins in this heavily Democratic district in November. Crowley is one of the most prominent members of the Democratic caucus and had been in the narrative to become Speaker of the House should the Democrats take back that body in November.
9th District (Democratic): A close call for six-term incumbent Rep. Yvette Clarke who narrowly defeated another young challenger, 30 year old Adem Bunkeddeko.
11th District (Republican): Rep. Dan Donovan easily fended off former Rep. Michael Grimm, who wanted his old seat back. This is expected to be a competitive district in the fall; The win by the more moderate Donovan will make it slightly easier for Republicans in this competitive district, the only GOP-held one in New York City. (Donovan will face yet another political newcomer, former U.S. Army combat veteran Max Rose, who won the Democratic primary).
25th District (Democratic): Assembly Majority Leader Joseph Morelle got past several opponents for this safely Democratic seat that became vacant upon the death of Rep. Louise Slaughter earlier this year.
Governor: New York has a split calendar; the primary for statewide offices will be September 13th.
Governor (Democratic): Former NAACP head Ben Jealous emerged victorious from a large field. He will take on popular Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in November.
6th District (Democratic): Businessman David Trone won the primary for this seat being vacated by Rep. John Delaney, who is running for president in 2020. This seat is fairly safe for the Democrats, so Trone will likely be a member of Congress in 2019.
Governor (Republican): Gov. Henry McMaster won a competitive runoff with businessman John Warren. McMaster, who took over when Nikki Haley became U.N. Ambassador, will be favored to win his first full term in November
4th District (Republican): William Timmons won the runoff for this deep red seat being vacated by the retiring Rep. Trey Gowdy. He will be a strong favorite to win in the general election.
3rd District (Republican): Michael Guest won the runoff for this deep red seat being vacated by the retiring Rep. Gregg Harper. He will be a heavy favorite to win in November.
Governor: Both parties held contested primaries to replace Gov. Mary Fallin who is term-limited. On the Democratic side, former Attorney General Drew Edmondson easily won. The Republican nominee will be determined in an August 28th runoff between former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett and Tulsa businessman Kevin Stitt.
1st District (Republican): This seat was vacated when Rep. Jim Bridenstine was confirmed to head NASA. Per state law, the winner of the general election in November will be appointed to serve the final couple months of Bridenstine's term. The runoff between Tim Harris and Kevin Hern on August 28th will likely determine the next member of Congress in this deep red district.
Senator (Republican): As expected, Mitt Romney easily won the nomination and will be a prohibitive favorite in the November election. Sen. Orrin Hatch is retiring.
Three new Senate polls from CBS-You Gov offer up a mixed bag for both parties. Click/tap the state name for all polls of the race.
Arizona: Incumbent Republican Jeff Flake is retiring. The Democratic nominee is likely to be Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. She will face off against a Republican to be selected in the state's primary on August 28th. Sinema leads all three of her prospective general election rivals. She has an 8 point margin on Rep. Martha McSally and former state Sen. Kelli Ward. Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio trails Sinema by 20 points. The general election is currently seen as a toss-up on the expectation that the more mainstream McSally will win the nomination.
Florida: Like Arizona, this race is also seen as a toss-up. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is seeking a 4th term. He has drawn a formidable challenger in Gov. Rick Scott who cannot seek a 3rd term due to term limits. The poll has Scott with a 46% to 41% lead over Nelson.
Texas: Incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz has a 10 point lead over Rep. Beto O'Rourke, his Democratic challenger. This is pretty consistent with other polling in recent months. While Democrats are investing a lot in this race, Cruz remains favored to win.
Visit the Senate Ratings & Polls page to see the current pundit ratings for each of this year's 35 Senate races. States colored green have one or more polls available. Click/tap the state name to see those.
The New York Times reported that "The Supreme Court declined on Monday to address the central questions in two closely watched challenges to partisan gerrymandering, putting off for another time a ruling on the constitutionality of voting districts designed by legislatures to amplify one party’s political power."
The two cases in question were related to Wisconsin's redistricting plan as well as single congressional district in Maryland. As the Court had agreed to take on both cases, there was some expectation that it was ready to rule on this issue.
Barring any subsequent rulings on this topic, districts will next be redrawn after the 2020 Census, and will be first used in the 2022 Midterm elections.
As they aren't going anywhere, here's a map look at the 10 most gerrymandered districts* in the country, based on a 2014 study.
You may note that 8 of the 10 worst offenders have Democratic incumbents. However, there are multiple types of gerrymandering, and both parties are guilty. Generally, one can look to who is in control of the state legislature at the time of redistricting to place 'blame'. So, for example, Texas 35 was drawn to pack in Democratic voters, thus making it easier for Republicans to win more of the surrounding districts. On the other hand, Maryland 6, which encompasses the more conservative Western part of the state, was drawn to include enough Democratic-leaning areas to make that party more likely to win.
*We have omitted districts in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania from the list as they have been the subject of court-ordered redistricting since this study was done and no longer have the same boundaries as when the study was conducted
