Former Provo mayor John Curtis became the newest member of the U.S. House on Monday. He was seated less than a week after winning the special election in Utah's 3rd congressional district. Curtis won by over 30 points. This keeps the seat, vacated earlier this year by Jason Chaffetz, in Republican hands.
There are now 240 Republicans in the House, 194 Democrats. The one remaining vacancy, in Pennsylvania's 18th district, will be filled via special election on March 13, 2018. That seat was held by Republican Tim Murphy, who resigned last month. The race is currently rated 'Likely Republican'.
At least one additional vacancy is expected prior to the Pennsylvania election. Republican Pat Tiberi (OH-12) has announced he will leave Congress by January 31, 2018. Additionally, Republican Jim Bridenstine (OK-1) is awaiting confirmation as NASA administrator. Timing is unclear, but if/when it occurs, Bridenstine will need to resign.
Much like his Republican colleague Ted Poe (TX-02), who announced his retirement last week, Green represents a highly-gerrymandered district surrounding Houston. Hillary Clinton won over 70% of the vote here in 2016, besting Donald Trump by about 46 points.
There are now 35 House members not seeking reelection in 2018. Green is the 11th Democrat on the list.
Virginia Republican Bob Goodlatte, Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, will not seek reelection in 2018. Goodlatte is in his 13th term, and is another in a string of long-serving House Republicans to announce their departure in recent weeks.
Goodlatte represents a safe Republican district in the western part of the state. Donald Trump won here by 25% in 2016, and the area voted for Ed Gillespie by a 22% margin in the gubernatorial race just completed. The updated list of 2018 House retirements can be found here.
Rep. Ted Poe, a 7-term Republican from Texas, said he will retire at the end of this term. He is the 3rd long-serving Texas Republican, after Jeb Hensarling and Lamar Smith, to make such an announcement since late October.
Democrats emerged victorious in both gubernatorial contests Tuesday night. In the most closely-watched race, Ralph Northam defeated Ed Gillespie. With about 80% of the vote counted, Northam held a 6-point lead over his Republican challenger. Democrats hold the seat being vacated by Gov. Terry McAuliffe
In New Jersey, as expected, Democrat Phil Murphy defeated Republican Kim Guadagno. This represents a Democratic gain as Murphy will take over for departing Republican Gov. Chris Christie. Both McAuliffe and Christie were term-limited.
We've updated our 2017-18 gubernatorial map to reflect the Democratic wins (both states are shown as 'Safe Democratic'. We'll roll this map over to reflect just the 2018 races - there are 36 of them - in the days ahead.
Frank LoBiondo, a 12-term Republican representing New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District, announced his retirement Tuesday. Politico notes that "the decision will open up a battleground district in southern New Jersey that LoBiondo has held easily since 1994. New Jersey's 2nd District backed President Donald Trump with 50.6 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 46 percent in 2016. But former President Barack Obama also won the seat twice with between 53 and 54 percent of the vote."
Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed the rating of the district from 'Safe Republican' to 'Toss-up'.
32 House members, including 22 Republicans have announced plans to retire and/or seek another elected office in 2018. That list may grow shortly: It was also reported Tuesday that Arizona House Republican Martha McSally will challenge Kelli Ward for the Republican nomination in the 2018 U.S. Senate race there. This is the seat being vacated by incumbent Republican Jeff Flake. No official announcement has been made yet.
Election Day on Tuesday will see gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as a special election to fill a vacancy in Utah's 3rd congressional district. The Virginia race is highly competitve, the other two less so.
Virginia Gubernatorial Election: Incumbent Democrat Terry McAuliffe is term-limited. Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam will represent the Democrats, while former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie is the Republican nominee. Gillespie lost a 2014 race for U.S. Senator from Virginia, although the race against incumbent Mark Warner was much closer than expected. Warner prevailed by less than 1%.
Most of the final polls give Northam a small lead; the Real Clear Politics Average has Northam up by 3% (as of late morning Nov. 6). Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report have the race rated as 'Leans Democratic. Inside Elections calls it 'Tilt Democratic' - this is a categorization between toss-up and lean that the other two pundits don't use. Polls are open from 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM Eastern Time.
CNN breaks the race down by geography, noting that Northam should perform very well in the areas around Washington, DC. "To offset the wide Democratic margins in Northern Virginia, Gillespie will need to run up the score in the more rural parts of of the commonwealth, particularly in the southwest and Southside regions." In the end, CNN notes, the race may well be decided by voters in two exurban DC counties - Loudoun and Prince William.
For more on the candidates and the issues in this election, see this article from The Washington Post.
New Jersey Gubernatorial Election: Term-limited Republican Chris Christie will be replaced by Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno (R) or businessman and former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy (D). The incumbent is highly unpopular, complicating Guadagno's efforts to prevail in this traditionally blue state. Recent polls, such as this one from Monmouth University, all show lead of 14-16 points for the Democratic nominee, who is expected to win. Polls are open from 6:00 AM to 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
Utah's 3rd Congressional District Special Election: The race is to fill the open seat created by the departure of former Rep. Jason Chaffetz. It will be contested again in 2018 as part of the midterm elections. The Republican nominee is the Mayor of Provo, John Curtis. The Democratic nominee is a physician, Kathie Allen. Curtis led by 27 points in a recent poll, and is highly likely to prevail. Polls are open 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM Mountain Time.
In addition to the above, Virginia and New Jersey will have some state legislative elections. A number of large cities will also elect mayors tomorrow. These include: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis, New York City and Seattle.
Looking ahead, the Alabama Senate special election is on Tuesday, December 12th. Next year will bring the midterm elections, where all 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats will be contested. 36 gubernatorial races will also be held.
This article was first published on November 5th; updated November 6th
Republican Lamar Smith of Texas, head of the House Science Committee, announced his retirement Thursday afternoon. He is in his 16th term, and is the 2nd longest-serving member of the Texas House delegation. Only Rep. Joe Barton has served longer. Smith will serve out the remainder of his term.
Smith represents Texas' 21st district, a somewhat oddly-shaped area that sits primarily west of Austin and San Antonio, although it also runs north-south near I-35 between those two cities.
Smith easily won reelection last November by 21%. However, Donald Trump only won here by 10 points over Hillary Clinton, a sharp drop in margin from 2012, when Mitt Romney took the district by 22% over Barack Obama. At this point, however, the district remains as 'Safe Republican'.
Smith is the 4th of 36 Texas House members to pass on reelection in 2018. His announcement comes just two days after another powerful Texas House Republican, Jeb Hensarling announced his retirement. Overall, 31 House members have announced their departure, including 21 Republicans.
We've launched the 2018 Senate Race Ratings page, which summarizes how each race is viewed by three pundits. Those ratings form the basis for the 'Battle for Control' table, which shows where each party stands in its efforts to hold or regain majority status.
While the Senate is narrowly divided by party, the Battle for Control highlights the uphill battle Democrats have to take the majority in 2019. The party needs to reach 51, a net gain of 3 seats. However, Democrats currently hold 25 of the 34 Senate seats to be contested in 2018*. Once we back those out and add back in the seats the pundits all see as safe for the incumbent party, Republicans are at 48, just two shy of the 50 needed for control. After adding back in the seats that are unlikely to be competitive, Republicans have a 49 to 38 advantage.
Putting it all together - at this point - Democrats need to sweep all 13 competitive races to regain control. This includes next month's Alabama special election, which would be a pretty significant upset in that deep red state.
The pundit ratings come from Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections (formerly the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report). Note that there is still considerable variation across pundits in some states (e.g., Maine). This is expected to lessen as the 2018 match-ups take shape, and there's a better handle on the overall political environment heading into these midterm elections.
Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas announced Tuesday that he will not seek reeelection in 2018. The Dallas-area Republican, now in his 8th term, is chair of the powerful House Financial Services Committee. He will serve out the remainder of his term.
In this deep red district, Hensarling easily won reelection last November with nearly 81% of the vote. The Democratic Party did not field a candidate; Libertarian Ken Ashby took the other 19%. Donald Trump won here by about 29 points.
Hensarling is the 20th Republican, and 30th member overall, planning to retire or run for another office in 2018.
