September 12, 2015
Former Texas governor Rick Perry became the first declared Republican candidate to leave the 2016 race, suspending his campaign on Friday. Perry was averaging less than 1% in recent polls and would have again been relegated to a secondary forum in this Wednesday's CNN-hosted Republican debate.
This leaves 16 Republicans in the 2016 field.
Suspending a Campaign vs. Ending It
If you've ever wondered why candidates 'suspend' their campaigns instead of just declaring them over, it mostly boils down to two things. First, in the unlikely event that the world changes, it is easier to revive the campaign. However, the main reason is that it takes a while to wind down a campaign, paying off bills/debts etc. This article from 2012 discusses some of this in a bit more detail.
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September 10, 2015
The latest Republican presidential poll from CNN | ORC shows Donald Trump at 32% and Dr. Ben Carson at 19%. These two candidates now have the support of over half the Republican electorate or more than the other 15 candidates combined. In the last CNN poll, from mid-August, Trump was at 24%, Carson at 9%.
In the 270toWin average of Republican polls, Trump, Carson and Jeb Bush are 1-2-3, with Trump enjoying roughly double the support of Carson who, in turn, almost has double the support of Bush.
The upcoming Republican debate, hosted by CNN at the Reagan presidential library, will take place next Wednesday, September 16 at 8PM EDT. It will be preceded by a forum for lower-polling candidates, which will take place at 6PM.
CNN recently changed the debate criteria so that Carly Fiorina, who has polled well since the first debate, could participate. At this point, it appears that there will be 16 candidates participating between the two debates. The first debate will include all 10 from the first Fox debate plus Fiorina (names are those in the above image), with Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki invited to the earlier event.
September 6, 2015
New NBC News/Marist polling from Iowa and New Hampshire is out this Labor Day weekend and the news is not good for Hillary Clinton.
Democratic Primary/Caucus: Clinton is under 40% in both Iowa and New Hampshire, a loss of about 10% in both states from the last NBC News/Marist survey in July. Clinton trails Bernie Sanders by 9% in New Hampshire, while her 11% lead in Iowa is down from 24% in July. In a separate survey without Joe Biden included, the margins were about the same, indicating Biden's supporters would split roughly 50/50 if they had to choose Clinton or Sanders.
Republican Primary/Caucus: Donald Trump leads in both states, coming in at just under 30% support. In Iowa, only Ben Carson comes close, at 22%; no other candidate exceeds 6%. In New Hampshire, John Kasich and Ben Carson trail trump, both in the low teens. It is interesting to also note regional differences in candidate support; see table below. That's a reminder that national polling should be viewed somewhat skeptically, as the nomination will be decided based on the results of state-level contests that take place over several months.
General Election: The poll surveyed Clinton or Biden vs. Bush or Trump. The most notable results were that Bush has opened up an 11 point lead over Clinton in Iowa and that Biden outperforms her vs. these prospective Republican challengers. Keep in mind that Biden is not in the race, and he's not being subject to the attacks and negative publicity that accompany a campaign. Visit our 2016 general election poll page to follow all the polls.
September 3, 2015
A new national poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP) points to a competitive general election, although the named Democratic nominee usually has a small lead.
PPP surveyed 16 possible match-ups, 9 involving Hillary Clinton, 5 Bernie Sanders and 2 Joe Biden.Clinton leads in 8 of the 9 heats. She is tied with Ben Carson, and leads Scott Walker by 7; all the other results fall within those two ranges.
Joe Biden was surveyed against Bush and Trump, leading Bush by 3 points and Trump by 6 points. Bernie Sanders lost 3 of the 5 match-ups he was in, most notably by 6 points to Ben Carson.
Visit our 2016 presidential election poll page for all the national and state-level general election surveys.
Bored at the office? Try our States I've Visited Electoral Map.
September 1, 2015
There may be 11 participants in the next 10 person Republican debate, based on new rules announced by CNN today.
Originally, CNN said that only candidates in the top 10 from polls taken from July 16 to September 10 could particpate. While similar to the Fox News approach for the first debate, it failed to account for shifts in public opinion occurring as a result of that event.
Fiorina participated in an earlier forum at the August 6 Fox debate, and her strong performance has propelled her to well within the top 10 in polls taken since then.
The new CNN rules will keep the original criteria, while adding a separate criteria to include those in the top 10 for polls taken post-debate until September 10.
This likely means 11 participants at the September 16 debate, including the 10 candidates from the first debate plus Fiorina. As it turns out, this appears to be a good break point, based on the average of the most recent polls:
Here's the full CNN statement on the rules change. The debate will take place at the Reagan Presidential Library.
August 27, 2015
The latest national poll from Quinnipiac shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton continuing to lead the field in their prospective parties. Looking ahead to November, it shows Joe Biden outperforming Clinton and Bernie Sanders in hypothetical match-ups vs. Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio or Trump.
Republican Nomination: Trump continues to lap the Republican field, earning 28% in this newest survey. Ben Carson was second at 12%, followed by Bush, Rubio and Ted Cruz at 7%. Walker was next at 6%, losing about half of the support he received in the last Quinnipiac poll at the end of July.
Democratic Nomination: Clinton led with 45%, with Sanders at 22% and Biden at 18%. Clinton has lost 10% off the 55% she received in the last Quinnipiac poll. Half of that support has moved to Sanders, half to Biden.
General Election: The Democratic nominee was ahead in most of these match-ups, although usually pretty close. What was most interesting is that VP Biden, still not in the race, is outperforming his prospective rivals vs. Republicans. Of course, the very fact that he's not in the race might have something to do with this.
Quinnipiac also asked "What is the first word that comes to mind..." in regards to Clinton, Bush and Trump. We've compiled the top 10 for each candidate below; use the links in the preceding sentence to go to the full list. Some amusing responses.
August 25, 2015
How unlikely would the above headline have seemed a few months ago? In the latest New Hampshire poll from Pubic Policy Polling, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders lead the field for their respective parties.
Trump is destroying the Republican opposition in New Hampshire. His 35% share is more than 3 times that of his closest challengers, John Kasich and Carly Fiorina. Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are in single digits, at 7%.
Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in the 2nd consecutive poll of New Hampshire democrats, and has now taken the lead based on a 270toWin average of recent polls. Sanders enjoys a regional benefit here, being well-known as Senator from neighboring Vermont. That said, while Clinton leads in most other places, the outsized importance of New Hampshire as an early primary state should give added visibility to Sanders.
The New Hampshire primary is scheduled for February 9, 2016.
August 22, 2015
A new Texas poll of prospective Republican presidential nominees shows Donald Trump now leading Senator Ted Cruz. Trump received 24%, with Cruz following at 16%. Ben Carson was third with 12%. Jeb Bush was fourth at 9%. Former governor Rick Perry received just 4% support.
Just two months ago, a poll by the Texas Tribune showed Cruz at 20%, followed by Perry at 12% and Scott Walker at 10%. Trump received only 2%.
Bush remains in third place overall when averaging the two recent Texas polls. The Texas primary is scheduled for March 1, 2016, part of the 'SEC Primary' of 8 southern states.
Click or tap the image above to see who is leading the Republican polls in each state.
August 20, 2015
A new Quinnipiac poll of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania shows continued strength for Donald Trump on the Republican side; Hillary Clinton the Democratic side. However, that enthusiam wanes in the general election, with intraparty challengers doing as well as or better in general election match-ups.
In the general election, Quinnipiac tested Clinton, Biden and Sanders vs. Bush, Rubio and Trump. Among the more interesting findings:
- Bush and Rubio have moved well ahead of Clinton in Florida
- Biden does as well as, or better than Clinton vs. Republicans
- Bush and Rubio are outperforming Trump vs. Democrats
These new numbers have caused some changes on our polling-based Clinton vs. Republican 2016 electoral maps. You can also get to our new Sanders vs. Republicans maps from that preceding URL.
In the Republican primaries, Trump is ahead in Florida, notably taking the lead over home-state rivals Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in the Sunshine State. Trump also leads, by double digits, in Pennsylvania. In Ohio, that state's governor John Kasich leads, with Trump in 2nd.
Hillary Clinton continues to hold a wide margin on the Democratic primaries in all 3 states, where the results were basically the same. That said, she is now polling under 50% in all three states, a loss of 8-15 points since the last time Quinnipiac surveyed these states in June.
To see all the primary/caucus polls to this point, visit our Republican Nomination or Democratic Nomination pages. The individual state links are below the national polls.
August 18, 2015
Two new Republican polls out this week give Donald Trump about 25% of the Republican vote, keeping him well ahead of his nearest challengers. There was some variation behind Trump. In the CNN-ORC poll, Jeb Bush was the only other candidate to reach double digits, at 13%. Ben Carson, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio were bunched just under 10%. The Fox News poll showed a slightly greater preference for more conservative candidates, with Ben Carson and Ted Cruz trailing Trump with Bush in 4th place.
Trump continues to double his nearest competitors in the 270toWin poll average.
The 2nd Republican debate, hosted by CNN, will be held September 16 at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, CA. 16 candidates that averaged 1% or more in 3 national polls have been invited. Jim Gilmore was not, although he has until September 10 to make the cut.
As with the first debate, the field will be divided into two groups, with those in the top 10 making the main stage. At this point, it looks like 11 candidates will be fighting for those 10 slots. Carly Fiorina's strong performance in the 'kids's table' debate last month has propelled her into the top 10. This means that one of Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Fiorina, John Kasich or Chris Christie will likely be excluded. All 5 are tightly bunched within 1% at this time.