Election News

24 locations (21 states, DC, Guam and Virgin Islands) will receive a total of 211 bonus delegates for holding their 2020 nominating contest after March 31.  These are pledged delegates, bringing that total to 3,979. As such, the 'magic number' for winning on the first ballot is increased from 1,885 to 1,990. The total number of delegates, including 766 automatic delegates^, is now 4,745.

From an overall calendar perspective, this slightly reduces the proportion of pledged delegates available before April.  The pre-bonus estimated distribution:

There are two types of bonus delegates: Calendar and Cluster. The calendar bonus is 10% for locations holding their contest in April; 20% for those in May and June. The cluster bonus is an additional 15%, and is basically for holding a nominating contest on the same date as adjacent locations. In 2020, the only cluster bonus will be for six east coast states that have scheduled their primaries on April 28.

April (10% calendar bonus):  Alaska, Hawaii, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Wyoming

April (25% calendar + cluster bonus):  Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York*, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

May/June (20% calendar bonus): District of Columbia, Guam, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, Oregon, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, Virgin Islands, West Virginia

Note that the bonus is calculated off base delegates, which are approximately 85% of pledged delegates.

^ The Party's official term.  More commonly known as superdelegates.  With the addition of the bonus delegates, the proportion of automatic to total delegates is slightly reduced.

* Although likely to be April 28, New York's date remains tentative. As the largest recipient of bonus delegates (49), a change here would have a noticeable impact on the total bonus delegates.

Marchant's 24th congressional district is situated between Dallas and Fort Worth, and has become increasingly competitive in recent years. In 2014, Marchant won by 33% over his Democratic opponent; that dropped to 17% in 2016 and just 3% in 2018. At the presidential level, Mitt Romney won here by 22% in 2012, while Donald Trump's margin was just 6%.

Given these trends and an eight-term incumbent departing, the consensus rating for the district has shifted from 'Leans Republican' to 'Toss-up'.

2020 Election Calendar >>

February: As has become tradition, Iowa will kick the nominating calendar off with its caucuses on the 3rd. The first primary will be in New Hampshire the following Tuesday (the 11th). The other early states of Nevada and South Carolina will close out the month. These four states only account for about 4% of pledged delegates, but have an outsized influence on which candidates are viable.

Super Tuesday: March 3rd is by far the largest day on the 2020 calendar, with 16 contests scheduled. Two states, California and Texas will account for nearly half of the 1,358 pledged delegates that day. To gain more influence in the process, California has moved its primary up from June, where it had been held the last two presidential cycles.

Note that a majority of votes in California will be cast by mail, with the voting period beginning February 3, the same date as the Iowa caucuses. The state is notoriously slow at counting votes; we likely won't know the exact delegate allocation for several weeks.  The bottom line is that the number of candidates in the race is likely to be quite different from when the state starts voting until we have the final results. 

Remainder of March:  Even without Super Tuesday, March would be the busiest month on the Democratic calendar. An additional 12 contests are scheduled between March 10 and the 24th. The busiest day will be the 17th, with delegate-rich Florida, Illinois and Ohio holding primaries.  (Note that a recent change in Ohio law moved the primary from the 10th to the 17th for 2020).  

April:   The busiest day of the month looks to be the 28th, when New York (date is still tentative), Pennsylvania and four other east coast states hold primaries. These states may see their pledged delegate numbers increased by slightly more than 20%* from what is on the map above. They'll receive a delegate bonus for holding their contest in April as well as an additional one for participating in what the Party calls a "regional cluster". 

May and June: The calendar winds down, with the final event likely to be the Virgin Islands caucuses on June 6.  Locations holding their contests after April 30 will receive a larger calendar-based pledged delegate bonus.

* The calendar bonus for April is 10%, while the cluster bonus is an additional 15%. The bonus applies to 'base delegates', which are approximately 85% of total pledged delegates. 

Related: Map of 2020 House Retirements

Hurd narrowly won reelection last November, defeating Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones by less than 0.5%. Hillary Clinton won this border district by about 3.5% over Donald Trump in 2016. Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the district from toss-up to leans Democratic for 2020. 

The 23rd district is the largest one in terms of land area in Texas. It covers the southwestern part of the state from just east of El Paso to the San Antonio area.

Click or tap the map below for the current list of those supporting impeachment.

Despite a departing incumbent, the seat is still considered safe for the GOP in 2020.

INBOX: Martha Roby announces she will not seek sixth congressional term. pic.twitter.com/2TvBW9JYU9

— Alabama Politics (@AlabamaPolitics) July 26, 2019

Related: House Retirement Map

Quinnipiac finds Biden well out in front with 31% support.  Sens. Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are all bunched at 13-14%, with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg receiving 6% of the vote. Nobody else received more than 1%. If this poll were to be exactly right (it won't be¹), and if all the delegates were allocated based on the statewide vote (they aren't²), Biden would receive all of the states' 136 pledged delegates.  However, it is an interesting example of how Democratic proportional allocation can become winner-take-all when only one candidate reaches the 15% threshold.

General Election

Biden leads Trump by a 50-42% margin in the Quinnipiac poll.  Other tested match-ups (Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg and Sen. Cory Booker) were dead heats. Trump won the state by 8% in 2016.  Ohio has sided with the winner of each presidential election since 1960, when it chose Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy.

¹Ohio's primary is on March 17, two weeks after Super Tuesday.  Approximately 50% of the party's pledged delegates will be allocated prior to this date.  The race will be different by then, with a much smaller field remaining. 

²Of the state's 136 pledged delegates, 47 of them are based on the statewide vote, with the remaining 89 allocated based on the individual vote in each of the state's 16 congressional districts. The 15% threshold applies individually to each of these jurisdictions.

.@RealDonaldTrump, we must be better than comments like these. I share the political frustrations with some members of the other party, but these comments are beneath leaders. https://t.co/4b8e5hlSZI

— Rep. Paul Mitchell (@RepPaulMitchell) July 15, 2019

Mitchell represents the state's 10th district, a conservative, mostly rural area north of metro Detroit.  Donald Trump won here by 32% over Hillary Clinton in 2016, his largest margin of victory in a state that provided the closest statewide result in that election. Trump won Michigan by just 0.23%.

Mitchell is the 9th* current House member to announce they will not run for reelection in 2020. Select the map below for more information.  

* Utah's Rob Bishop is reconsidering his retirement announcement, first made back in 2017.  He says a final decision will come at the end of July.