Tennessee and South Carolina Redistricting Added to House Interactive Map
By 270toWin Staff
January 27, 2022, 6:55 PM ET
Congressional redistricting bills have cleared the Republican-controlled legislature in both South Carolina and Tennessee. South Carolina governor Henry McMaster (R) has already signed his state's bill into law. Gov. Bill Lee (R) will need to do the same in Tennessee, but there's no reason to think that won't happen. As such, shapes for both states have been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map.
Nashville - the vast majority of the existing 5th district - was split into parts of three districts. According to FiveThirtyEight, the partisan lean of the new 5th shifted 32 points toward Republicans, from D+15 to R+17, making it all but unwinnable for Democrats this cycle. Noting the handwriting on the wall, long-time Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper announced his retirement earlier this week.
Republicans currently hold a 7-2 edge in the delegation; this will likely move to 8-1 when the new House is seated next January.
Republicans hold a 6-1 edge in the state; that is unlikely to change. District 1, which leans Republican but was won by Democrats as recently as 2018, was made a bit safer for the GOP. This was done by shifting part of Charleston into the adjacent District 6th district held by Democrat James Clyburn.
Remaining States
15 states, with 148 total districts have yet to complete congressional districting. Two of the states, Florida and New York, combine for 54 (36%) of these districts.
| State (Districts) | Comments |
| Alabama (7) | Returns to the list after a Federal Court issued a preliminary injunction against the newly-enacted map. Further litigation will determine if the map will return or if a new one will be drawn. |
| Connecticut (5) | Redistricting commission was unable to pass a new map, punting the responsibility to the State Supreme Court. The Court appointed a special master, who recently submitted his proposed map. It represents only minor changes from the map currently in use. |
| Florida (28) | The state is gaining a district. The state Senate overwhelming approved its proposed map last week, essentially ignoring Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) who submitted his own map earlier this month. The Senate map left things fairly status quo from a partisan perspective, while DeSantis' map was much more aggressive in favor of his party. The House has yet to approve a map. While DeSantis doesn't have a direct say in how the lines are drawn, he can veto what eventually is passed by the legislature. |
| Hawaii (2) | A new map, whenever finalized, will likely only change to incorporate population shifts. In any case, both districts are expected to remain safely Democratic. |
| Kansas (4) | The Republican-controlled legislature has sent a redistricting bill to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. The plan splits Kansas City into two districts. The shift jeopardizes the state's lone Democratic member, Rep. Sharice Davids (KS-3). It is possible Kelly vetoes the measure. If she does, it is unclear if the legislature will be able to override. |
| Louisiana (6) | The Republican-controlled legislature will meet in special session beginning February 1. According to FiveThirtyEight, the state is the only one remaining without at least one proposed map. |
| Minnesota (8) | The legislature has until February 15 to pass a new map. They are more likely than not to miss that deadline, at which point a five-judge panel will take over the process. That panel has already held hearings and may be able to act fairly quickly if needed. |
| Missouri (8) | A map that largely maintains the status quo 6-2 Republican edge was passed by the state House. It now goes on to the full Senate, after being advanced by that body's redistricting committee. Some conservatives in the state Senate are pushing for a more aggressive map that would 'crack' Kansas City such that Democrat Emanuel Cleaver would have a difficult time getting reelected. |
| New Hampshire (2) | The Republican-controlled state House approved a map that would make District 1 more favorable for the party. The Senate has not yet taken action; GOP Gov. Chris Sununu has asked that chamber to modify the House map to make both districts more competitive. |
| New York (26) | The state is losing a district. Unable to reach agreement, the bipartisan redistricting commission submitted two maps along party lines. These were rejected by the state legislature. After additional effort, the committee failed to draw new maps, essentially handing the process over to the Legislature. (This was not a surprising outcome). Controlling the entire process, a very aggressive map favoring Democrats is possible. The New York Times reports that "as many as half a dozen seats [hang] in the balance". |
| Ohio (15) | The state is losing a district. Ohio returns to the incomplete list after the State Supreme Court invalidated the enacted plan, calling it an unconstitutional Republican gerrymander. The legislature was given a month to draw a new map not dictated by partisan considerations. |
| Pennsylvania (17) | The state is losing a district. The Republican-controlled legislature is at odds with Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. As reported by Spotlight PA, "If Wolf and the legislature do not agree on a final plan by Jan. 30, Commonwealth Court said it will take over the process as part of an ongoing lawsuit and select a map from those submitted by parties involved in the case." |
| Rhode Island (2) | Commission has approved a map with little change from the current one. It is not binding on the Democratic-controlled legislature. It will be interesting to see if there is an attempt to shore up District 2, which has a small chance of becoming competitive given the retirement of long-time Rep. Jim Langevin. |
| Washington (10) | Legislature has a couple more weeks to alter commission-approved map. By law, any changes can't affect more than 2% of the population of each district, and must be approved by a 2/3 majority in each chamber. |
| Wisconsin (8) | In November, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers vetoed the map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature, passing the process to the State Supreme Court. The Court held a daylong hearing earlier this month to consider various proposals. |
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