2022 House Forecast: Consensus Forecast

As of November 7, 2022

A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of these seven forecasters. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. You can also view these ratings as a table.

The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable.

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast.

November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up.

Current

no 2022 election
no 2022 election

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up

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House Elections 2022

Current 219 213 3*
Consensus Forecast 199 227 9
Interactive Map Above

* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Consensus Map House(a) President(b)
AK-AL Mary Peltola
2022 1st
9.1% 10.1%
Mary Peltola*
Nick Begich
Sarah Palin
AZ-1 David Schweikert
2011 6th
N/A 1.5%
Jevin Hodge
David Schweikert*
AZ-2 Tom O'Halleran
2017 3rd
N/A 8.4%
Tom O'Halleran*
Eli Crane
AZ-6 Ann Kirkpatrick
2019 2nd
N/A 0.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Kirsten Engel
Juan Ciscomani
CA-9 Josh Harder
2019 2nd
N/A 12.7%
Josh Harder*
Tom Patti
CA-13 OPEN
N/A 11.4%
Adam Gray
John Duarte
CA-22 David Valadao
2021 1st
N/A 13.1%
Rudy Salas
David Valadao*
CA-27 Mike Garcia
2020 2nd
N/A 12.7%
Christy Smith
Mike Garcia*
CA-45 Michelle Steel
2021 1st
N/A 6.3%
Jay Chen
Michelle Steel*
CA-47 Katie Porter
2019 2nd
N/A 11.9%
Katie Porter*
Scott Baugh
CA-49 Mike Levin
2019 2nd
N/A 11.3%
Mike Levin*
Brian Maryott
CO-8 OPEN
N/A 4.7%
Yadira Caraveo
Barbara Kirkmeyer
CT-5 Jahana Hayes
2019 2nd
N/A 10.9%
Jahana Hayes*
George Logan
FL-7 Stephanie Murphy
2017 3rd
N/A 5.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Karen Green
Cory Mills
IA-2 Ashley Hinson
2021 1st
N/A 4.5%
Liz Mathis
Ashley Hinson*
IA-3 Cindy Axne
2019 2nd
N/A 0.4%
Cindy Axne*
Zach Nunn
IL-6 Sean Casten
2019 2nd
N/A 11.1%
Defeated Rep. Marie Newman (current IL-3) in primary
Sean Casten*
Keith Pekau
IL-13 OPEN
N/A 11.3%
Nikki Budzinski
Regan Deering
IL-17 Cheri Bustos
2013 5th
N/A 7.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Eric Sorensen
Esther King
IN-1 Frank Mrvan
2021 1st
N/A 8.5%
Frank Mrvan*
Jennifer-Ruth Green
KS-3 Sharice Davids
2019 2nd
N/A 4.5%
Sharice Davids*
Amanda Adkins
ME-2 Jared Golden
2019 2nd
N/A 6.1%
Jared Golden*
Bruce Poliquin
MI-3 Peter Meijer
2021 1st
N/A 8.6%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2022 election.
Hillary Scholten
John Gibbs
MI-7 Elissa Slotkin
2019 2nd
N/A 0.9%
Elissa Slotkin*
Tom Barrett
MI-8 Dan Kildee
2013 5th
N/A 2.1%
Dan Kildee*
Paul Junge
MI-10 OPEN
N/A 0.7%
Carl Marlinga
John James
MN-2 Angie Craig
2019 2nd
N/A 7.4%
Angie Craig*
Tyler Kistner
NC-13 OPEN
N/A 1.8%
Wiley Nickel
Bo Hines
NE-2 Don Bacon
2017 3rd
N/A 6.4%
Tony Vargas
Don Bacon*
NH-1 Chris Pappas
2019 2nd
N/A 5.7%
Chris Pappas*
Karoline Leavitt
NJ-7 Tom Malinowski
2019 2nd
N/A 4.5%
Tom Malinowski*
Tom Kean Jr
NM-2 Yvette Herrell
2021 1st
N/A 5.7%
Gabriel Vasquez
Yvette Herrell*
NV-1 Dina Titus
2013 5th
N/A 8.7%
Dina Titus*
Mark Robertson
NV-3 Susie Lee
2019 2nd
N/A 6.7%
Susie Lee*
April Becker
NV-4 Steven Horsford
2019 2nd
N/A 8.3%
Steven Horsford*
Sam Peters
NY-1 Lee Zeldin
2015 4th
N/A 0.0%
Retiring to run for Governor
Bridget Fleming
Nicholas LaLota
NY-3 Thomas Suozzi
2017 3rd
N/A 8.5%
Retiring to run for Governor
Robert Zimmerman
George Santos
NY-4 Kathleen Rice
2015 4th
N/A 14.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Laura Gillen
Anthony D'Esposito
NY-17 Sean P. Maloney
2013 5th
N/A 10.1%
Sean Patrick Maloney*
Michael Lawler
NY-18 Pat Ryan
2022 1st
N/A 8.5%
Pat Ryan*
Colin Schmitt
NY-19 OPEN
N/A 4.7%
Josh Riley
Marc Molinaro
NY-22 John Katko
2015 4th
N/A 7.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Francis Conole
Brandon Williams
OH-1 Steve Chabot
2011 6th
N/A 8.6%
Greg Landsman
Steve Chabot*
OH-9 Marcy Kaptur
1983 20th
N/A 2.8%
Marcy Kaptur*
JR Majewski
OH-13 Anthony Gonzalez
2019 2nd
N/A 2.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Emilia Sykes
Madison Gesiotto
OR-4 Peter DeFazio
1987 18th
N/A 12.7%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Val Hoyle
Alek Skarlatos
OR-5 Kurt Schrader
2009 7th
N/A 8.8%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2022 election.
Jamie McLeod-Skinner
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
OR-6 OPEN
N/A 13.2%
Andrea Salinas
Mike Erickson
PA-7 Susan Wild
2018 3rd
N/A 0.6%
Susan Wild*
Lisa Scheller
PA-8 Matt Cartwright
2013 5th
N/A 2.9%
Matt Cartwright*
Jim Bognet
PA-17 Conor Lamb
2018 3rd
N/A 6.0%
Retiring to run for U.S. Senate
Chris Deluzio
Jeremy Shaffer
RI-2 James Langevin
2001 11th
N/A 12.7%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Seth Magaziner
Allan Fung
TN-5 Jim Cooper
2003 10th
N/A 11.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Heidi Campbell
Andy Ogles
TX-15 OPEN
N/A 2.9%
Michelle Vallejo
Monica De La Cruz
TX-28 Henry Cuellar
2005 9th
N/A 7.2%
Henry Cuellar*
Cassy Garcia
TX-34 Mayra Flores | Vicente Gonzalez
N/A 15.7%
Incumbents of both parties redistricted together
Vicente Gonzalez*
Mayra Flores*
VA-2 Elaine Luria
2019 2nd
N/A 3.1%
Elaine Luria*
Jen Kiggans
VA-7 Abigail Spanberger
2019 2nd
N/A 6.3%
Abigail Spanberger*
Yesli Vega
WA-8 Kim Schrier
2019 2nd
N/A 6.9%
Kim Schrier*
Matt Larkin
WI-3 Ron Kind
1997 13th
N/A 4.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Brad Pfaff
Derrick Van Orden

(a)Source: Cook Political Report, 270toWin research. N/A for new district boundaries. In most cases, the margin is the difference between the Democratic and Republican nominee in the November 3, 2020 general election.
* Uncontested | + No major party opposition | ^ Both nominees from same party | x All-party primary
More details on the above exception types >>

President Margin is the percentage difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in 2020:
(b) Source: Daily Kos (when available) or Politico; based on 2022 House district boundaries
(c) Source: Daily Kos; based on House district boundaries used in 2020