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Election News

Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas to Retire; 30th House Member Not Running in 2018

October 31, 2017

Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas announced Tuesday that he will not seek reeelection in 2018. The Dallas-area Republican, now in his 8th term, is chair of the powerful House Financial Services Committee. He will serve out the remainder of his term.

In this deep red district, Hensarling easily won reelection last November with nearly 81% of the vote. The Democratic Party did not field a candidate; Libertarian Ken Ashby took the other 19%. Donald Trump won here by about 29 points. 

Hensarling is the 20th Republican, and 30th member overall, planning to retire or run for another office in 2018. 

Jeff Flake, Senator from Arizona, Will Not Seek Reelection

October 24, 2017

Republican Jeff Flake of Arizona announced Tuesday that he will not seek reeelection to a 2nd term in 2018. Flake made his announcement on the Senate floor, in a speech that bemoaned the direction politics is taking in the United States. 

Flake, who has had a difficult relationship with President Trump, made waves in his party earlier in the summer with his book "Conscience of a Conservative". Two polls from late summer had him trailing the much more conservative Kelli Ward by over 25% in the Republican primary. Ward is very much in the Trump/Bannon wing of the party. As Flake told The Arizona Republic "here's the bottom line: The path that I would have to travel to get the Republican nomination is a path I'm not willing to take, and that I can't in good conscience take." 

The various pundits we track all had the 2018 Arizona Senate race as a toss-up, and they all reconfirmed that rating today. Interestingly, Flake's announcement might actually improve the Republican chances of holding this seat, as there are many who doubt Ward can win statewide should she take the Republican nomination. Flake's exit opens the door for other Republicans to run in 2018. 

Whomever the Republicans choose, their likely Democratic opponent will be Rep. Kyrsten Sinema who announced her candidacy in late September. 

Pennsylvania 18th District Special Election Scheduled

October 24, 2017

Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf has set March 13, 2018, as the date for a special election to fill the vacant 18th Congressional District seat. That seat was previously held by Republican Tim Murphy, who resigned earlier this month after text messages surfaced of him urging a woman with whom he was having an affair to seek an abortion

There are now two vacancies in the U.S. House. The other is in UT-03, vacated earlier this year by Republican Jason Chaffetz. That seat will be filled in a special election on November 7th. The current U.S. House has 239 Republicans and 194 Democrats, along with the two vacancies.

At this point, those two seats are expected to remain in Republican hands. That said, Pennsylvania Democratic governor Wolf's scheduling of the vote on a different date than the state's general 2018 primary (May 15) could benefit his party as turnout is often much lower in one-off special elections.

 

Nearly 30 House members have announced they will not seek reelection to that body in 2018. Visit our retirements page for the latest information.

 

Ohio Republican Pat Tiberi to Resign from Congress

October 19, 2017

Updating an earlier story, nine term Republican Pat Tiberi of Ohio announced he would not seek reelection in 2018 and would resign Congress no later than January 31, 2018. 

Tiberi represents Ohio's 12th Congressional District, which includes areas to the north and east of Columbus. The interestingly shaped district is drawn favorably for Republicans and Tiberi easily won a 9th term last November by nearly 40 points. That said, Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the seat from 'safe' to 'likely' Republican. This is due to the overall political environment coupled with the uncertainties (e.g., low turnout) often associated with special elections. 

 

Governor John Kasich will set the date for a special election to fill the seat for the remainder of Tiberi's term. The seat, as with all 435 House Districts, will be contested again in the midterms on November 6, 2018.

Senior House Republican May Resign from Congress

October 19, 2017

The New York Times reports that nine-term Republican Pat Tiberi (OH-12) may resign from Congress to take a position with a business consortium in Ohio. Tiberi is an influential member of the House Ways and Means Committee and was a close ally of former House speaker John Boehner.

An announcement is possible as soon as this week. 

As of this morning, 28 House members have announced they are not seeking reelection to that body in 2018. 

Fox News Finds Alabama Senate Race Tied

October 17, 2017

A new poll from Fox News finds the Alabama Senate race a dead heat. Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones are both at 42%, with 11% unsure. The special election is about seven weeks out, on December 12th. The poll surveyed 801 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.5%. The full topline for the poll can be found here.

This is the first poll to show the race this competitive; the last two polls have had Moore up 8% in a state that Donald Trump won by about 28%. Whether the poll marks a shift in voter sentiment or is an outlier remains to be seen.

Maine Senator Susan Collins to Remain in Senate

October 13, 2017

Maine Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that she will forego a run for governor of her state in 2018, and (presumably) run for reelection in 2020. The four-term moderate Republican had been considering this decision for many months.  Current governor Paul LePage cannot run again due to term limits.

If Collins had run, she could have remained in the Senate during the campaign. However, winning the race would have required her to step down. A replacement would have been named by LePage.

Without Collins, the 2018 gubernatorial race in Maine is currently seen as a toss-up.There are a total of 36 governorships to be contested next year, in addition to those in New Jersey and Virginia next month.

Moore Still Leads by 8 in Alabama Senate Race

October 12, 2017

Republican Roy Moore continues to hold an 8 point lead over Democrat Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate special election race, according to a new poll by Cygnal, an Alabama-based firm. Moore leads 49% to 41%. The 8 point margin matches that of a poll released earlier this month.

The election is in two months, on Tuesday December 12th.

Rep. Shea-Porter to Retire; One of Only 12 Dems. Holding Districts Won by Trump in '16

October 9, 2017

Carol Shea-Porter, a Democrat representing New Hampshire's very competitive first congressional district, announced she will not seek reelection in 2018. The move was unexpected. According to the Boston Globe:

"Her decision is a political bombshell with national implications. At a time when Democrats are looking to win back a majority in the House, Shea-Porter is one of [only 12] Democrats holding office in a district that Republican Donald Trump won last year."

This is one one of the most competitive House districts in New England, which can be seen by looking at the results here since 2006, when Shea-Porter first ran:

While Shea-Porter is now serving her 4th term in the House, the seat has rotated between parties since 2010. Shea-Porter has faced Republican Frank Guinta in all four of those elections. Guinta earlier announced he will not run again in 2018.

2016 was the closest of those four races. Shea-Porter defeated Guinta by one point, while Donald Trump won the District over Hillary Clinton by roughly the same amount.

There are now 28 House members retiring or seeking another office in 2018. This excludes Republican Tim Murphy (PA-18) who will now resign from Congress effective October 21st.

Tennessee Rep. Blackburn Announces Bid for Senate; Gov. Bill Haslam Declines to Run

October 5, 2017

Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn announced her bid for U.S. Senate, becoming the front-runner to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker in Tennessee. The move came just after termed-out incumbent Gov. Bill Haslam passed on a run for the office.  

Blackburn is in her 8th term. She represents a safe Republican district in west-central Tennessee, winning reelection by nearly 49 points this past November. She (or whomever emerges as the Republican nominee) will start out as a large favorite in the 2018 Senate race. The Volunteer State last elected a Democratic Senator in 1990 (former VP Al Gore).

Blackburn becomes the 28th House member to pass on reelection in 2018. Included in that are now three of Tennessee's nine Representatives.