Election News

Tuesday should bring a resolution to the highly competitive Democratic primary for Senate in Kentucky. Results from the state's two largest counties, Jefferson (Louisville) and Fayette (Lexington) will be released, along with any remaining absentee ballots, which had to be postmarked by June 23 (primary day) and received no later than June 27 to be counted. Complete election results are expected shortly after 6:00 PM ET.

Amy McGrath, a former fighter pilot, had long been the frontrunner in this race. However, Charles Booker, a state representative made a late run, staking out more progressive policy positions. The debate over racial injustice has also shaken up this primary: Breonna Taylor was killed by police in Louisville earlier this year. Booker, 35, is the youngest black lawmaker in the Kentucky House.

The pandemic caused the primary to be rescheduled from May 19, and turned it into a largely mail-in contest.  While the delay helped Booker in that his campaign only caught fire in the closing weeks, the mail-in component likely helped McGrath as many cast their ballots earlier in the process.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

Rep. Eliot Engel has lost his primary to progressive political newcomer Jamaal Bowman.  As of about 1:30 PM Wednesday afternoon, Bowman held a 62% to 35% advantage over the 16-term incumbent. 

Our election results partner, Decision Desk HQ, noted that Bowman took an unexpectedly large lead in the early and Election Day voting and is ahead in the portion of both counties (Bronx and Westchester) that make up the district. While absentee ballots remain to be counted, the margin Engel would need is such that the call for Bowman can be made.

Republican State Sen. Chris Jacobs won the special election in New York's 27th congressional district Tuesday. The seat has been vacant since last October, when former Rep. Chris Collins resigned, pleading guilty to insider trading charges that same day.

Under indictment at the time of the 2018 midterms, Collins won reelection by less than 0.5% over Democrat Nate McMurray, who was again the party's nominee Tuesday. The special election outcome, with Jacobs up by nearly 40% at the time of this writing, more closely reflects the conservative lean of the district. Donald Trump won here by 25% in 2016.

New York and Kentucky hold their rescheduled presidential primaries Tuesday. We'll be watching to see if Joe Biden can cross another delegate threshold.  Those two states, as well as Virginia also hold their congressional primaries. There's also a special election in New York for a vacant congressional seat.  Finally, there are two runoff U.S. House primaries, one each in Mississippi and North Carolina.

The large vote-by-mail nature of these elections will cause delays in the ability to call some competitive races. This will be particularly true in Kentucky and New York, where we may need to wait a week or more to find out the winners of some important primaries.

Polls Close (Eastern Time)

_{Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.} 

Democratic Delegate Count

New York has 274 pledged delegates available Tuesday. That's more than any state except California. Kentucky adds 54 more for a total of 328.  Joe Biden starts the day at 2,144. If he reaches 2,376,^{1 1}This number may change slightly depending on the final count of superdelegate votes. which seems likely, he will have amassed pledged delegates totaling more than 50% of ALL Democratic delegates (pledged + superdelegates) available this year. As a result, superdelegates will be allowed to participate in the roll call vote at the convention.

Results by State

Kentucky

President: There are 54 pledged delegates available in the Democratic presidential primary.

Senate: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is seeking a 7th term this year.  A member since January, 1985, he currently has the 3rd longest tenure in the U.S. Senate.^{2 2}Democrat Patrick Leahy of Vermont (1975) has the most seniority, followed by Republican Chuck Grassley of Iowa (1981). McConnell has nominal primary opposition.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

These maps will track the state of the race based purely on available polling. Where there are no polls, the consensus rating is used.  The maps are automatically updated three times each day.

The final daily update is added to the timeline, which appears above the map. This will let you see how the map evolves over time.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

Freshman GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman was defeated in his bid for renomination at a district party convention Saturday.  He lost to former county supervisor Bob Good, who challenged Riggleman from the right.  

While most nominees are chosen in a traditional primary process, Virginia allows district party committees the option to instead choose their nominees at a party convention. The state's regular primaries are scheduled for June 23.

The 5th district is the state's largest by land area, stretching from the exurbs of Washington D.C. southward through the central part of the state to the North Carolina border. Riggleman was elected by 6.5% in 2018 after his predecessor Tom Garrett (R) did not seek reelection. Donald Trump won the district by 11 points in 2016. 

Carolyn Bourdeaux has won the Democratic primary for Georgia's 7th congressional district, avoiding an August runoff.  As ballots from the largely mail-in primary continue to be counted, she has crossed the 50% threshold, with that number expected to continue to grow as the remaining ballots are counted.

The race was called late Saturday afternoon by our results provider Decision Desk HQ.