Election News

The map above shows how the states currently in the compact voted in the 2016 presidential election. As it turns out, it also shows how these states voted in the 2008 and 2012 elections. In fact, aside from Colorado and New Mexico, these states have all voted Democratic since at least 1992.  

There's been little interest in this proposal from traditionally red states. Many of them are smaller and thus over-represented in the Electoral College. Additionally, two of the past five elections (2000 and 2016) have seen the electoral and popular votes diverge. Republicans were the beneficiary in both cases.

^ Any actual implementation would likely be delayed by legal challenges over the constitutionality of the approach.

* In Nevada's case, that is pretty rare. Aside from 2016, when it voted for Clinton, and 1976, the state has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1912.

Per an Axios analysis, 18 candidates have currently qualified for the first set of debates. These will each be held over two nights, with the first scheduled for June 26 and 27 in Miami. Originally, the split was to be random, but a recent rules change will ensure that those with higher standing in the polls will also be more evenly distributed.

The full list of Democratic candidates is in the table below, along with their current national polling average and debate qualification status. 

The first fall debate is scheduled for September 12, with another one in October. These will only take place across two nights if enough candidates qualify under the new rules. 

Interactive Delegate Calculator

For those interested, we'll be introducing a Democratic delegate calculator later this summer. More details to follow.

The mostly rural 12th district is located in the central part of the state from northwest of Harrisburg to the New York line. In terms of land area, it is the largest of Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts. The district is very conservative - Donald Trump won here by over 36% in 2016, with Marino approaching that margin in his 2018 reelection. As such, Keller is heavily favored to win.  Keep an eye on the margin, if it is significantly lower than 30% it may be an early warning sign for 2020, particularly after Trump held a rally in the district Monday 

The timing of the election will work against turnout in a couple ways. Pennsylvania is a closed primary state, meaning only registered party members can vote in the respective primaries. Independents can vote in the special election; but it is an open question whether they will come out for this race. Additionally, the election is taking place after most students have departed Penn State for the summer.  State College is among the few Democratic-leaning areas in the district.

De Blasio is the third sitting mayor to join the race. Also running are South Bend Indiana's Pete Buttigieg and Wayne Messam, of Miramar, Florida. No sitting mayor has ever been elected president.

Polling

Three late April polls showed State Sen. Dan Bishop as the frontrunner, with 30-36% of the vote. Bishop is most well-known for sponsoring the state's "bathroom bill", which gained wide notoriety before being partially repealed in 2017. County Commissioner Stony Rushing was seeing between 17-19% support and, if the polling proves reasonably accurate, is likely to finish 2nd. Two others, County Commissioner Matthew Ridenhour and Realtor Leigh Brown also seem to be viable.  

30% needed to avoid a possible runoff

If no candidate reaches 30% of the vote, the 2nd place candidate can request a runoff. However, it is not required.  Rushing has said he will not pursue a runoff if he finishes 2nd to Bishop, although he would have nine days to change his mind. If a runoff is required in September, the general election will take place on November 5.

How did we get here?

The GOP incumbent, Robert Pittenger, lost the 2018 primary to Mark Harris, a pastor. Harris went on to what appeared to be a narrow win over Marine veteran Dan McCready in the November midterms. However, that result was never certified due to allegations of fraud. In late February, after a multi-day hearing, the State Board of Elections ordered a new election to be held.  Harris chose not to pursue a rematch with McCready, who faced no opposition from within his party.

Special Election Outlook

Although Donald Trump won this district by about 11.5% in 2016, the 2018 race between Harris and McCready was expected to be highly competitive and turned out that way. Harris received about 900 more votes than McCready on Election Day.  As of now, most pundits see the special election to be a toss-up. However, those ratings could change once the GOP nominee and the date of the special election (September vs. November) are known. If Bishop is the Republican nominee, the race will likely take on a larger national profile.

Bullock is likely to be one of the final notable entrants in a Democratic field that now numbers 23. That list is below, ordered by the current national polling average.  18 of these candidates have qualified for the first two debates in June and July. The field is capped at 20 (candidates will be split randomly across two nights). If more than 20 become eligible, a tiebreaker process will be used.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was 2nd at 15%, with California Sen. Kamala Harris 3rd at 10%. Both those numbers were little changed from a month ago. Biden's large gain appears to have come at the expense of Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams, who each lost 5% or more of their support.

For those interested, we have a new page that displays who is polling in the top 3 for those places where polling is available. It includes a link to the polling detail for each state.  Keep in mind that polling is pretty limited at this point; several of these states only have one survey thus far.

Possible replacements could include former Gov. Matt Mead or Rep. Liz Cheney. In July 2013, Cheney announced she would challenge Enzi for the Republican nomination. After failing to gain significant party support, she withdrew in early 2014. Enzi would easily defeat four other challengers on the way to winning a fourth and final term in November that year. Cheney went on to win the state's at-large seat in the U.S. House in November, 2016. 

Enzi becomes the fourth Senator to announce a 2020 retirement. His Republican colleagues Lamar Alexander (TN) and Pat Roberts (KS), as well as Democrat Tom Udall (NM) will be leaving. All these seats are seen as safe for the incumbent party.