Election News

At the state level, recent polling also points to a tight race. The map below highlights all states* with a current polling spread of five points or less. 11 states, representing 156 electoral votes. Keep in mind that only four states were decided by five points or less in 2012. 

The forecast models from FiveThirtyEight, from which we've derived electoral maps (updated hourly), have also tightened considerably in recent days. 

The presidential election is in 43 days. Some early voting is already underway.

* For this map, we've excluded Texas and Mississippi due to limited polling, all of which was prior to the recent Trump surge. We do continue to show those as toss-up, along with additional categorizations (leaning, likely) in the electoral map based on polls.

See the article Electoral Maps Derived From FiveThirtyEight Forecasts for the most current maps, along with links to interactive versions.

Against other recent polls, today's polls were better for Clinton in Wisconsin and Virginia, while Trump can be pleased with survey results in Iowa and Georgia.

The full list of recent presidential polls can be found here, with the full set of polling averages also available. Clinton leads by 237-120 in the electoral map based on polls.

The full list of recent presidential polls can be found here, with the full set of polling averages also available.

In this recent batch of polls, Trump is doing better than might be expected in several blue states, including Wisconsin (Clinton +2), Maine (Clinton +5, but Trump +5 in 2nd District) and Minnesota (Clinton +6). Clinton is performing better in Florida (Clinton +5) and New Hampshire (Clinton +9) than in other recent polling.

There are 97 possible ties based on the states that currently look most likely to be competitive in November. Use our updated Electoral College Tie Finder to see what happens as you assign those states to Clinton or Trump.

If no candidate receives 270 electoral votes, the House of Representatives will pick the president. Each state delegation gets one vote, regardless of the number of congressional districts it has. 26 votes, representing a majority of the states, are required to win.

This in mind, it is useful to look at what party will control each state's congressional delegation in January, 2017. This is how it looks right now.

Republicans are very likely to control the majority of delegations in the new Congress. We discuss the above in more detail in this article about Electoral College Ties.  

Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly placed Montana in the 'Democratic or tied' category. Montana has only one congressional district, so a tie is not possible. The seat there is currently rated 'Likely Republican'; thus the state is also moved to 'Likely Republican' on the map.

Most pollsters use a likely voter screen in the weeks leading up to the election, and that's what we use in our tables, when both are available. However, defining likely voters is a challenge for pollsters, as this 2012 article discusses. 

Perhaps this kind of difference reflects more passion for one candidate. At the same time, it could highlight an opportunity if one candidate's 'get out the vote' effort can significantly outperform on Election Day. 

CNN/ORC Ohio poll

In Florida, Trump leads by 4 points head-head, 3 points when third parties are included. This brings the Florida polling average to almost dead even; Trump has a lead of less than 1%.

In Ohio, Trump also leads by 4 points head-head, with a 5 point lead when third parties are included. These results are very similar to a Bloomberg Politics poll out earlier today. All recent polling now gives Trump a 1-2 point lead in the state.

Barack Obama won both Florida and Ohio in 2008 and again in 2012. In the latter election, these were two of only four states decided by 5 points or less. No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio.

CNN also surveyed the Senate races in both states, finding the incumbent Republicans with double-digit leads over their challengers. Marco Rubio leads by 11 over Patrick Murphy in Florida. In Ohio, Rob Portman has a 21 point lead on Ted Strickland.

Johnson is currently averaging 9% in national polls, although he is well into double digits in several states. To qualify for the debates, Johnson would need to average 15%. The campaign is taking out a full-page ad in the New York Times to encourage the debate commission to allow him to participate.

No 3rd party candidate has earned electoral votes since 1968, when George Wallace won five states in the deep South. Will this year be different? You can game it out with our three-way map that includes Gary Johnson.

Maine is one of only two states to partially allocate its electoral votes based on the popular vote results in each congressional district. While this approach, established in advance of the 1972 election, has never resulted in an electoral vote split, that may change in 2016. Polling of the state has been limited, but the averages point toward Clinton winning the state, with Trump winning the 2nd district. In that case, Trump would earn one of the state's four electoral votes. This is now reflected in the electoral map based on polls. UPDATE: A late August poll surfaced a few hours after this article was written that had Clinton leading in ME-02. Trump still leads by several points in that district, but with the average difference within 5 points, it is reclassified as a toss-up.

Maine last voted Republican in 1988. Barack Obama won the state by over 15 points in both 2008 and 2012.