Election News

While officially unbound, there is nothing to prevent candidates from indicating who they would support. To that end, the newspaper reached out to all 162 candidates to ask them. They received 110 responses, which are summarized in the graphic below. Click it for specific details.

The results indicate Democracy may still be at work, even with this convoluted process, as 61 of the 110 respondents said they would vote for the candidate that wins their district or the state. While that leaves some wiggle room, many Republican delegates nationwide are bound based on similar results. Of course, there may also be some positioning here as these people try to get elected. For example, if one was running in a District with demographics favorable to Trump, he or she might be better served to get out in front with a specific answer, instead of a more generic one.

Polling over the past couple weeks has trended in the direction of Ted Cruz. The Texas Senator has led 8 of the ten polls since March 20 and now averages a 3.1% lead over Donald Trump. The average is closer than most recent polls would indicate, as a survey out today showed Trump with a ten point lead. While there is certainly some possibility Trump wins the state, that poll seems like an outlier.

Heading into Wisconsin, Donald Trump leads the Republican field with 736 delegates. He needs about 53% of the remaining delegates available to win the Republican nomination.

Democrat: 86 of the state's 96 delegates will be up for grabs tomorrow; the remainder are superdelegates. As with other Democratic contests, delegates are awarded proportionately, some based on the statewide popular vote, the remainder based on the results in each individual district. 

Bernie Sanders is on a bit of a run, having won five of the last six Democratic contests. However, those were all caucuses in states with favorable demographics for him. Sanders hasn't won a primary since March 8, when he won neighboring Michigan. Looking at the polls, this primary could go either way. Sanders is averaging about 2.5% ahead of Clinton; each candidate has led in multiple polls over the past week.

Hillary Clinton has a lead of 260 delegates over Sanders in primary/caucus events, that lead grows to 700 when superdelegates are factored in. Factoring in superdelegates, Clinton needs about 33% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination.

The article also discusses a possible Clinton-Cruz match-up. While this would likely be somewhat closer, Clinton would seem to be favored here as well. In either case, the polarized nature of the country makes a Democratic landslide, like in the 1964 Johnson-Goldwater election, unlikely.

An interactive version of the forecast map follows. Use it to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast. 

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

While small in number, any loss of delegates by frontrunner Donald Trump increases the likelihood that he will not receive the necessary 1,237 before the July Convention in Cleveland. Trump needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.

This is another reason why campaigns are usually suspended and not formally ended.

Interestingly, Trump's support is unchanged, at 30%, since the last Marquette survey in late February. Both Cruz and John Kasich saw significant gains, picking up voters that previously supported a now-withdrawn candidate or who have made up their mind in the final few weeks before the April 5 primary.

On the Republican side, Wisconsin has 42 delegates, 18 are winner take all for the statewide winner, while the other 24 are winner take all based on the vote within each of the state's 8 congressional districts (3 per district).

For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points. The last Marquette survey showed Sanders leading by one point.

The Marquette poll is seen by many as the 'gold standard' in Wisconsin, so it will be interesting to see where it ends up.

Wisconsin has 42 delegates, 18 are winner take all for the statewide winner, while the other 24 are winner take all based on the vote within each of the state's 8 congressional districts (3 per district).

There has been less polling for the Democratic primary. The last Marquette survey showed the race a dead heat. 

The poll often includes general election match-ups as well.

Another 67 delegates remain to be allocated in Washington. An estimate by The Greenpapers (as of Sunday AM) gives Sanders a 74-27 total for the state, meaning he would win about 49 of the remaining 67 delegates there.

Despite the good night for Sanders, Clinton now needs less than 1/3 of the remaining delegates to reach 2,383 and secure the Democratic nomination. For Sanders to have a real shot, he'll need to build on Saturday's performance in Wisconsin on April 5 and then, more importantly, in the Northeast later in April. Wisconsin is certainly doable; but Sanders trails badly in delegate-rich New York (April 19) and in many of the April 26 states. The Sanders campaign is planning a strong push in New York.

Heading into today, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 1,223 to 920 in delegates won at events; the totals are 1,691 to 949 when superdelegates that have committed to one candidate or the other are included. 2,383 delegates are needed to win the Democratic nomination.

As a reminder, all Democratic contests allocate delegates on a proportional basis, with some of those delegates allocated on an at-large basis, the remainder based on results in each individual congressional district. There is a 15% minimum to qualify for any delegates. 

Washington: By far the largest prize on Saturday, with 101 delegates up for grabs. The Seattle Times reports that caucuses run from 10AM to about noon, Pacific Time (1-3PM ET). That may mean we'll have some results during the afternoon.

Hawaii: The state, one of the most liberal in the nation, will award 25 delegates today. This WSJ article points out that the state's large Asian popoulation could provide some early insight into how California will vote in June. (Not sure about that given that California is a primary and 2 1/2 months away, but an interesting premise). The caucus (actually they are calling it a 'Presidential Preference Poll') begins at 1PM local time (7PM ET).

Alaska: The smallest of the day's events, the state will award 16 delegates. Alaska only has one congressional district. Caucuses begin at 10AM local time (2PM ET).

After today, the next event on the Democratic calendar is the April 5 Wisconsin primary.

On the Republican side, John Kasich swept all 6 polls when pitted against Hillary Clinton, winning by an average of 6.5 points. On the other end of the spectrum, both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton average a double-digit lead over Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. The closest match-up for Democratic frontrunner Clinton appears to be with Ted Cruz. 

While these numbers are interesting, they ultimately don't tell us much. Trailing for their party's nominations, Kasich and Sanders have been subject to fewer attacks and are still not as well-known across party lines as Clinton and Trump, who both consistently have high unfavorable ratings in polls. In addition, the only polls that ultimately matter are those at the state level. 

Emerson also took a look at a few match-ups for November, finding that either Democrat would beat Donald Trump by 9 points. Clinton and Cruz were separated by just one point.