Election News

She has reached 2,383 delegates, the exact number needed to win, as an additional block of superdelegates has apparently committed to vote for her at the Democratic convention in July. 

Clinton was expected to easily cross the threshold tomorrow, when six states hold contests. However, the AP apparently surveyed uncommitted superdelegates and found enough to get her to 2,383. We noted this as a possibility yesterday, as the AP did something similar on the Republican side, making Donald Trump the presumptive nominee on May 26th; earlier than the expected date of June 7th. 

@Nate_Cohn If PR gets her close, thinking AP might survey uncommitted superdelegates before Tues. to see if that gets her to 2,383

— 270toWin (@270toWin) June 5, 2016

For their part, the Bernie Sanders campaign disagrees with the AP's assessment, putting out this statement:

Nearly 700 pledged delegates are available in the six contests Tuesday, which includes five primaries and the North Dakota caucus. The first polls close in New Jersey at 8PM ET. Clinton leads the polls by 21 points over Bernie Sanders there, and she will likely cross the delegate threshold before voting ends in any of the other states. 

The big prize is California, with 475 pledged delegates. The polls close there at 11PM ET. Sanders has drawn nearly even in recent polling. A Sanders win there would make for an odd evening for Democrats, bookended on one end by Clinton being declared the presumptive nominee, only to have her lose the largest Democratic state a few hours later. 

Limited polling in New Mexico points to a Clinton victory. No polling is available in the other states. However, Sanders has won every other state in that part of the country so he should do well.

The table below allocates delegates assuming the polling averages are exactly right. It also assumes the statewide vote is the same in each congressional district. That won't be the case, but with proportional allocation and only two candidates, it is a pretty good proxy.

Even assuming Sanders takes most of the Dakotas and Montana delegates, Clinton will likely end up in the neighborhood of 2,700 delegates, 300+ clear of the needed number and a lead of well over 800 on Sanders. Clinton will still be about 200 short based on pledged delegates, but with a 300-325 delegate margin expected in that category, there's little reason to believe superdelegates will switch en masse barring a major 'black swan' event between now and the Democratic convention in late July.

The one remaining Democratic primary is June 14 in District of Columbia.

For now, we are showing the totals excluding that final delegate:

Today is the Puerto Rico primary, with 60 pledged delegates available. Polls are open from 8AM to 3PM Eastern Time.

Caucus hours in the Virgin Islands are 10AM to 6PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST) Saturday. Polls are open 8AM to 3PM AST in Puerto Rico on Sunday. Neither country is on Daylight Savings Time so these times are the same as Eastern Time.

Clinton enters the weekend just 70 delegates short of clinching the nomination. It's mathematically possible, although highly unlikely, that she could reach 2,383 this weekend.

The full June calendar is on the map below. Apart from the two territories this weekend, and Washington D.C., which votes on June 14, all the contests will be held this Tuesday, June 7th. 

Note that the delegate totals on this map include superdelegates. 

The poll found that Clinton leads by 9 among those who have already cast a ballot, while Sanders leads by one among those not yet voting. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll said that "it will boil down to turnout. If Sanders can get his voters to the polls, he could pull out a victory in California.”

As we noted yesterday, "regardless of how California turns out, Clinton will easily surpass the required 2,383 delegates (including committed superdelegates) next Tuesday. She is expected to arrive at the Philadelphia convention with a lead of about 300 pledged delegates, making a case against those superdelegates flipping their position. That said, a Sanders victory here would certainly give him momentum to push his policies at the convention."

The 270toWin polling average gives Clinton a lead of about 9 points. Unclear how useful an average is in this case.  

Regardless of how California turns out, Clinton will easily surpass the required 2,383 delegates (including committed superdelegates) next Tuesday. She is expected to arrive at the Philadelphia convention with a lead of about 300 pledged delegates, making a case against those superdelegates flipping their position. That said, a Sanders victory here would certainly give him momentum to push his policies at the convention. 

California's 475 pledged delegates are the largest number for any state. New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana and both Dakotas also hold events on June 7th. In total, it is the most delegate-rich day outside Super Tuesday for the Democrats

New for 2016: The 2016 simulator is no longer coded in Flash, so it will work on your mobile device. Results can now split Maine and Nebraska, as there is at least some possibility that one congressional district in each of those states may be competitive in November. Finally, the map can be populated randomly or more East-to-West, based on actual poll closing times.

Additional new features will be coming soon.

The way the site is structured, we can only have one simulation pairing, and so we've chosen to launch (rather than wait) with the most likely fall match-up. For the Bernie Sanders fans out there, we continue to maintain the Sanders vs. Trump electoral map.

Johnson was also the party's 2012 nominee, when he received almost 1.3 million votes, about 1% of the general election total. That marked the highest vote count for a Libertarian in any presidential election. Percentage-wise, it was slightly less than the 1.06% total that Ed Clark (VP David Koch) received in 1980. In neither case did the party win any electoral votes.

No 3rd party candidate has won electoral votes since 1968? Will that change this year? Game it out with our interactive 3-way electoral map that includes the Libertarian Party.  

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Sabato's Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg-Gonzales Political Report, NBC Political Unit and The Fix (Washington Post).  

While this was not expected until June 7th, "Trump was put over the top in the Associated Press delegate count by a small number of the party's unbound delegates who told the AP they would support him at the national convention in July."

These unbound delegates are akin to superdelegates on the Democratic side, although far fewer in number. The AP query netted additional unbound delegates from North Dakota and Pennsylvania, among others.

Trump will be officially nominated at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland the week of July 18th.