Election News

Trump has polled around 5% when included in 2016 Republican nomination surveys. That puts him in a group that includes New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Texas Governor Rick Perry. More importantly, if this ranking holds, it places him within the top 10 candidates that will qualify for the first Republican debate this August.

An update on the Republican field follows. On the Democratic side the four announced candidates are former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee and former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley. Unlike the tightly bunched Republican field, Mrs. Clinton has a commanding lead in Democratic nomination polling.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Announced

Pending Decision

No Announcement Date Set 

In somewhat related news, Donald Trump is expected to make his 2016 plans known tomorrow.  

Senate: Republicans currently control the Senate, with 54 of the 100 seats. 34 seats are up in 2016, of which 24 are held by Republicans. Democrats will need to gain four or five seats to take the majority. A four seat gain creates a 50-50 tie, with the tie-breaker going to the Vice-President. Since we don't know which party will win the 2016 presidential election, the map lets you make that projection to break the tie. 

House: Republicans also control the House, with a 246-188 advantage. One vacancy, in Illinois' 18th District, will be filled on September 10. That seat is likely to remain in Republican control. The table below the House map initially displays all races expected to be competitive. Click or tap a state to see/modify all the Districts for that state.

Governor: Three states will choose a governor in 2015, with another 12 going to the polls in 2016. Republicans currently control 31 governorships to 18 for the Democrats. Alaska governor Bill Walker is an independent.

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Announced

Pending Decision

No Announcement Date Set 

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270toWin continues to roll out a series of historical interactive presidential election maps. Modify results, winners and election participants to change the course of history. 

Interactive electoral maps for 46 out of 57 historical elections are now available, representing the period 1828-2012*.

*Excludes 1872. That maps as well as elections prior to 1828 should be available at a later date.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton received 57%, well ahead of Bernie Sanders who was 2nd at 15%.

Quinnipiac also surveyed general election match-ups between Clinton and eight Republicans.  The former Secretary of State leads all challengers, with Paul and Rubio closest. Each trails Clinton by 4%.  

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Announced

Pending Decision (Date of Announcement)

All are expected to run

No Announcement Date Set

Bush & Walker all but certain to run; at or near the top of

many early polls. 

To qualify, candidates must have filed and declared their candidacy and place in the top ten of an average of the five most recent national polls as of early August. The specific qualifying polls will be determined by Fox News.

270toWin is following the Republican primary polls and, as it happens, we also have a polling average based on the five most recent polls. While the debate is obviously a ways off, the top ten currently are:

1. Bush  
2. Walker
3. Rubio*
4. Paul*
5. Carson*
6. Huckabee*
7. Cruz*
8. Christie
9. Trump
10. Kasich

Asterisked names have declared their candidacy. Trump and Kasich were not included in all five recent surveys. Perry just missed the cut-off, with Santorum, Jindal, Fiorina* and Graham also not currently in the top ten. 

**Use the comments to let us know if you would find this feature useful and what year(s) you'd like to see first.**

One of the more popular feature requests we get is to have interactive maps for historical presidential elections. There are a lot of fans of alternate history scenarios as well as those that would like to change past electoral maps in a 'what if' kind of way.

Starting with the actual historical election result, you'll be able to modify the winner in each state and the distribution of electoral votes. You'll also be able to make some changes to the names in the race to create alternate scenarios (e.g., what if Robert Kennedy had lived and become the 1968 Democratic nominee)?

In the sample below, we have taken the 1960 election and set Illinois and Texas to undecided, putting Kennedy below the 269 electoral votes needed to win that year*. These two states' results were among many decided by 2% or less that year and were among the more controversial.

* There were 537 electoral votes in 1960, reflecting the addition of Alaska and Hawaii with 3 electoral votes each. These additions temporarily increased the size of The House from 435 to 437 Members (+100 Senators = 537). The Census reapportionment after 1960 reset the House to the required 435, while the 23rd Amendment gave Washington D.C. electoral representation with 3 electoral votes. As a result, there have been 538 electoral votes available since 1964 (435+100+3), with 270 required to win.

May 28: Former New York Governor George Pataki (R) may or may not run

May 30: Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley (D) is expected to run

June 1: South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham (R) is expected to run

June 4: Former Texas Governor Rick Perry (R) is expected to run 

Declared Candidates

Democrat: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders

Republican: Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio 

Exploratory Committee

Democrat: Lincoln Chafee, Jim Webb

Republican: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Donald Trump, Scott Walker

Update May 18: Bobby Jindal announces the launch of his exploratory committee