September 16, 2019
Morning Consult released the first national poll taken entirely after last week's 3rd Democratic debate. There was little movement in the race, when compared to the firm's prior weekly tracking poll. Sen. Elizabeth Warren gained two points to 18%, but she continues to trail former Vice-President Joe Biden (32%) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (20%). Those two each lost 1%, as did Sen. Kamala Harris.
The graphic below shows the comparison for each candidate getting 2% in this new poll. You can also see how it relates to our calculated national average for each candidate. There are some notable differences; click/tap the graphic for full results on this and other polling for the Democratic nomination.
Warren has seen her support slowly increase through the summer in this poll. In the June 24 survey, just before the first Democratic debate, she was at 13%. That gain of 5% compares to a loss of 6% for Biden. Sanders was at 19%, so little change there. Harris got a nice bump from her performance in that first debate, peaking at 14% in the Morning Consult poll. However, that has all disappeared - her current 6% is identical to that on June 24.
Candidates that earn any pledged delegates in Iowa will make the stage, with an alternate polling and donor path also available.
Vermont to follow Saturday; both states hold their primaries on Super Tuesday, March 3
While the nominee will be someone else, the seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Mike Enzi is safely Republican.
The New Jersey Senator had been polling 2-3% nationally; missed the cut for Tuesday's debate
9th in our series: Idaho last voted Democratic in a presidential election back in 1964. Little reason to think that will change in 2020