Election News

Biden Falls to 4th in Latest Change Research California Poll

By 270toWin Staff - July 15, 2019

The latest Change Research poll of California shows a lot of movement from their prior survey in late May. Sens. Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are separated by just three points, essentially tied given the poll's margin of error.  Harris and Warren gained 8 and 10 points, respectively, from the prior poll. Sanders had a small decline in support.

The big loser in this poll is Joe Biden. The former vice president saw his support fall from 30% to 17%. He finds himself in 4th place. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg fell from 12% to 8% and remains in 5th place.

The Golden State has the nation's largest allocation of Democratic pledged delegates, currently estimated at 416. Based on this poll, at least the top four finishers would qualify* for delegates, having reached the required 15% threshold.  

California will hold its 2020 primary on March 3 - Super Tuesday. This is significantly earlier in the calendar than the June date it has used in recent cycles. The 416 pledged delegates represent about 30% of those expected to be available that day.

* This is a very rough estimate that won't be correct even if this poll is exactly right. Most Democratic delegates are allocated by congressional district, with the distribution based on the vote in each district.  This means, for example, Buttigieg could earn delegates by reaching 15% in one or more districts, even though he wouldn't qualify (in this scenario) for a share of the statewide delegates.

 

North Carolina 3rd District Republican Runoff Overview and Results

By 270toWin Staff - July 9, 2019

A Republican primary runoff is being held in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district on Tuesday, July 9. Polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern Time, with results available here after that.  Reload the page for the latest:

NC-3 has been vacant since the death of GOP Rep. Walter Jones in February. In the party primaries in April, no Republican exceeded 30%, necessitating today's runoff. The top two finishers that advanced are physicians Joan Perry and Greg Murphy, who is also a state representative. Perry has received extensive support from Republican women, hoping to increase their numbers in Congress. All 13 current House GOP women have endorsed Perry.

The winner will face off against the Democratic nominee, former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas on September 10th. This is a conservative district and the GOP winner today will start out as a large favorite.

Activist Tom Steyer Announces Presidential Run

By 270toWin Staff - July 9, 2019

Activist Tom Steyer joined the crowded 2020 Democratic field Tuesday. His campaign indicated it would spend at least $100 million on the race, starting with TV ads in several early primary/caucus states.

The decision marks a reversal of Steyer's announcement in January that he would not seek the Democratic nomination in 2020. At the time, he said that he would continue his activism around the impeachment of President Trump.

Rep. Eric Swalwell Ends 2020 Presidential Bid

By 270toWin Staff - July 8, 2019

California Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell has ended his long-shot 2020 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. Swalwell participated in the recent debate, where he challenged the frontrunner, former Vice President Joe Biden to "pass the torch". However, polling out both before and since the debate has indicated he was gaining little, if any traction in the crowded Democratic field. The four-term Bay Area congressman is expected to continue his career in the House, where he is a member of the Judiciary and Intelligence committees. 

Assuming nobody else qualifies to force a tiebreaker, the departure clears a spot for Montana Gov. Steve Bullock in the next debate, scheduled for July 30 and 31.

Iowa Poll: Biden Still Leads While Harris Gains; Sanders Drops to Single Digits

By 270toWin Staff - July 2, 2019

Sen. Kamala Harris' debate performance has yielded notable gains in a new Suffolk University poll of Democrats likely to attend the Iowa caucuses. Former vice president Joe Biden leads with 24%, followed by Harris at 16% and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%.  Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 9% and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 6%. No other candidate received more than 2% support.

This is the first Suffolk poll of Iowa this cycle, so no apples-apples comparison can be made. However, in the table below we've compared this poll with that released by Selzer & Co. in early June.  Selzer & Co. is one of the most highly regarded pollsters in the state.

Biden saw no change between the two polls, but many of the other candidates had significant moves. Harris more than doubled her level of support and moved into 2nd place.  Sanders and Buttigieg saw the most significant drop in support. Buttigieg had been polling significantly better here than in the national polls. While he may have previously received the benefit of being from a neighboring state, he is now perhaps being more adversely impacted by the ongoing firestorm around the police shooting of Eric Logan.

CNN Poll: Harris, Warren Make Large Move After First Debate

By 270toWin Staff - July 1, 2019

A new CNN poll shows significant gains for Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, putting them within striking distance of former vice president Joe Biden. The survey, taken after last week's Democratic debate is compared to the prior CNN poll from early June in the table below.

To see other state and national polls, visit our Democratic Nomination page.

Harris Surges in Post-Debate Poll

By 270toWin Staff - June 30, 2019

California Sen. Kamala Harris' debate performance has led to a surge in support according to a new poll from Morning Consult. Harris received 12% from the 2,407 registered Democrats surveyed, doubling her pre-debate level of support.  Most of the gain came at the expense of former Vice President Joe Biden, who lost five points.  Still at 33%, Biden remains well ahead of the field.

The debate didn't seem to move the needle much for the remainder of the field. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, who both saw generally favorable coverage after their first night performance, saw little change in support. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who seemed to come out on the short end of a testy exchange with Castro did see his support fall from 4% to 2%.  

Morning Consult has been conducting a weekly tracking poll of the Democratic field. The current survey was an abbreviated version of that, taken from the conclusion of the debate on June 27 through June 28.

The next Democratic debate will take place on July 30 and 31 in Detroit. It will be hosted and moderated by CNN. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock has qualified, along with the 20 that took place in the just-completed event. However, per DNC rules, a maximum of 20 candidates will be able to participate. If none of the qualifiers withdraws from the race before then, a tiebreaker will take place to eliminate one of them from the debate. 

Democratic Polling Leaders by State

By 270toWin Staff - June 29, 2019

Here's a page where you can see the top 3 polling Democrats in each state. There's at least one poll in 18 states, although it remains limited in most places.  

Select any of the states for more information about its nominating contest, including an estimate of delegates based on the polls.

It's likely that we'll see some shifts in the rankings as the first post-debate polls are released.

Vote Now - Who Won the Final Night of the Democratic Debate?

By 270toWin Staff - June 27, 2019

Cast your vote for the winner of night two of the first Democratic debate.  

Click the image below to vote. You'll then be able to view live results.

 

First Democratic Debate Concludes Tonight

By 270toWin Staff - June 27, 2019

The 2nd and final night of the first Democratic debate will take place beginning at 9:00 PM in Miami.  Aside from those that will appear on stage, everything will be the same as we noted last night:

The prospective nominees will be placed on stage based on a polling average calculated earlier this month, with those polling highest at the center of the stage.

The debate will be hosted and broadcast by NBC News, MSNBC and Telemundo. Broadcast time is 9:00PM to 11:00PM Eastern. The moderators are Savannah Guthrie, Lester Holt, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and José Diaz-Balart. 

There will be no opening statements. Candidates will have 60 seconds to answer questions and 30 seconds to respond to follow-ups. At the end of the two hours, each candidate can make closing remarks.

Tonight will feature four of the top five candidates in the polls to this point. Here's a New York Times overview of each candidate and some of what to watch for.

Visit 270toWin at the conclusion of the debate to participate in our snap poll of who won the night.

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