Poll: Virginia Governor's Race a Dead Heat

A new Monmouth University poll shows a dead heat in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are tied at 46% each among registered voters. The result is an improvement for Youngkin; he had trailed by five points in last month's Monmouth survey. 

Using its electoral models, Monmouth says that "a range of reasonable outcomes" is a race decided by 3% or less in either direction. That is reflected in the 'Range' columns in the table below.

Monmouth surveyed 1,005 registered voters in the state. The margin of error is 3.1%.

From the survey release: "The biggest swing in support from Monmouth’s last poll comes from independent voters, registering a 48% to 39% lead for Youngkin now compared with a 37% to 46% deficit in September. Youngkin has also cut into McAuliffe’s advantage with women voters. The Democrat currently has a narrow edge among women (47% to 43%), down from a sizable 14-point lead last month (52% to 38%).

Youngkin has increased his support in the reddest part of the commonwealth, western Virginia, where he currently leads McAuliffe by 66% to 27% (up from 58% to 34% in September). At the same time, McAuliffe has slipped slightly in heavily-blue Northern Virginia. He leads there by 58% to 34%. This is down only slightly from his 58% to 29% lead last month."

The Real Clear Politics average for the race is currently McAuliffe +1.8%.

Early voting is currently underway for the November 2 election.

 

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Stacey Abrams Running for Georgia Governor in 2022

Kemp defeated Abrams by 1.4%, the 3rd closest gubernatorial race of 2018

Oregon Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio to Retire

In his 18th term, he is the longest serving House member in Oregon history.

Massachusetts Republican Gov. Charlie Baker Won't Seek a Third Term in 2022

The deep blue lean of the state will favor Democrats flipping the seat next year

Live Results: Atlanta Mayoral Runoff, Massachusetts House Special Election

Two elections will close out the month of November

Long Island Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi Enters New York Gubernatorial Race

Pending redistricting shifts, the decision will make his district a GOP target in the midterm elections.