Election News

2014 Election Results

December 19, 2014

Aside from a state legislature vote in Vermont to elect a governor (will likely be decided for the incumbent Democrat), the results are now in for all 2014 midterm congressional and governor elections.  Select a link below to view a results map.

 

  • Senate: Republicans gained 9 seats, giving them 54 in the new Senate. To view the new Senate, see our 2015 Senate map.
  • House: Republicans gained 13 seats, giving them 247 in the new House. The last time Republicans had this kind of majority was in the 80th Congress (1947-49), when they held 246 seats. Interestingly, that was the 'Do Nothing' Congress, so-named by Democratic president Harry S. Truman. Republicans lost 75 seats in the subsequent election.
  • Governor: Republicans will control 31 governorships next year, up from 29 this year. Democrats lost 3 seats, with one of those going to an independent in Alaska.

 



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2015 Senate Map

December 18, 2014

270toWin has launched its 2015 Senate map, reflecting the 100 Senators to be part of the 114th Congress, which will be seated in early January.  The new Senate will have a Republican majority with 54 seats, up from 45 in the prior Congress.  

The new Congress will include 12 new Senators that won seats in the 2014 election, eleven Republicans and one Democrat.  (Of these, two Republicans and the Democrat replace Senators of the same party.  Removing those yields the +9 Republican gain.)

The map is colored to reflect the party composition of Senators in each state. Hover over (or tap) a state to see its Senators. The table under the map divides the Senate by class  / next election date. For those Senators up in 2016, we list the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball

A party breakdown of those classes can be seen to the right of the map.  Interestingly, each class is currently heavily stacked toward one party or the other. There's no historical reason for this distribution. In fact, with no state's two Senators in the same class, it seems like an unlikely evolution.  Yet that is where we are, and 2016 will have 24 Republican seats up for grabs vs. just 10 currently held by Democrats.

  

     


American Thinker: GOP Needs Hispanic on 2016 Ticket

December 18, 2014

According to this article from American Thinker, a Hispanic candidate will be a major plus, and perhaps the deciding factor, to any GOP effort to win the 2016 presidential election. Beyond Florida, a Hispanic might also help the GOP win in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.  The author believes the party must win at least two of those three states to have a legitimate chance. Several possibilities are noted, with popular Nevada governor Brian Sandoval highlighted as perhaps the best option.

 

 


270toWin Crowdsourced Senate Forecast

November 4, 2014

If 270toWin voters are correct, Republicans will control the Senate with 52 seats, Democrats will have 47 and a third independent will join the body after this year's elections.

Results are based on about 1,500 valid entries to our prediction contest.  Prizes will go to some of those with the best predictions, with the goal being to encourage people to vote based on who they think will win, as opposed to their own personal preferences.

The first image below shows the projected winner in each race; the 2nd the percentage distribution. The closer races in the polls (AK, CO, GA, IA) trended more Republican in recent days. Kansas was the closest race, with Greg Orman remaining slightly ahead in the end.

While this forecast says Georgia and Louisiana will ultimately go Republican, it is worth noting where we'll be after Election Day. If there are runoffs in both Georgia (possible) and Louisiana (very likely), and no decision by Greg Orman on party affiliation, Republicans would have 50 seats heading into the Louisiana runoff, one short of the number needed to officially control the Senate.     

 

 

 


Late Morning Update on Crowdsourced Senate Forecast

November 3, 2014

Republicans will control the Senate with 52 seats, Democrats will have 47 and a third Independent will join the body based on the current forecast of 270toWin users.  

This map is based on about 1,500 valid submissions over the last 6 days through late morning Monday.  Predictions added by midnight tonight will show up in the final results to be published early Tuesday.

The first image below shows the projected winner by state; the 2nd the percentage distribution. The closer states (AK, CO, GA, IA) have been trending Republican in recent days. Kansas continues to be pretty consistent at around 60% for Greg Orman.

While this forecast says Georgia and Louisiana will ultimately go Republican, it is worth noting where we'll be after Election Day. If there are runoffs in both Georgia (possible) and Louisiana (very likely), and no decision by Greg Orman on party affiliation, Republicans would have 50 seats heading into the Louisiana runoff, one short of the number needed to officially control the Senate.     

 

 

 


No Suspense: We Already Know the Party Winners for 77 House Seats

October 31, 2014

Almost 1/5 of the 435 House seats will go uncontested between the two major parties this November based on an analysis by 270toWin. (Underlying data here) 41 are held by Democrats, 36 by Republicans. These seats fall into 3 categories:

  • Uncontested: 32 seats (16 Democrat, 16 Republican) are completely uncontested. This includes 7 of Georgia's 14 Districts and 6 of the 9 in Massachusetts. The incumbent is running in 30 of these races: Phil Gingrey (R) GA-11 opted to run for Senate, while Ralph Hall (R) TX-4 was defeated in his party's primary.
  • No Major Party Opposition: 37 seats (20 Democrat, 17 Republican) pit one major party against one or more 3rd party or independent candidates. While acknowledging that the election hasn't yet occurred, none of these appear to be competitive races. (Two of these districts, LA-2 and LA-3 have multiple candidates from the major party as well as 3rd party/independent opposition, owing to the open primary that will take place on Election Day). 
  • Both Candidates From Same Party: 8 seats (5 Democrat, 3 Republican). 7 of these are from California, 1 from Washington. These states hold 'top two' primaries, where the top two vote getters advance to the general election, regardless of party. 

Data for this review was gathered from and is courtesy of The Green Papers and Wikipedia. If we've missed anything, please let us know.


Rhode Island Primary Results

September 10, 2014

The Rhode Island nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on September 9.   

Governor:  State Treasurer Gina Raimondo defeated Providence Mayor Angel Taveras and Clay Pell to win the Democratic primary.  On the Republican side, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung defeated Ken Block.   This race, to fill the seat of the retiring Lincoln Chafee, leans Democratic as we look toward November, although no general election polling is yet available.

Senate:  Incumbent Jack Reed (D) will meet Marketing Consultant Mark Zaccaria in November; both won uncontested primaries.   Reed is a heavy favorite to be reelected; our Senate simulator currently shows a a <99% probability.

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Both Congressional districts are safely Democratic.

To see the current roster of Rhode Island elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


New Hampshire Primary Results

September 10, 2014

The New Hampshire nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on September 9.   

Governor:  Incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) swatted away token primary opposition.  In November, she will face off against businessman Walt Havenstein who held off Andrew Hemingway to win the Republican nomination.   Hassan has led by over 20 points in early polling.  While this will likely shrink as Republicans coalesce around their nominee, she is likely to win reelection in November.

Senate:  As expected, former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown won the Republican nomination, getting approximately 50% of the vote in the primary.   Incumbent Jeanne Shaheen was unopposed on the Democratic side.   Shaheen has led Brown in most polling to date and our Senate simulator currently gives her a 95% chance of being reelected.

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Both of New Hampshire's congressional districts, held by Democrats in their first term, are seen as competitive this November

NH-01: Incumbent Carol Shea-Porter ran unopposed.  She will meet former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who held off Dan Innis for the Republican nomination.  The district includes the southeastern part of the state.

NH-02:  Incumbent Ann Kuster also ran unopposed.   State Representative Marilinda Garcia won her primary fairly easily.

To see the current roster of New Hampshire elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


Massachusetts Primary Results

September 10, 2014

The Massachusetts nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on September 9.   

Governor:  Attorney General Martha Coakley won by 6 points in the Democratic primary, a result that was much closer than the polls indicated.  She will meet Republican Charlie Baker in November. Coakley is favored to win by the political pros, but some recent polls show the race to be pretty competitive.    Democrats may be nervous about a repeat of 2010, when Coakley led early in a Senate campaign she ultimately lost against Scott Brown.

Senate:  Incumbent Ed Markey (D) will meet Selectman Brian Herr in November; both won uncontested primaries.   Markey is a heavy favorite to be reelected; our Senate simulator currently shows a 97% probability.

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Massachusetts nine congressional districts are all held by Democrats.   Aside from District 6, all these seats are safe, and all incumbents are expected to be reelected.

MA-06: Nine term incumbent John Tierney was ousted by businessman Seth Moulton for this district encompassing northeastern Massachusetts.   Tierney becomes the first MA Democratic incumbent to lose a primary in 22 years. Tierney was weakened politically by his wife's conviction on federal tax charges in 2010.  Moultion will face former State Senator Richard Tisei in November.   This race is seem as a toss-up, perhaps leaning Democratic.   Interestingly, Moulton's win probably increases the likelihood that Democrats will hold the seat.

To see the current roster of Massachsuetts elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


Delaware Senate Primary Results

September 10, 2014

Delaware Republicans nominated businessman Kevin Wade to face incumbent Chris Coons this November.    Coons is a prohibitive favorite to be reelected in this deeply blue state.   In the House, incumbent Democrat John Carney will meet Rose Izzo in the battle for the state's single congressional district.   Carney is expected to easily win a third term.



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