Election News

The AP is retracting its call of a winner for U.S. House in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District. The AP called the race for Republican Mark Harris on Nov. 9, after Democrat Dan McCready conceded. https://t.co/u3heS1YiJj

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 30, 2018

The state board has the authority to call for a new election if "irregularities or improprieties occurred to such an extent that they taint the results of the entire election and cast doubt on its fairness."  For more, follow this Twitter Moments thread from WSOC-TV reporter Joe Bruno. 

The 2018 midterm elections saw five states move off that list, with one added. Democratic incumbents in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota were defeated as was the Republican incumbent in Nevada. All five of those states moved to a single-party delegation. Interestingly, these were the only five incumbents to lose re-election. The open seat in Arizona was a Democratic gain; that will now have one Senator from each party. As a result, in 2019, 22 states will have two Republican Senators and 18 states will have two Democratic Senators. 

* Since direct election of U.S. Senators began after the passage of the 17th Amendment in 1913. There were 48 states from 1913 until 1959. Independents are counted separately, even if caucusing with a major party.

Seven of California's 53 congressional districts sided with Hillary Clinton in 2016 while re-electing a GOP member of Congress. All seven of these districts were flipped to the Democrats this year. That party will now hold 46 of those 53 seats. This spreadsheet shows the change in partisan composition by state as a result of the midterm election.

Related: 2018 House Interactive Map - Actual Results

Note that you may hear that Republicans gained one seat (not two) during this election cycle. This is accurate, with the difference attributable to the 2017 special election in Alabama that saw a Democratic gain.

Click the image below to see the results for all 35 elections. We also have an interactive version of the 2018 actual results. 

Looking Ahead

For those that have asked, look for the 2020 Senate interactive map during the first quarter of 2019. 

All else equal, 2018 was a difficult year for Democrats, as the party had to defend 26 of the 35 seats that were contested (25-8 excluding special elections). Things will be somewhat reversed in the next two cycles, with Republican having to defend over 60% of the seats up in 2020 and again in 2022. As 2018 saw a two-seat gain for the GOP, the 2024 cycle will go from 25-8 Democrats to 23-10^a.

Note that the GOP number of 22 in 2020 includes a special election in Arizona. The winner will complete the final two years of the seat previously held by Sen. John McCain, who died in 2018. That seat is currently excluded from the 2022 counts.

^aIndependent Senators in Maine and Vermont caucus with the Democratic Party

The runoff is between Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and her Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Mike Espy. It was necessitated when none of the four candidates in the November 6th special election received a majority of the vote.

Hyde-Smith was appointed by Gov. Phil Bryant, taking office after former Sen. Thad Cochran resigned this past April. The winner of today's runoff will serve the remainder of Cochran's term. The seat is next up for a full six-year term in the 2020 election.

Outlook  

Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is favored in this deep-red state. However, the race appeared to tighten after several racially tinged controversies involving Hyde-Smith arose. Both parties added resources, and President Trump headlined two election-eve campaign rallies. 

Although Espy and Hyde-Smith were within 0.5% in the November 6th vote, the two GOP candidates together totaled nearly 58% - a 17 point margin over Espy. Interestingly, the party totals that day were nearly identical to Trump's 57.9% to 40.1% win over Clinton in 2016. The only subsequent poll, taken last week, gave Hyde-Smith a 54% to 44% edge in the two-person runoff.

Regardless of the outcome, the GOP will retain control of the Senate in 2019. The party will have 53 seats if Hyde-Smith wins, which would be a net gain of two in the 2018 elections.

"Rep. Valadao’s lead has shrunk from over 4,900 and 8% on 11/7 to just over 400 with thousands of additional ballots left to count in areas favoring Cox. It is still quite possible for Valadao to hold his seat, but if he does, it will be by a very, very slim margin, certainly not the margin inferred on election night."

California 21st District

As a result, the day ends as it began, with Democrats holding a 234-200 edge, and one race undecided.

The Mississippi runoff is scheduled for Tuesday, November 27th. Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is favored in this deep-red state. However, with both parties adding resources, and Donald Trump planning two election-eve rallies, the race is looking more competitive than originally expected. Much of the tightening can be traced back to an offhand comment Hyde-Smith made about lynchings as well as her unwillingness to address the controversy it caused.

Click the image below to see the results for all 36 elections. We also have an interactive version of the 2018 actual results.

Next year will see gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. First term governors Matt Bevin (R, KY) and John Bel Edwards (D, LA) are expected to seek re-election. Gov. Phil Bryant (R) is term-limited in Mississippi. The 2019 elections will be held on Tuesday, November 5th.