Election News

Despite being more competitive than the three other vacant House districts, we know for sure that a Republican will win Tuesday's special election in Texas' 6th congressional district. The seat has been open since Republican Rep. Ron Wright died in February.

No candidate received a majority of the vote in the May 1 all-party primary, necessitating Tuesday's runoff.  This wasn't a surprise in a huge field of 23 candidates. What was a bit unexpected was that Republicans secured both slots on the ballot. 

Susan Wright, widow of Ron Wright, led the primary field with about 19% of the vote. State Rep. Jake Ellzey took the second spot, with just under 14%. Ellzey narrowly edged out Democrat Jana Sanchez, setting up Tuesday's intraparty election.

Former U.S. Rep Abby Finkenauer of Iowa announced Thursday she would seek the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate next year.

I'm Abby Finkenauer, and I'm running for U.S. Senate because Iowa—and our Democracy—are worth fighting for.

After 46 years in DC, @ChuckGrassley has lost touch with both.

I'm from a proud union family. We don't back down. I'm in this to win.

Join us: https://t.co/28EVInMyva pic.twitter.com/NKvrJruAjW

— Abby Finkenauer (@Abby4Iowa) July 22, 2021

The current incumbent is Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley. He first won election in 1980 and is currently the second most senior member of the U.S. Senate, behind only Vermont's Patrick Leahy (D). Grassley, who will be 88 in September, has not yet announced whether he will seek an 8th term in 2022.

Most analysts see the race as safely Republican given Grassley's long tenure and the increasingly red lean of the state. However, that could change should Grassley retire and Democrats field a strong nominee. Iowa is one of 34 U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2022.

Finkenauer served one term representing Iowa's first congressional district. She defeated incumbent Republican Rod Blum by about 5% in 2018. Her 2020 reelection bid fell short, losing to Republican Ashley Hinson by 2.5%.

The Cook Political Report has updated its 2022 Senate outlook, with four races seen as more competitive than earlier in the year.

The full forecaster analysis can be found here (subscription required).

Florida: Likely to Lean Republican. Reflects the entry of a high profile Democrat, Rep. Val Demings and her strong fundraising numbers, which have kept pace with those of incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.

There are five legislative special general elections on Tuesday. The most competitive interparty contest is a runoff for a Georgia State House seat in suburban Atlanta.

State Senate

Alabama District 14

There are 35 State Senate districts in Alabama. Currently, the chamber has 26 Republicans and 8 Democrats. The next regularly scheduled election is in 2022.

District 14 is a largely rural area in the central part of the state. The vacancy there was created when Republican Cam Ward was appointed Director of the Alabama Bureau of Pardons and Paroles last December.  In 2018, Ward was reelected with about 73% of the vote.

Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams is the projected winner of the New York City Democratic mayoral primary. Adams held a narrow one-point lead over former Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia in updated results released late Tuesday. However, with most of the ballots included in those results, the Associated Press and Decision Desk felt comfortable calling the race for Adams.

Adams will be an overwhelming favorite in the general election against the GOP nominee, Curtis Sliwa. If victorious in November, he'll be the second black mayor in city history. David Dinkins served one term from 1990-1993.

Eric Adams holds a one-point lead over Kathryn Garcia in the latest ranked-choice vote results released by the New York City Board of Elections. In terms of votes, Adams leads by 8,426 votes.

This tabulation included a large portion of absentee ballots, which had not yet been counted in the first ranked-choice results released last Tuesday.

The NYC Board of Elections has released corrected but still unofficial results of ranked-choice voting. Eric Adams and Kathryn Garcia were the last two remaining, with Adams leading by 51.1% to 48.9%. Garcia prevailed by just 347 votes over Maya Wiley to advance to the head-head round with Adams. 

This corrects numbers released in error Tuesday. Those had included about 135,000 test ballots that the Board failed to remove those before calculating the results.

In the end, there was little change in the final outcome. Adams led by about 9 points on Election Day; the final difference was much closer.

You had one job.....

Tuesday evening, the NYC Board of Elections retracted mayoral ranked-choice voting results released earlier in the day. The Board said that the numbers released included 135,000 test ballots that had never been cleared from the system. 

The Board is expected to re-run the results Wednesday.

These results were retracted by the NYC Board of Elections Tuesday night. The release had included 135,000 test ballots.  Updated results are expected Wednesday.

The data below is no longer accurate.

In the first unofficial results of ranked-choice voting, Eric Adams and Kathryn Garcia were the last two remaining, with Adams leading by 51.1% to 48.9%. Maya Wiley was narrowly eliminated before Garcia. 

We're following one election today.

California State Assembly District 18 

Special All Party Primary

There are 80 seats in the California State Assembly. It is currently comprised of 59 Democrats, 19 Republicans and 1 independent. The next regularly scheduled elections are in 2022. 

District 18 is in the Oakland area, entirely within Alameda County. The vacancy was created in April when Democrat Rob Bonta resigned after being confirmed as California Attorney General.