Election News

We've launched the 2018 Senate Race Ratings page, which summarizes how each race is viewed by three pundits. Those ratings form the basis for the 'Battle for Control' table, which shows where each party stands in its efforts to hold or regain majority status. 

Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas announced Tuesday that he will not seek reeelection in 2018. The Dallas-area Republican, now in his 8th term, is chair of the powerful House Financial Services Committee. He will serve out the remainder of his term.

In this deep red district, Hensarling easily won reelection last November with nearly 81% of the vote. The Democratic Party did not field a candidate; Libertarian Ken Ashby took the other 19%. Donald Trump won here by about 29 points. 

Republican Jeff Flake of Arizona announced Tuesday that he will not seek reeelection to a 2nd term in 2018. Flake made his announcement on the Senate floor, in a speech that bemoaned the direction politics is taking in the United States. 

Flake, who has had a difficult relationship with President Trump, made waves in his party earlier in the summer with his book "Conscience of a Conservative". Two polls from late summer had him trailing the much more conservative Kelli Ward by over 25% in the Republican primary. Ward is very much in the Trump/Bannon wing of the party. As Flake told The Arizona Republic "here's the bottom line: The path that I would have to travel to get the Republican nomination is a path I'm not willing to take, and that I can't in good conscience take." 

Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf has set March 13, 2018, as the date for a special election to fill the vacant 18th Congressional District seat. That seat was previously held by Republican Tim Murphy, who resigned earlier this month after text messages surfaced of him urging a woman with whom he was having an affair to seek an abortion. 

There are now two vacancies in the U.S. House. The other is in UT-03, vacated earlier this year by Republican Jason Chaffetz. That seat will be filled in a special election on November 7th. The current U.S. House has 239 Republicans and 194 Democrats, along with the two vacancies.

Updating an earlier story, nine term Republican Pat Tiberi of Ohio announced he would not seek reelection in 2018 and would resign Congress no later than January 31, 2018. 

STATEMENT: It has been the most remarkable honor of my life to serve the people of #OH12. https://t.co/RUD4uQRqVv

— Rep. Pat Tiberi (@PatTiberi) October 19, 2017

Tiberi represents Ohio's 12th Congressional District, which includes areas to the north and east of Columbus. The interestingly shaped district is drawn favorably for Republicans and Tiberi easily won a 9th term last November by nearly 40 points. That said, Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the seat from 'safe' to 'likely' Republican. This is due to the overall political environment coupled with the uncertainties (e.g., low turnout) often associated with special elections. 

The New York Times reports that nine-term Republican Pat Tiberi (OH-12) may resign from Congress to take a position with a business consortium in Ohio. Tiberi is an influential member of the House Ways and Means Committee and was a close ally of former House speaker John Boehner.

A new poll from Fox News finds the Alabama Senate race a dead heat. Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones are both at 42%, with 11% unsure. The special election is about seven weeks out, on December 12th. The poll surveyed 801 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.5%. The full topline for the poll can be found here.

Maine Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that she will forego a run for governor of her state in 2018, and (presumably) run for reelection in 2020. The four-term moderate Republican had been considering this decision for many months.  Current governor Paul LePage cannot run again due to term limits.

If Collins had run, she could have remained in the Senate during the campaign. However, winning the race would have required her to step down. A replacement would have been named by LePage.

Republican Roy Moore continues to hold an 8 point lead over Democrat Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate special election race, according to a new poll by Cygnal, an Alabama-based firm. Moore leads 49% to 41%. The 8 point margin matches that of a poll released earlier this month.

The election is in two months, on Tuesday December 12th.

Carol Shea-Porter, a Democrat representing New Hampshire's very competitive first congressional district, announced she will not seek reelection in 2018. The move was unexpected. According to the Boston Globe:

"Her decision is a political bombshell with national implications. At a time when Democrats are looking to win back a majority in the House, Shea-Porter is one of [only 12] Democrats holding office in a district that Republican Donald Trump won last year."