Election News

This is a very competitive race. Edwards has a one point lead in the Real Clear Politics average. That is consistent with the toss-up rating assigned by most forecasters. Sabato's Crystal Ball does see a small edge for the incumbent, and moved the race to Leans Democratic the other day. You can read their analysis of the race here.

Saturday's election is a top-two runoff, necessitated when no candidate received a majority of the vote in the state's all-party primary on October 12. Edwards ended up at about 47%. Rispone and GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham split most of the remainder of the vote, with Rispone finishing slightly ahead. 

While the polling may ever so slightly favor Edwards, Saturday's vote could still go either way. In Rispone's favor is the fact that the two main Republicans combined for 51% of the total vote in the primary and, of course, Louisiana is a deep red state. President Trump also held a rally for Rispone in Bossier City earlier in the week.

This is the last of three gubernatorial elections in 2019, all competitive races in Republican strongholds. The parties have split the other two races, with the GOP prevailing in an open seat contest in neighboring Mississippi.  Democrats flipped the seat in Kentucky, defeating the incumbent. There will be 11 gubernatorial elections in 2020. 

This Saturday, the final gubernatorial race of 2019 will be decided, as Louisiana holds a runoff election. Incumbent Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is seeking a 2nd term. He's opposed by the Republican nominee, businessman Eddie Rispone. Polling has shown a very tight race, but most surveys give Edwards a 2-3% lead. This Mason-Dixon poll is reflective of that.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern on Saturday. Visit 270toWin for live results.

Update:  The candidates will appear in this order, from left to right on stage:  Booker, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Sanders, Harris, Yang and Steyer.

Neither Texas resident that participated in October's debate will be in Atlanta. Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro did not meet the Democratic National Committee's polling requirements, although he did cross the donor threshold.  Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke withdrew from the race on November 1.

Looking ahead, the final debate of 2019 will be held on December 19 in Los Angeles*. It will be hosted by PBS and Politico. At this point, six of the ten candidates in next week's debate have met the DNC's more stringent qualifying criteria.

* Originally scheduled for the campus of UCLA, the debate has been moved to Loyola Marymount University.

Sanford was averaging less than 2% in limited national polling.  Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld and former U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh remain in the race, but are also seeing little traction against an incumbent president who enjoys broad support within the Republican party.

The filing deadline for New Hampshire's February 11 first-in-the-nation primary is this Friday. Given the proximity to his state, it would seem likely that Patrick would register for this contest if he is serious about jumping in to the race.

In a statement posted to Facebook, King said he wanted to spend more time with his family. It is notable that his 2018 election win was by just 6 points; he had never previously won re-election by fewer than 12 points. The district voted for Donald Trump by 9 points in 2016, after preferring Barack Obama by 5 points in 2012. Given the loss of incumbency and the overall political climate, the district is expected to be more closely-contested in 2020. Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed its rating from Likely to Leans Republican, with a hint that it could be a toss-up later on.  We expect other forecasters to update their ratings earlier this week.

Crystal Ball House ratings change: NY-2 moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican following long-time Rep. Peter King’s retirement. Could easily be a Toss-up too - south-central Long Island, Obama-to-Trump district (53-44 Trump).

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) November 11, 2019

King is the 20th current GOP member to retire; 8 Democrats have also announced they will not run for re-election in 2020.

Bloomberg's spokesman Howard Wolfson said "We now need to finish the job and ensure that Trump is defeated — but Mike is increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well positioned to do that". He went on to say that "If Mike runs he would offer a new choice to Democrats built on a unique record running America’s biggest city, building a business from scratch and taking on some of America’s toughest challenges as a high-impact philanthropist.”

Although Alabama's primary isn't until March 3 (Super Tuesday), it is the state with the earliest filing deadline.  

27 current House members have announced they won't seek re-election in 2020. This includes 19 Republicans and 8 Democrats.

In addition to controlling all levers of state government, the win gives Democrats control over the redistricting process after the 2020 Census. For more on this, see this article on the importance of Tuesday's General Assembly elections in Virginia.

* Control of both branches of the state legislature and the governorship.

Unpopular Republican Gov. Matt Bevin lost his bid for a 2nd term to his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Andy Beshear. Bevin has thus far refused to concede the closely-contested race, which was only decided by about 5,000 votes.

Bevin's loss came despite a last-minute visit by President Trump on Monday. It wasn't enough to save the governor, who had alienated many groups during his term. He recently polled as the most unpopular governor in the country.

Bevin was also up against a moderate Democrat with a well-known family name. Beshear's father Steve was a two-term governor of Kentucky who immediately preceded Bevin.

The GOP had a good night in down-ballot elections, sweeping other state-wide races. This serves to highlight the specific dynamics of the governor's race that led to a Democratic win in this deep red state.

Mississippi Governor

Term-limited Republican Gov. Phil Bryant will be succeeded by Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, who defeated Attorney General Jim Hood by about 6 points. It was the hardest-fought Mississippi gubernatorial race since 2003 which was also the year Hood was elected to his current office. 

Hood is the only Democrat to currently hold a statewide office in the state. There will be none in January as Republican Lynn Fitch won the race for attorney general over Democrat Jennifer Collins.

Louisiana Governor

Up next is the runoff for governor of Louisiana, to be held on Saturday, November 16.  Unlike Tuesday's races, the current incumbent of this deep red state is a Democrat, John Bel Edwards. The race is seen as a toss-up, with recent polling within the margin of error. President Trump will be in the state Wednesday to campaign for GOP challenger Eddie Rispone.