Decision Desk HQ projects that @JoeBiden has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273.
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2020
Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States of America.
Race called at 11-06 08:50 AM EST
All Results: https://t.co/BgcQsEyt3j
Five states remain uncalled.
Since our earlier article, Wisconsin was called for Joe Biden, while Maine's 2nd district was won again by Donald Trump. Wisconsin becomes the first state to flip from 2016, although Biden did also capture Nebraska's 2nd district.
This leaves seven states where a winner has not been projected. Based on the current map, there are 18 paths for Biden to 270, 11 for Trump and 2 that would result in a 269-269 tie.
Some outlets have called Arizona for Biden; our results provider Decision Desk HQ has not as of yet.
Click the image below to use our 'Road to 270' feature to game out the uncalled states.
Here are the live vote counts for the seven uncalled states. Aside from Nevada, these were all won by Donald Trump in 2016.
In races called by our results provider Decision Desk HQ, Joe Biden has 227 electoral votes to 213 for Donald Trump as of early Wednesday morning. Aside from Biden winning the electoral vote associated with Nebraska's 2nd district, the map is identical to 2016 in the called states.
Based on the current map, there are 37 paths for Biden to 270, 24 for Trump and 11 that would result in a 269-269 tie. Some are obviously more likely than others. FOX has called Arizona for Biden, although that has not been confirmed by others.
Click the image below to use our 'Road to 270' feature to game out those remaining states.
Here are the live vote counts for these remaining races. Aside from Nevada, these were all won by Donald Trump in 2016.
This is the final 2020 election forecast from Sabato's Crystal Ball. As is their custom, races with a toss-up rating are projected as leaning toward a party. The only exceptions this year are for the two Georgia U.S. Senate races - the forecaster sees those both as likely headed for a runoff.
Maps of the final Crystal Ball projections follow. Click or tap any of them for an interactive version.
November 2: All toss-ups are removed. Florida, Iowa, ME-2 and Ohio move to Leans Republican; Georgia and North Carolina to Leans Democratic.
November 2: Iowa moves from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican; North Carolina from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Texas from Likely to Leans Republican.
<November 2: 18 Toss-ups moved: 11 to Leans Democratic, 7 to Leans Republican. NV-3 moves from Likely to Leans Democratic; NC-9 Safe to Likely Republican; NC-11, WA-3 Likely to Leans Republican.
November 2: Montana moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican.
This is the 51st and final installment in The Road to 270 series. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
North Carolina has transformed from being the heart of the tobacco industry in the old south to a bustling hub for business and technology. The Tar Heel state has shed its traditional conservative lean in favor of a decidedly purple or light pink status. A population boom over the last 10 years has brought enormous change to North Carolina. Bitter polarization has come to grip the state's politics during this period, with the Tar Heel state the subject of numerous court battles over voting rights, LGBT rights, same sex marriage, etc.
2010 was probably the single most important election in the history of North Carolina. After over a century of Democratic control of the legislature, Republicans toppled the Democratic supermajorities and won supermajorities of their own. Governor Bev Perdue (D) went from having the trifecta to being a sitting duck with Republicans able to override many of her vetoes. The North Carolina Governor possesses no veto power over redistricting so the GOP had full control over the process. Republicans successfully gerrymandered their supermajorities to remain until 2018. That 2010 election ushered in an era of conservative dominance and transformed a once sleepy state party.
Following the election of Barack Obama in 2008, Democrats were quite optimistic about the upcoming elections in North Carolina and for good reason. Obama became the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter to win the state and Kay Hagan (D) had just defeated Senator Elizabeth Dole (R). Democrats set their sights on defeating freshman Senator Richard Burr (R) in 2010 and popular Secretary of State Elaine Marshall jumped in the race against him. National Democrats backed former State Senator Cal Cunningham, who had the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). Cunningham lost a runoff against Marshall by 20%. That would be the last time - until the Tennessee primary this year - that a DSCC backed candidate lost the primary. 2010 didn't turn out to be a good year for Democrats and Burr won reelection by 12%.
By 2012, Governor Bev Perdue was deeply unpopular and opted against running for reelection. Democrats nominated Lt. Governor Walter Dalton, who although was elected separately, was nonetheless heavily tied to Perdue by Republicans. Dalton could not escape Perdue's shadow and lost the general election to Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R). McCrory - at the time a moderate Republican, was also the party's nominee in 2008. In office, McCrory was little more than a figurehead for the state's Republican establishment and signed nearly every piece of conservative legislation that came before his desk.
The 2010 election set in motion a chain of events that led up to present day and helps explain North Carolina's perpetually gridlocked and polarized politics.
Due to court ordered redistricting, North Carolina is seeing several competitive congressional races this year, an unusual occurrence in recent cycles. Unlike many other states, North Carolina lacks a true swing district. All 13 Congressional Districts have voted the same way in the past three presidential elections.
Particularly of interest is the state’s 8th District, which includes Fayetteville and the surrounding communities. Home to the largest military base in the United States, NC-8 best resembles the 2nd district in Arkansas. A mixture of urban, suburban, and rural - with a large Black population - this district has been represented in some form by Rep. Richard Hudson (R) since 2013. Hudson faces a competitive race from former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Pat Timmons-Goodson (D). In Congress, Hudson has been fairly anonymous and this is his first real race since 2012 when he defeated Rep. Larry Kissell (D). There has been an uptick in spending in this district in recent weeks and Timmons-Goodson has the ideal profile for a Democrat here. Both Cook and the Crystal Ball rate this district as ‘Leans Republican’ so Hudson is the favorite but not prohibitively so. This Fayetteville centric district is also a major battleground for control of the state legislature. This area will be worth watching on election night.
Thanks to court mandated redistricting, Democrats are all but certain to pick up two districts. The 2nd and 6th Congressional Districts were redistricted from Republican gerrymanders to solidly Democratic seats. The new 2nd District encompasses much of Wake County including all of Raleigh and its southern suburbs. The new 6th district includes both Winston-Salem and Greensboro. Reps. George Holding and Mark Walker (R) decided to retire rather than mount considerably uphill battles for these redrawn seats.
Although it has flown under the radar this year, the 9th district could very well be a sleeper race. Rep. Dan Bishop was elected in a highly contested special election in 2018. This time the race hasn’t drawn much attention but this seat, which stretches from the Charlotte suburbs to rural Robeson County, could be quite competitive. The Charlotte suburbs have rapidly trended Democratic in recent years and Bishop could lose in a wave election.
Out west is the state’s 11th District, which is surprisingly competitive. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows represented this district from 2011 until his resignation in March. This Appalachia district was redrawn to include all of solidly Democratic Asheville. Republican Madison Cawthorn upset the Trump and Meadows backed candidate in the primary, and later got a primetime speaking slot at this year’s Republican Convention. However, Cawthorn faces allegations of sexual harassment and recently removed racist language from his website. The Democratic nominee, Moe Davis is hardly without problems either. The former Chief Prosecutor at Guantanamo Bay, Davis has few connections to the district and tends to shoot his mouth off. This race between two flawed candidates has turned more expensive as both parties have invested here. Cawthorn has the edge if ever so slightly. It’s possible Davis could win but western North Carolina isn’t particularly friendly turf for Democrats anymore. It seems likely that former Rep. Health Shuler (D) is kicking himself for not running this year.
If Shuler had sought a comeback, it’s possible he might be favored to win back his old district. A former NFL quarterback, Shuler represented NC-11 from 2007-2013. He was a very popular congressman but retired in 2012 when Republicans gerrymandered the seat to remove Asheville from it. Alternatively, had she not run for Lt. Governor, State Senator Terry Van Duyn would have been a strong Democratic candidate for this district.
North Carolina is no stranger to competitive or expensive U.S. Senate races but this year breaks the record. It is the most expensive U.S. Senate race in American history. According to OpenSecrets.org, almost $300 million has been spent on the race. Freshman Senator Thom Tillis (R) served previously as Speaker of the North Carolina House. A Chamber of Commerce style establishment Republican, Tillis’s political style is a poor fit for Trump’s populist Republican party. In the Trump era, Tillis has been viewed skeptically by the party’s right flank and the diehard Trump supporters. His orthodox conservative policies do not neatly mesh with Trumpism and his strident conservatism has alienated the other half of the state. Tillis was narrowly elected to the Senate in 2014 when he defeated the late Senator Kay Hagan. Hagan, a longtime Democratic state legislator from Greensboro, was elected in the 2008 wave. Tillis heavily tied her to Obama, who was unpopular in the state at the time.
This year, Tillis is facing a very close race from Cal Cunningham. After originally running for Lt. Governor, Cunningham has run a low-key healthcare centric campaign and it appears that is what voters want. In early October, revelations of an affair Cunningham was having came to light and Republicans have seized on the issue. Though it’s lowered his favorability numbers, it hasn’t made a dent in the horse race numbers. Cunningham continues to lead by low single digits as he did pre-scandal. As long as Biden holds his lead here, it’s hard to see a path to victory for Thom Tillis.
North Carolina’s senior Senator Richard Burr has maintained a low profile during his tenure. A former Congressman from Winston-Salem, Burr was first elected to the Senate in 2004 and served as Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee from 2015 until May of this year. Burr stepped down as Chair following the announcement of a criminal investigation into an insider trading scandal. Burr is a low profile affable Senator known for his odd car and the fact that he does not wear socks. After five terms in the House and three terms in the Senate, Burr is planning to retire in 2022. There are a number of potential candidates on both sides, ranging from folks like Mark Meadows to Roy Cooper. It seems likely this race will be highly contested regardless of the winner of this year’s presidential election.
With all of its statewide offices elected in presidential years, North Carolina’s state politics are heavily influenced by the top of the ticket. Five statewide races were decided by less than 1% in 2016. With Joe Biden increasingly likely to win the state and Governor Cooper cruising to reelection, a downballot sweep seems more likely. North Carolina’s 10 statewide offices are part of what’s called the Council of State. Following the 2016 elections, Republicans hold a slim majority but that’s not likely to be the case after this year’s election.
First elected to the state legislature in the 1980’s, Governor Roy Cooper has been a staple of North Carolina politics for many years. Having served four terms as North Carolina’s Attorney General, Cooper ran for Governor in 2016 and narrowly defeated Governor McCrory. Cooper heavily focused his campaign on the blowback North Carolina received from House Bill 2. Colloquially known as the ‘Bathroom Bill’, HB2’s passage caused an immediate uproar. This bill not only barred transgender people from using the bathroom of their identified gender but also overturned an LGBT anti-discrimination ordinance passed by the Charlotte City Council. It also prevented cities from raising their minimum wage higher than the state’s minimum wage. This bill prompted severe backlash against the state of North Carolina. Sports tournaments, conventions, concerts, business events, etc. were all canceled. This had a tangible economic impact and North Carolina. Especially in a southern state, the evangelical wing of the Republican Party is quite powerful and they represent a major wing of the state party. This bill was met with widespread approval by them but found backlash elsewhere. Caught between a rock and a hard place, McCrory doubled down in his defense of the bill and it probably cost him reelection.
As Governor, Roy Cooper has largely been a sitting duck but one of his biggest achievements was negotiating a repeal of HB2. Was it a perfect bill that had everything Democrats wanted? No, but it fulfilled a campaign promise of Cooper’s. Having to deal with Republican supermajorities for most of his time as Governor, Cooper has been almost entirely unable to get his agenda passed. Despite the divided government, Cooper has maintained high approval ratings as Governor and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has earned him accolades. Cooper is a prohibitive favorite for reelection against the Lt. Governor Dan Forest. Forest - a staunch social conservative, is running a largely moribund campaign and struggling to drum up enthusiasm against an affable Governor. Cooper will glide to reelection and there is a great deal of discussion about his future. With an open U.S. Senate seat in 2022, Cooper could very well be a candidate for it, if Democrats flip the open Lt. Governor’s race this year. As one of the nation's weakest chief executives, the North Carolina Governor is hardly an enviable position to have, especially under divided government.
With Cooper’s possible coattails, Democrats have realistic chances at flipping at least one chamber of the North Carolina General Assembly. Combined with Democrats holding their majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, that would give them leverage in redistricting. One of Cooper’s key priorities has been to expand Medicaid and if Democrats do flip both chambers, that will be a big priority for the new Democratic majorities.
This is only the fourth election in which North Carolina is a swing state. Like Georgia, this is a state that George W. Bush had no trouble winning either time. Even with North Carolina Senator John Edwards in 2004, John Kerry still lost this state by double digits. Since then, millions of new voters have come to North Carolina, transforming the Tar Heel state from solid red to a sort of pinkish color. As a decidedly center-right state, North Carolina’s not quite purple but it is very competitive.
Since the Tar Heel lacks a true bellwether county let’s look at a few interesting ones.
Robeson County (Lumberton): This rural majority minority county in southeastern North Carolina is on paper an odd place to trend rightward. Home to the Lumbee tribe, this socially conservative county overwhelmingly backed Amendment 1 in 2012, which outlawed same-sex marriage in North Carolina. Robeson is a quirky little place. Once reliably Democratic, it’s made a strong trend rightward in recent years as Democrats become increasingly associated with social liberalism. This county flipped to Trump after voting for Obama twice. It’s not a must win for Trump but he really can’t afford a slippage in other rural areas.
New Hanover (Wilmington): This suburban county is one of the likeliest Trump/Biden counties in the country. As one of the more educated counties in North Carolina, there’s really not much going for Republicans here. This probably isn’t a must win for Trump but he will need to keep Biden’s margin down.
Gaston and Union: Bordering Mecklenburg county to the west and east are the GOP strongholds of Gaston and Union. These exurban counties are reliably Republican but the population boom in recent years might change the composition of the electorate a bit. It's evident that Trump and Republicans are feeling the heat in Gaston County as the President recently rallied in Gastonia. It's rather uncommon to see a GOP nominee for President rallying there days before the election. If Biden can hold Trump to below 60% of the vote in both of these counties, he's on his way to victory statewide.
With Biden recently gaining in the polls here, Democrats have been increasingly optimistic that the Tar Heel state will flip. Biden is likely to get previously unthinkable margins out of the two largest counties in the state – Wake and Mecklenburg, both of which voted for George W. Bush at least once. The state will be one to watch when the polls close at 7:30 Eastern Time on Tuesday. There are few paths to victory for Trump without North Carolina. Likewise, Democratic hopes of taking control of the Senate will take a significant hit if they can't flip the seat here.
Select a state on the map to read its 'The Road to 270' article.
This is Politico's final forecast for the 2020 general election.
The full Politico election forecast
Click or tap any of these maps for an interactive version.
November 2: Alaska moves from Likely to Leans Republican; Georgia from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Indiana from Safe to Likely Republican.
November 2: Georgia (regular) moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Virginia from Likely to Safe Democratic.
November 2: 17 changes (scroll to 'Latest rating changes')
November 2: New Hampshire moves from Leans to Likely Republican.
While over 300 of the 435 House seats are considered safe for the incumbent party, there is a subset that is especially solid: those with no major party opposition. This year, 27 seats fall into that category, down from 42 in 2018. 19 seats have no Republican candidate on the ballot, while eight have no Democratic candidate.
The list falls into three groups, which are listed below. In the tables, one Margin of Victory column reflects the 2018 House election, with the other column being the margin between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Asterisks in the House column mean the incumbent was unopposed in 2018.
Totally Unopposed: There are 11 incumbents that have the ballot all to themselves. Not on the list is GA-14, where the Democratic nominee has withdrawn, but remains on the ballot.
Same Party Opposition: California and Washington hold top-two primaries, where all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot. The two highest finishers go on to the general election. Eight districts - seven in California and one in Washington - advanced two Democrats. The ^ in Nanette Barragan's listing reflects that there was also an election with two Democrats in 2018.
3rd Party Opposition: The longest-tenured member on this list, Eliot Engel, was defeated by Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary. Bowman and the other seven incumbents have one or more opponents on the ballot, but all are 3rd party or independent candidates. None are expected to pose a major challenge.
While the 'unopposed' list is almost exclusively associated with House elections, an honorable mention goes to the Arkansas Senate race. Only one Democrat filed to run in the party's primary; he dropped out after the filing deadline. Republican Sen. Tom Cotton faces Libertarian Ricky Harrington, Jr. as he attempts to win a second term.
Inside Elections has updated its 2020 election outlook, making changes to its Electoral College forecast, as well as in a number of congressional races.
October 28 update and analysis (may require a subscription)
Maps of the current Inside Elections projections follow. Click or tap any of them for an interactive version.
October 28: Georgia and North Carolina move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic; Texas moves from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.
October 28: Alaska moves from Likely to Leans Republican; Georgia (regular) from Tilt Republican to Toss-up; Georgia (special) from Leans to Tilt Republican.
October 28: 23 Ratings Changes (too many to list here).
October 28: No changes.
Less than a week out from the presidential election, The Cook Political Report has moved Texas to Toss-up status. The Lone Star State hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1976 (Jimmy Carter) and hasn't elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994. However, recent elections have been increasingly competitive. Donald Trump's nine-point win in 2016 was the smallest GOP margin since 1996. In 2018, Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly won reelection, defeating Beto O'Rourke by about 2.6%.
The president currently holds a one-point lead in the 270toWin polling average, reflecting recent polls that have ranged from a Trump lead of five points to Biden being ahead by three.
Read the Cook analysis from Amy Walter
The updated Cook electoral map is below. Click or tap for an interactive version.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
The Peach State makes a surprising addition to the battleground list this year. A state last won by Democrats in 1992, the erosion of Republican support in the booming Atlanta metro area has shifted the state's politics. With two competitive U.S. Senate races on the ballot, the Peach State is getting uncommon attention this cycle. Powered by their surging support among college educated whites and the diversifying population of the Atlanta suburbs, Democrats are making a real push for Georgia this year. Let's look beneath the surface and figure out how Georgia got to where it is now.
This year, Georgia will be won and lost in the Atlanta metro area. Increasingly Georgia politics is dominated by the booming Atlanta metro area, much to the chagrin of Republicans. These diversifying suburbs have attracted expats from around the country and the growth shows no signs of slowing down. Using the state of Georgia's official definition of the Atlanta metro area, let's look at how it's voted since 2000. George W. Bush narrowly won that year with a little over one million votes cast. By 2016, Hillary Clinton carried it by 25 points and almost 1.8 million votes were cast.
Georgia has two U.S. Senate races on this year, and both are heavily contested. First let's look at the special election being held. As 2019 came to a close, longtime Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) retired due to declining health. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed businesswoman Kelly Loeffler, likely due to her ability to self-fund her campaign and on the premise that she could win back suburban voters. Now on the campaign trail, Loeffler has taken a somewhat unexpected turn. Facing a strong challenge on her right flank from Rep. Doug Collins, who had openly campaigned for the Senate appointment, Loeffler has veered to the right -- in a recent ad, she claimed to be more conservative than Attila the Hun.
The Loeffler campaign’s antics may have something to do with the election’s format. In Georgia, special elections are held under Louisiana-style jungle primary rules: if no candidate clears 50% in November -- which is likely, as there are about twenty -- the top two finishers will advance to a January runoff. With one runoff berth looking likely to go to a Democrat, Loeffler seems to be trying to out-right Collins for the other spot. As the incumbent, Loeffler also has the full support of the Senate GOP Conference.
An ardent conservative from northeast Georgia, Rep. Doug Collins is mounting an underdog bid against Loeffler. As ranking member on the House Judiciary Committee, Collins had a front row seat during impeachment but, prior to his Senate bid, he’d been a fairly low-profile congressman. Most polls have him getting squeezed out of a runoff but Democrats are certainly happy that he has dragged Loeffler to the right in a protracted battle, and he is still winning a large chunk of Republican voters. Many House colleagues are backing Collins and he has gotten considerable support from the Georgia political establishment, including the powerful state House Speaker David Ralston.
The main Democratic candidate is Raphael Warnock. As pastor of the church Martin Luther King Jr. attended, Warnock is one of the most interesting Senate candidates this cycle. While his campaign was slow to take off, a recent push by the party and an endorsement from former President Obama has paid dividends. His fundraising has seen a significant boost and he has surged to the top spot in polls. Recent polling from The New York Times showed Warnock taking 59% of the Black vote -- expect him to consolidate more of that vote as Election Day nears.
In the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election, freshman David Perdue (R) is facing an increasingly competitive race. From a political family -- his cousin is former Gov. Sonny Perdue, who currently serves as the Secretary of Agriculture -- Perdue was a wealthy businessman before he was elected to the Senate in 2014. Perdue finds himself in an interesting predicament for reelection. In a fast-growing state, a low-key Senator like Perdue isn’t all that well-known as many Georgia voters didn’t live in the state when he was first elected.
The Democratic nominee against Perdue is former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff. A documentary filmmaker and former congressional staffer, Ossoff nearly won a 2017 special election for the state’s 6th District, which at the time broke fundraising and spending records. With polls in the presidential race tightening, those in the Senate race have tightened as well. With the presence of a Libertarian on the ballot, this race may also go to a January runoff. -- so this race could go to a runoff, along with the special election. Regardless, the winner of the special election will be on the ballot again in 2022, when the current term is set to expire.
Aside from the presidential race, candidates in Georgia must be elected with a majority of the vote. As noted, at least one and perhaps both of these Senate races are headed for a top-two runoff in January. One of the big Democratic concerns around this prospect is turnout. Historically, Georgia Republicans have turned out more consistently in runoffs, giving them an advantage. However, the dynamic may be different this year depending on the circumstances. If Joe Biden is elected president and Democrats have secured a Senate majority, it is easy to see Democratic turnout falling. Conversely, should Donald Trump be reelected or Democrats fall short in their quest for control, turnout will be higher. Of course, the highest turnout - and spending - for both parties is likely to be around the very real possibility that the runoff(s) will actually determine who controls the Senate. The scheduled date for the runoff is January 5, 2021, two days after the new Senate is seated. Should either Democrat win that day, they will start at the bottom of the seniority list when seated.
While Jon Ossoff was unsuccessful in his bid for Georgia’s 6th District, Democrats ended up flipping it in 2018. Democrat Lucy McBath defeated Rep. Karen Handel in this Northern Atlanta suburban district. McBath, whose son Jordan was a victim of gun violence, was backed heavily by Mike Bloomberg. As the most educated congressional district in Georgia, GA-6 saw a considerable leftward swing from 2012-2016. Mitt Romney carried GA-6 by 23% in 2012 but Trump carried it by just 1.5%. Both the Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report rate GA-6 as ‘Likely Democratic.’ Karen Handel is seeking a rematch against McBath but this district is has trended too far away from Republicans. The area that was once represented by Newt Gingrich in the House is now firmly Democratic turf. Even if Rep. Tom Price hadn’t joined the Trump cabinet, he likely would have faced a real race in 2018 and would be a top Democratic target this year.
The other competitive congressional district in Georgia is the neighboring 7th District. This includes parts of diversifying Gwinnett County and also takes in much of Forsyth County, which is redder. After winning reelection by only a few hundred votes in 2018, Rep. Rob Woodall (R) is retiring and Democrats are favored to flip this seat. 2018 nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux is back and has the energy and money behind her to defeat Republican Rich McCormick. An E.R. doctor, McCormick has a good profile for this seat but his association with Trump will hurt in a district that Biden should carry comfortably.
There was perhaps no politician more beloved in Georgia than the late Rep. John Lewis. A key figure in the Civil Rights movement, Lewis was the soul of the House and widely respected across the aisle. A true legend, Lewis faced violence as a young man fighting for civil rights and grew into one of the most respected figures in American politics. The congressman from urban Atlanta, Lewis represented Georgia’s 5th District from 1987 until his death earlier this year. A stalwart progressive, Lewis nonetheless shared a close friendship with now-retired Sen. Johnny Isakson.
Lewis’ death triggered a special election in this solidly Democratic seat and the winner will serve in the lame duck session of Congress. State Senator and Chair of the Georgia Democratic Party Nikema Williams was chosen by the party to replace Lewis on the November general election ballot. She opted not to run in the special election and thus will be sworn in come January. Although the Republican candidate has raised quite a lot of money, this district gave Hillary Clinton 85% and thus is all but certain to remain in Democratic hands.
Republicans took control of the legislature in 2005 and the party has dominated state politics for the past 15 years. Democrats made inroads in 2018 but fell short of capturing any statewide offices. Democrats rely on a diverse coalition to win in Georgia and getting their core voters to the polls in midterm years remains an obstacle. In her unsuccessful bid for Governor in 2018, then state Rep. Stacey Abrams (D) improved upon Hillary Clinton’s showing in the suburbs but fell behind in many of the state’s rural counties. Turning out rural Black voters is essential to a Democratic victory in Georgia and that has proven difficult for Democrats in the post-Obama era.
In the legislature, Democrats gained in 2018, winning historically Republican seats in the suburbs of Atlanta. Democrats are largely playing offense again this cycle in the Georgia House but there is one district that needs to be monitored. House Minority Leader Bob Trammell is a rare white Democrat representing a rural seat in the Georgia House. As the only Democrat from a district that voted for now-Gov. Brian Kemp in 2018, Trammell is at the top of the GOP target list.
Democrats seem likely to make modest gains in both chambers of the Georgia legislature but outright winning either chamber will be a difficult task. Flipping at least one chamber would give Democrats a leg up in redistricting.
For much of its history, Georgia was part of the solid south. It voted exclusively Democratic after the Civil War through 1960. The state shifted to GOP nominee Barry Goldwater in 1964, despite his landslide loss nationwide. In 1968, it sided with George Wallace, running as a third party candidate. Since then, it has voted with the GOP except for when Democrats nominated a southerner. This included native son Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980. Without Carter on the ballot, Georgia swung 35 points towards Ronald Reagan in 1984 and would vote Democratic just once after that, for Bill Clinton in 1992. Still, gone are the days when Republican nominees would carry Georgia by double digits -- Georgia has been within single digits in the past three elections.
Though the trends are encouraging, Democrats still find it difficult to get over the top. Much of the focus has been on the populous Atlanta metro area, and there’s certainly good reason for that, but there are some other important areas to talk about. Key to Democratic success in Georgia is turning out rural Black voters who predominately reside in southwestern Georgia. Much of southwestern Georgia is in the state’s 2nd Congressional District. Represented by Democrat Sanford Bishop, this largely poor and rural district is home to a big chunk of the state’s African-American population and the home of former President Carter. A conservative Democrat, Bishop is a rare African-American Democrat who has substantial crossover appeal with white southern conservatives.
Part of the problem for Democrats is turning out rural Black voters but another part of the problem is significant population decline in that part of the state. A number of these small rural majority Black counties are losing population so Democrats have to look elsewhere for votes.
One overlooked area in the state is Savannah and its surrounding suburbs. The Savannah metro area doesn’t get the attention Atlanta does but it can potentially be another source of votes for Democrats. Chatham County is growing and has seen a similar leftward shift in recent years. Its suburbs have seen the same changes others have. Future Democratic campaigns would be wise to give Savannah and other cities outside Atlanta another look. Further north along the South Carolina border, Democrats have also seen some favorable shifts in the Augusta area.
Going back a moment to the Atlanta area, a key county to watch is the now solidly Democratic Gwinnett. Once the heart of the Georgia Republican Party, this suburban county has strongly trended leftward in the Trump era. Now Georgia’s second largest county, Trump must hold down Biden’s margin here if he hopes to win the Peach State again. Should Biden win Gwinnett with over 60% of the vote, it seems likely he’ll be winning statewide.
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Trump faces considerable headwinds in this rapidly Dem trending county. A poor performance by the President is likely to drag down the few remaining local Republican officeholders with him.
For the first time in a long time, Democrats have a real shot at carrying Georgia in a presidential election. The emergence of Democratic strength in the Atlanta metro area merits watching the state and all indications are that Georgia will be one of the closest states this year. The only question is if Georgia flips, will it be a Virginia or a North Carolina? Virginia was a Republican bastion for years until it wasn’t, and it hasn’t looked back. North Carolina on the other hand remains one of the nation’s most closely divided states.
