Election News

Shimkus is the 15th current House member to announce a 2020 retirement.  12 are Republicans, 3 Democrats.  The retirement map excludes Rep. Sean Duffy (R, WI-7) who said earlier this week that he will resign his seat on September 23.  

ABC News, in partnership with Univision is hosting the debate. While the DNC certified the eligible candidates, it is the network that determined the podium order. It said that position "was determined by polling averages, based on the last 10 polls certified for qualification by the DNC with the highest polling candidates near the center."  Based on this, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren take center stage, flanked by Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris.

Since only 10 candidates qualified, the debate will take place on a single night, September 12, from Houston. It will be a full 3 hours, beginning at 8:00 PM ET.

The 4th debate will take place in October, date and place TBA.  Qualifiers for this debate are automatically included in the October debate, while others still have time to make it.  Three candidates have met the 130,000 donor threshold, but are short one or more qualifying polls of 2% or more.   Those candidates are Tom Steyer (1 poll short of the 4 needed), Tulsi Gabbard (2) and Marianne Williamson (3).  If one or more of these make the October stage, that event will stretch out over two nights.

Today, I am ending my campaign for president.

I am so proud of this team and all we've accomplished. But I think it’s important to know how you can best serve.

To our supporters: Thank you, from the bottom of my heart. Now, let's go beat Donald Trump and win back the Senate. pic.twitter.com/xM5NGfgFGT

— Kirsten Gillibrand (@SenGillibrand) August 28, 2019

Reeves was the most well-known and financed candidate heading into the August 6 three-way primary. He received the endorsement of the current governor, Phil Bryant, who is ineligible to run due to the state's two-term limit.

While he won the night, Reeves fell just short of a majority of the vote, necessitating Tuesday's top-two runoff.  The third place finisher, state Rep. Robert Foster has endorsed Waller.

Duffy was preceded in Congress by Democrat Dave Obey, who served over 40 years before retiring in 2010. Duffy won that year by 8 points over Democrat Julie Lassa. The district was made more Republican in 2011 post-Census redistricting, leading to fairly easy reelection races for the incumbent. He won his final term by about 22% in 2018, about the same winning margin as President Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.  

Wisconsin's Democratic Gov. Tony Evers will call a special election to fill the upcoming vacancy. 

Walsh is hoping a challenge from the right will appeal to both conservatives and the 'Never Trump' movement. However, he brings his own baggage to the race, which might make it difficult for him to credibly make the case to those looking for an alternativ. He has espoused birtherism and anti-Muslim rhetoric, as well as hate for his political opponents. He did express regret for those statements in a recent New York Times op-ed.

Walsh joins former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld in the primary; both face exceptionally steep odds in their quest for the GOP nomination. For his part, Weld said he welcomes others, telling Chuck Todd on Meet the Press that "we need to assemble rational people".

Inslee's campaign was largely focused around the issue of climate change. However, he was unable to gain much traction in a crowded Democratic field and was not going to qualify for the upcoming September debate.

Inslee is in his 2nd term as governor of Washington. The state is in the minority in that it does not impose any term limits on its chief executive, allowing him to run again in 2020 if he so chooses. 

Comparing these results to the prior CNN poll - taken just after the first debate - shows that the bump Harris received from her performance has evaporated, with Biden regaining much of the share he lost. The support for Warren and Sanders is essentially unchanged.

September Debate

The CNN poll brought good news for Julian Castro, making him the 10th qualifier for the next Democratic debate. That will be held September 12th and 13th in Houston, broadcast by ABC and Univision.

To make the September stage, candidates must get at least 2% in four qualifying polls and have received a donation from a minimum of 130,000 unique donors. The deadline for qualifying is August 28, with a couple additions still possible. Tom Steyer is one poll short, while Tulsi Gabbard needs two more. Both have met the fundraising requirement.  No other candidate seems likely to make the cut.