Election News

New Feature: Candidate Delegate Maps; % Remaining Delegates Needed

March 18, 2016

A new set of maps lets you see how each of the remaining candidates has performed in primary and caucus contests, including order of finish and delegates won. For events still to come, the total delegates are shown. 

Republican Candidate Delegate Maps     Democratic Candidate Delegate Maps

Delegate counts are from the New York Times and are subject to change, particularly for recent events. For example, only a portion of Missouri delegates have been awarded thus far. The maps will update as we get more information.

The active candidate's map is highlighted in green; click/tap to change to another candidate. This area also shows a summary of total delegates won by each candidate, and the percentage of remaining delegates needed to clinch the party's nomination. A value >100% means a candidate cannot* clinch the nomination prior to the party convention.

The Republican map, with Trump active, is shown below.

 

* Barring some unforseen circumstance. On the Democratic side, this assumes superdelegates remain with the candidate they have committed to support.



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What Happens To Rubio's Delegates?

March 17, 2016

Marco Rubio had won 169 delegates when he suspended his campaign earlier this week; other candidates had won 15*. The disposition of these delegates may end up being important if no candidate reaches the required 1,237 to win the Republican nomination. 

As with most delegate-related issues, it turns out the answer varies by state. We found this very helpful infographic in today's Wall Street Journal that lays it out nicely. (The graphic is on page A4 of the paper; we haven't been able to find it online except in the WSJ ereader ). 

The graphic displays the four methods for what happens to these 184 delegates through the first round at the convention. Those are listed below, along with a couple notes.

  • Delegates are bound to the candidate (39 of the 184): Iowa is one of the states with this method; all but five of the non-Rubio delegates are in this category.
  • Candidate can keep or release delegates (42): Rubio controls 40 of these; Carson two. Carson has endorsed Donald Trump.
  • Delegates become free agents (98): If you're one of these people, you'll likely be hearing from the campaigns.
  • Delegates get re-allocated proportionately (5): Alaska only; depending on exact rounding rules, either Trump or Cruz will get three of these, with the other getting two. Kasich finished below the 13% threshold to qualify. Update: Trump was allocated 3, Cruz 2. Update 2: Rubio's request for the return of these five delegates was granted.

For more coverage of the campaign from The Wall Street Journal, visit their online politics section.

*Carson 8; Bush 4; Fiorina, Huckabee, Paul 1 each


Delegate Update: Trump Needs 53%, Clinton 34% of Remaining Delegates

March 16, 2016

Here are the latest delegate counts including the (still partial) results of last night's primaries. The table also includes the percentage of the remaining delegates each candidate needs to secure his or her party's nomination.

 

Thanks to superdelegates, Hillary Clinton only needs about 34% of the remaining 2,322 delegates (which includes 219 uncommitted superdelegates). The math does not favor Bernie Senators. He will need some of those previously committed superdelegates to change their mind for him to have much of a shot at the nomination. These superdelegates will feel little pressure to do so until and unless the Vermont Senator goes on an extended winning streak. 

On the Republican side, in the absence of it changing to a two-man race, it would appear that Donald Trump is the only candidate that can realistically reach 1,237 delegates before the Cleveland convention. Trump needs about 53% of the remaining 1,079 delegates.

The election calendar gets quieter for the next couple weeks. The main event next Tuesday will be the Arizona primary. Trump and Clinton lead in relatively limited polling.


Trump, Clinton Expand Delegate Lead; Rubio Ends Campaign While Kasich Stays Alive

March 16, 2016

Highlights from the March 15 primaries:

  • Trump expanded his delegate lead by easily winning Florida and its 99 winner take all delegates
  • After a distant 2nd in Florida, Rubio suspended his campaign
  • Kasich salvaged his campaign by winning Ohio and its 66 winner take all delegates
  • North Carolina (Republican) was closer than expected, Trump and Cruz will split most of the delegates in this proportional state
  • Clinton won at least four of five states; including a larger-than-expected win in Ohio
  • No AP calls in Missouri as of this writing; Trump and Clinton lead by just 0.2%.
  • Trump, with at least 621 delegates, is now >50% to the 1,237 needed to secure the Republican nomination
  • Clinton, with at least 1,561 delegates is now about 2/3 of the way to the 2,383 needed for the Democratic nomination


Republican Delegate Calculator for March 15 Primaries

March 15, 2016

For our review of today's events (both parties), including a recap of polling and a little more on delegate allocations, visit our March 15 primary polling update.

For anyone interested, we've created a spreadsheet that lets you allocate delegates in today's five Republican primaries, four of which are among the 10 states with the most delegates. Use it to make your own projections and see the proportion of remaining delegates each candidate will need after today, based on that forecast. 

The current values include Donald Trump's 9 delegates from today's caucus in the Northern Mariana Islands. Not all sources agree on delegate counts, so if yours are different, just change the 'Current' field.

 

Get the spreadsheet here


Polling Update for March 15 Primaries

March 14, 2016

Tuesday is shaping up as a key day in the 2016 presidential race. Five states, including four of the top ten delegate prizes in each party, will be voting. On the Republican side, the date marks the first date when states have the option for winner take all allocation of delegates. 

Where We Stand

Trump has 460 delegates, 37% of the 1,237 needed to secure the Republican nomination. This weekend saw Rubio, Cruz and Kasich earn about 10 delegates each, while Trump netted only one. Trump leads by 90 over Cruz heading into Tuesday, where approximately 360 delegates are up for grabs in the five states (plus nine in Northern Mariana Islands Convention)

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has won about 58% of the delegates in contests thus far, but holds a commanding lead when committed superdelegates are included. Assuming she holds those superdelegates (they can change their mind), she now has more than 50% of the 2,383 needed for the nomination. Around 790 delegates (including superdelegates) are associated with Tuesday's events.

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, including a discussion of the delegate allocation procedure as we understand it. The poll closing times are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. Click/tap a state for more details.  

Republican

 

Florida The big prize on March 15 with 99 winner take all delegates. There has been a lot of polling over the past week, and Trump leads it all, but there's an interesting stratification here. Some of the polls show a competitive battle, with Rubio about 7 points back. The others show an easy Trump win of 20 points, with Rubio and Cruz fighting it out for 2nd. There's not a lot in-between. (The most recent polls have gone in the Trump 20+ direction). Florida is a must-win state for Rubio. Polls in most of the state close at 7PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump as the non-Trump vote will be divided between Cruz and Rubio. Trump is well-positioned to win and gain 99 delegates.)

North Carolina The state proportionately allocates its 72 delegates based on the statewide result. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 12 points over Cruz. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. Although well back, Kasich seems to have caught Rubio for 3rd. (Projection: Likely Trump. If the polls are pretty accurate, delagate allocation would be roughly Trump 30, Cruz 20, Kasich and Rubio both 11.)

Illinois The state has 69 delegates. 15 of these will go to the statewide popular vote winner. The remaining 54 delegates are directly elected, 3 per Congressional District. There has been a surge of polling in recent days, most showing Trump with about a 10 point lead over Cruz. However, a poll out Sunday from CBS & YouGov gives Trump only a 4 point edge. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump for the 15 statewide delegates. No idea what to expect for the remainder).

Ohio This race, with 66 winner take all delegates, could go either way. As of Monday morning, Kasich had a one point lead, on average, over Trump. For the overall race for the nomination, this may be the most important battle of the night, particularly if Trump wins Florida. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. (Projection: Toss-up; either Trump or Kasich will win and gain 66 delegates).

Missouri While outside the top 10 in total delegates, the state still has a significant number at 52. If a candidate exceeds 50%, he receives all 52 of the delegates. Otherwise, the candidate with the most statewide votes gets 12 delegates, with the remaining 40 allocated, in groups of five, to the winner of each of the state's eight Congressional Districts. There has been little polling here; a small sample survey the other day gave Trump a 7 point lead over Cruz with Rubio and Kasich well back. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Nobody gets 50% statewide; Trump or Cruz will win the 12 statewide delegates.)

Democrat

All Democratic contests allocate delegates (except superdelegates) on a roughly proportional basis, some based on the statewide result, some based on results in individual Congressional Districts. For poll closing times, see the section above.

Florida, where Clinton is averaging a 60-33 lead over Sanders and North Carolina, where the Clinton average lead is 55-34, are expected to be easy Clinton wins. Florida has 246 delegates, North Carolina 121.

The other three states have open primaries and could be much more competitive. A Public Policy Polling series out Sunday showed that independents and Republicans that are planning to vote in the Democratic primary overwhelmingly favor Sanders. Therefore, the proportion of these voters that show up vs. registered Democrats, could prove decisive in each state. 

Illinois Overall, Clinton has a 17 point lead, on average. However, the most recent polls all show a Clinton lead of 6 points or less. Perhaps the race has narrowed, or perhaps the pollster assumptions on voter mix is evolving. It's possible that the recent Sanders upset in nearby Michigan, where Clinton's poll lead was 20+, is weighing on the pros here, and in the other two Midwestern states. We'll find out tomorrow. The state has 182 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.

Ohio Recent polls have given Clinton a lead of anywhere from five to 20 points; likely seeing the same issues as in Illinois. Ohio has 160 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.

Missouri Very limited polling here; this weekend's Public Policy survey showed a dead heat. 84 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.


Midwestern Democratic Primaries Could Go Either Way Tuesday, New Poll Series Finds

March 13, 2016

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are closely matched in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri, a new poll series from Public Policy Polling finds. These three states, along with Florida and North Carolina, hold their Democratic primaries on Tuesday. Clinton should easily win the latter two states.

The three competitive states are all open primary states. The poll found that Sanders is benefiting from the support of independents and Republicans planning to vote with the Democratic ballot. Sanders leads by 30-40 points in those groups, while Clinton leads by about 20 among Democrats. Overall, the poll found Clinton with a 5 point lead in Ohio and a 3 point lead in Illinois, with Sanders up by 1 in Missouri.

 

If these metrics are accurate, than the mix of voters (D vs. I vs. R) that actually cast their ballots will be crucial to determining whether Senator Senators can pull the upset in any or all of these states. Other recent polls in Ohio and Illinois have not seen the same thing. Looking at the 270toWin Polling Averages, Clinton leads by about 17 in Illinois, and 15 in Ohio. The PPP poll in Missouri is the first one with a significant sample size, so not much to go on there.


New Polls Find Kasich with Small Lead in Ohio; Clinton/Sanders Competitve in Illinois

March 13, 2016

A series of polls from NBC News, The Wall Street Journal and Marist provided mostly positive news for for frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton heading into Tuesday's primaries in Florida, Ohio & Illinois. There was also some good news for Ohio governor John Kasich as he holds a small lead in that state's crucial winner take all vote. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is polling just behind Clinton. 


Finally, a Missouri Poll! Trump, Clinton Each Lead by 7

March 11, 2016

The good news is we finally have a current Missouri poll. The bad news is that the sample size is quite small and so caution should be used in relying too heavily on the results.

Republican: The poll found Donald Trump at 36% with Ted Cruz seven points back at 29%. Marco Rubio and John Kasich are non-factors, at below 10%. With a margin of error of 7%, it would be prudent to say that either Trump or Cruz could win. This is consistent with what we noted earlier in our discussion of the March 15 Republican primaries. That narrative also included information on how Missouri allocates its 52 delegates.

 

Democrat: The poll also found a competitive race between Clinton and Sanders; Clinton with a 47-40 lead. The sample size is even smaller here, however, and sports an 8% margin of error. 


Polling Update for March 15: 4 of Top 10 Republican Delegate Prizes; Some Winner Take All

March 11, 2016

Tuesday, March 15 is shaping up as a pivotal day in the Republican nomination fight. Five states, including four of the top ten delegate prizes, will be voting. Additionally, the date marks the first date when states have the option for winner take all allocation of delegates. In all, these states will put 358 delegates into play.

As of now, Donald Trump leads the Republican field with 458 delegates, about 100 ahead of Ted Cruz.  Trump has about 37% of the 1,237 needed to nominate.

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, including a discussion of the delegate allocation procedure, as we understand it. The poll closing times are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. Click/tap a state for more details.  

Florida The big prize on March 15 with 99 winner take all delegates. There has been a lot of polling this week, and Trump leads it all, but there's an interesting stratification here.  About half the polls show a competitive battle, with Rubio about 7 points back. The other half show an easy Trump win of 15-20 points, with Marco Rubio only a few points ahead of Cruz. There's not a lot in-between. Florida is a must-win state for Rubio. Polls in most of the state close at 7PM ET.  (Projection: Likely Trump; either Trump or Rubio will win and gain 99 delegates).

North Carolina The state proportionately allocates its 72 delegates based on the statewide result. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 10 points over Cruz. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump. If we assume the poll averages are the outcome, and that only these four candidates get delegates, allocation would be roughly 30 Trump, 20 Cruz, 13 Rubio, 9 Kasich).

Illinois The state has 69 delegates. 15 of these will go to the statewide popular vote winner. The remaining 54 delegates are directly elected, 3 per Congressional District. There has been limited polling here; a Chicago Tribune survey earlier in the week gave Trump 32%, with Rubio, Cruz and Kasich all near 20%. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 10 points over Cruz. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump for the 15 statewide delegates. No idea what to expect for the remainder).

Ohio This race, with 66 winner take all delegates, has tightened in recent weeks. Trump is currently leading by an average of 2.5 points over the state's governor, John Kasich. For the overall race for the nomination, this may be the most important battle of the night, particularly if Trump wins Florida. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. (Projection: Toss-up; either Trump or Kasich will win and gain 66 delegates).

Missouri While outside the top 10, the state still has a significant 52 delegates. If a candidate exceeds 50%, he receives all 52 of the delegates. Otherwise, the candidate with the most statewide votes gets 12 delegates, with the remaining 40 allocated, in groups of five, to the winner of each of the state's eight Congressional Districts. There has been no recent polling here; a late 2015 survey gave Trump a 10 point lead over Cruz. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Nobody gets 50% statewide; Trump or Cruz probably the best bet for the 12 statewide delegates).



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