By 270toWin Staff - September 19, 2022, 9:53 AM ET
Today marks 50 days until the November 8 midterm elections. To mark the occasion - although the timing is really just a coincidence - we've launched the 2022 House Simulator.
Run as many simulated elections as you'd like for the 435 U.S. House seats up this year. The results of a simulation can be displayed randomly, or in order of poll closing times. A table below the map will track your simulations until the browser tab is closed.
Democrats narrowly control the chamber, with a 221-212 edge over Republicans. Assigning the two vacancies (FL-13 and IN-02) to the prior incumbent party gives us a 222-213 count at full strength. Republicans will need to gain five seats in November to take back the Speaker's gavel.
By 270toWin Staff - September 15, 2022, 1:38 PM ET
Updated to remove PA-15 Republican Glenn Thompson from the 'Totally Unopposed' List. Numbers have been updated in the article, as applicable.
As this year's primaries (view results by state) draw to a close, we count 35 U.S. House races where only one of the two major parties will be on the ballot. 23 of these are held by Republicans, 12 by Democrats.
16 incumbents have no opponent. In 13 other districts, opposition is from a 3rd party or independent candidate. Finally, in six California districts, Democrats won both positions in the top-two primary.
By 270toWin Staff - September 13, 2022, 1:08 PM ET
The primary calendar wraps up this Tuesday with contests in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Up next is the general election on November 8.
In terms of primaries of interest this week, most of the action is on the GOP side in New Hampshire. Contests for U.S. Senate and both U.S. House seats, all currently held by Democrats, feature proxy battles between establishment and Trump-aligned wings of the party.
In Rhode Island, the Democratic governor is in a closely-contested primary, while the party will also choose a nominee to replace a retiring member in House District 2.
By 270toWin Staff - September 13, 2022, 8:50 AM ET
Vacancies in the U.S. House will drop from five to two on Tuesday, as three recent special election winners are sworn in. Democrats gained a seat in those elections bringing he partisan composition of the chamber to 221 Democrats and 212 Republicans.
The Democratic gain was in Alaska, where Mary Peltola will complete the term of the late Republican Don Young. Peltola is on the general election ballot, in what will be a special election rematch against Republicans Sarah Palin and Joe Begich.
In New York, Democrat Pat Ryan (NY-19) and Republican Joe Sempolinski will replace incumbents that resigned. Due to redistricting shifts, Ryan will run in neighboring NY-18 in November. Sempolinski did not run for a full term, and has been added to the list of retiring House members.
By 270toWin Staff - September 6, 2022, 12:19 PM ET
The 2022 primary calendar is winding down with four East Coast states. This Tuesday is Massachusetts, with Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island all following in one week.
Louisiana will hold its version of primaries on November 8, the same day as the general election in the other 49 states. In the Pelican State, all candidates appear on a single ballot. If one gets a majority of the vote, he or she is elected. Otherwise, the top two advance to a December 10 runoff.
Voters will choose nominees for Governor, U.S. House, and State Legislature. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
By 270toWin Staff - September 5, 2022, 10:39 AM ET
Try out the new 2022 Senate Simulator. Run as many simulated elections as you'd like for the 35 Senate seats up this year. The results of a simulation can be displayed randomly, or in order of poll closing times. A table below the map will track your simulations until the browser tab is closed.
The Senate is evenly split at 50-50. Democrats control the chamber since Vice-President Kamala Harris can break tie votes. Republicans need to gain one seat to take back the majority.
There are still a wide range of possible outcomes for the election. Any individual simulation is plausible, although no one result is particularly likely. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon, including the results on our Senate Battle for Control page. That page also includes daily results by state and links to each state's trend over time.
On Wednesday, Alaskans will find out who will represent them in the U.S. House through the end of the year. The state's single at-large district has been vacant since March, when GOP Rep. Don Young died. Young had held the seat since 1973.
As no candidate received a majority of the first-choice vote in the August 16 election, the winner will be determined via ranked choice voting. Ballots mailed from overseas, postmarked by Election Day, could arrive up to 15 days later and still be counted. This is why the process was not completed prior to August 31.
The Alaska Division of Elections will run the ranked choice voting tabulation in the 8:00 PM Eastern Time hour. Access the live stream here.
Tuesday is the last big day on the 2022 primary calendar, as voters in Florida and New York head to the polls. Those two states combine for 54 congressional districts, about 1/8 of the U.S. House.
There are also primary runoffs in Oklahoma and special elections to fill two congressional vacancies in New York.
Results for some of the more interesting elections are on this page. Use the links below to see all results. Latest poll closing (Eastern Time) appears below the state name. If you are voting in one of these locations, check with your polling place as the hours may differ.