Butterfield will be the third long-time Democratic member of Congress to announce their retirement this week. On Monday, it was Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy; yesterday's decision came from California Rep. Jackie Speier.
Butterfield's district became less favorable in the recently completed redistricting process. In its current configuration, his district voted for Joe Biden by 9 points in 2020. Under the revised lines, which will be used for the 2022 midterm elections, Biden's margin was only three points.
By 270toWin Staff - November 16, 2021, 10:34 AM ET
Democratic Rep. Jackie Speier (CA-14) won't seek a ninth term in 2022, she announced Tuesday. She becomes the 14th current House Democrat to announce they are retiring or seeking another office. Ten Republicans have made that decision, as well.
The Bay Area 14th district is safely Democratic; Speier won a final term in 2020 by nearly 60 points. While the boundaries of the district will likely change a bit after redistricting, there is very little chance of it becoming a competitive seat next year.
Speier had a long career in politics before being elected to Congress in 2008. It was born out of tragedy. In 1978, she was an aide to Rep. Leo Ryan (D), and was among those who accompanied him on a fact-finding mission to Jonestown in Guyana, where the San Francisco-based People's Temple had established a settlement. Ryan was assassinated on that trip, and Speier survived five gunshot wounds. Days later, over 900 members of the cult perished in a mass murder/suicide.
Speier unsuccessfully ran for Ryan's seat in 1979. She won her first election, to the California State Assembly, in 1986.
On Second Thought...
Separately, despite saying in 2019 that she would only serve one more term, Texas Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson may be planning to run again after all. She has scheduled a press conference for this Saturday. Notably, the phrase "RE-ELECT Johnson" is included in the announcement. The 85-year old represents the safely Democratic Dallas-area 30th district.
By 270toWin Staff - November 15, 2021, 10:34 AM ET
Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont said Monday that he will not seek a 9th term in 2022. First elected in 1974, Leahy has the most seniority of any currently serving Senator.
Leahy is chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and serves on the Judiciary and Agriculture Committees. He is president pro tem of the Senate (most senior member of majority party), placing him third in line for presidential succession.
The next most senior Senator is Republican Chuck Grassley of Iowa, who was first elected in 1980. He said earlier this year that he will seek an 8th term next year.
Despite being solidly Democratic today, Vermont was formerly a reliably Republican state, voting for the GOP in every presidential election but one from 1856 through 1988. One legacy of that: Leahy is the only Democrat ever elected to the U.S. Senate from Vermont. The state's other Senator, Bernie Sanders, caucuses with the Democrats, but is an independent.
By 270toWin Staff - November 15, 2021, 10:03 AM ET
Democrat Beto O'Rourke announced Monday that he is running for Texas Governor. He becomes the first notable challenger to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a third term. The New York Times notes that "the arrival of Mr. O’Rourke immediately set the stage for a pitched political showdown next November over the future of Texas at a time when the state — with its expanding cities and diversifying population — has appeared increasingly up for grabs."
I’m running for governor.
Together, we can push past the small and divisive politics that we see in Texas today — and get back to the big, bold vision that used to define Texas. A Texas big enough for all of us.
O'Rourke is a former congressman, who represented an El Paso-area district for three terms after being elected in 2012. In 2018, he challenged Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in a race that significantly raised his national profile. Cruz prevailed by about 2.5%. O'Rourke announced a run for the 2020 Democratic nomination in March 2019. However, he suspended the campaign prior to the first 2020 primaries.
No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. The last Democratic Governor was Ann Richards, who served one term after being elected in 1990.
By 270toWin Staff - November 13, 2021, 10:33 AM ET
Rescheduled from October 9 due to the aftereffects of Hurricane Ida, Louisiana holds its fall elections on Saturday. In terms of races we follow, this includes elections for three vacancies in the state legislature and for mayor of New Orleans.
Louisiana has a hybrid system, with no primaries prior to Election Day. All candidates from all parties compete on a single ballot. if one candidate gets a majority, they are elected. Otherwise, the top two finishers advance to a runoff. This year's runoffs will be on Saturday, December 11.
Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
State Legislature Special Elections
Senate District 27
There are 39 State Senate districts in Louisiana. Republicans hold a large 26-12 majority. Senators serve four-year terms; the next regularly scheduled election is in 2023.
Located in the southwestern part of the state, District 27 includes Lake Charles. The former incumbent, Republican Ronnie Johns, resigned in July after being appointed chair of the Louisiana State Gaming Control Board.
There 105 House districts in Louisiana. Currently, Republicans hold 68 of the seats to 32 for Democrats. There are three independents and two vacancies that will be filled by the winners of these special elections. Representatives serve four-year terms; the next regularly scheduled election is in 2023.
Both these districts are heavily Democratic; no Republicans are competing.
District 16: The seat in this Monroe-area district has been vacant since July, when Frederic Jones resigned after being elected to Judicial Court. Jones was in his first term. Three Democrats are on the ballot.
District 102: Gary Carter Jr. resigned from this New Orleans-area district in June after being elected to the State Senate. Carter was in his second term. Two Democrats are on the ballot.
New Orleans Mayor
New Orleans is the 53rd largest city in the United States,11City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of just under 385,000. The mayor is Democrat LaToya Cantrell, who is seeking a second four-year term. She is the first woman to hold the position in the city's history.
Although she has attracted 13 challengers, Cantrell is expected to win a second term.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska announced Friday that she will seek a 5th term in the Senate next year. Alaska's new election system may help her chances, despite the vocal opposition of former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed one of her challengers.
Murkowski, who called for Trump to resign shortly after the January 6 Capitol riot, was one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict him at the subsequent impeachment trial. Trump has vowed to campaign against Murkowski, and in June he endorsed Kelly Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration.
The incumbent should benefit from a change to the Alaska election system, as it eliminates a head-to-head primary battle with Tshibaka. Under the revised rules, implemented after the narrow passage of a voter referendum in 2020, all candidates from all parties will compete on a single ballot in the August 16, 2022 primary. The top four finishers, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. The general election itself will be conducted via ranked choice voting.
Monday is exactly one year - 365 days - from the 2022 midterm elections.
Senate: The chamber is tied 50-50, giving Democrats control with VP Kamala Harris breaking any ties. 34 seats are up in 2022, of which 20 are held by Republicans. However, neither party has an edge when looking at the most competitive seats. Each party holds four of the eight seats currently seen as the most competitive. 2022 Senate Interactive Map >>
House: After last week's two Ohio special elections - split by the parties as expected - there is only one vacancy in the House. That is in FL-20, where a special election will be held in January. Democrats currently hold a narrow 221-213 edge. Current House Map >>
Redistricting is underway, and almost all of the 435 congressional districts will be contested with new boundaries next year. We are working on an interactive 2022 map that will launch with those states that have completed their redistricting, adding others as they become available.
Governor: Republican Glenn Youngkin flipped Virginia last week, while Democrat Phil Murphy was reelected in New Jersey. When Youngkin is sworn in on January 15, the GOP will control 28 of the 50 governorships. 36 states will hold a gubernatorial election next year. 2022 Governor Interactive Map >>
Republicans have now won 50 seats in Virginia's House of Delegates. Three Democratic-held seats remain uncalled as of Wednesday afternoon, with Republicans ahead in two of them.
A GOP victory in any of these three will give it control for the next term.
D + 1.2%
R + 0.7%
R + 1.0%
In 2019, Democrats took control of the House for the first in over 20 years, winning 55 seats. Republicans have held all 45 of the districts they won that year and flipped five Democratic-held districts (12, 28, 63, 75 and 83). Democrats have won 47 seats thus far.
Governor: Heading into Election Day, Phil Murphy seemed well-positioned to become the first Democrat reelected as governor here since 1977. That may still happen, but the race is much tighter than expected. As of this writing, Murphy and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are separated by fewer than 2,000 votes out of almost 2.4 million counted.
NJ State Legislature: A significant number of races remain uncalled. However, Democrats started the day with significant majorities in both branches and will likely remain in control as the remaining votes are counted. NJ Legislature Live Results >>
House of Delegates: Democrats took control of the lower house of the Virginia Legislature in 2019 winning 55 of the 100 seats that year. As of this morning, Republicans have held all 45 of the districts they won in 2019 and flipped four Democratic-held districts (12, 63, 75 and 83). Democrats have won 46 seats.
Five Democratic-held districts remain uncalled. Republicans must win two of them to win a majority. The table below shows the party leading as of about 8:30 AM ET Wednesday morning. See the live results below the table for the latest.
The only other House vacancy is in Florida's 20th district, where there is an extremely tight race for the Democratic nomination. Earning the nomination is tantamount to winning the general election in this deep blue seat formerly held by the late Alcee Hastings.
As of this morning, just 12 votes separate Broward Count Commissioner Dale Holness and businesswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick.
Eric Adams (D) was elected mayor of New York City. Further upstate, Buffalo mayor Byron Brown, who lost in the Democratic primary, appears to have won via a successful write-in campaign. However, we won't know for sure until the write-ins are processed. This may be a couple weeks.
Michelle Wu is the first woman elected mayor of Boston. Republican Francis Suarez won reelection by a landslide in Miami. Bruce Harrell looks like he is going to be Seattle's next mayor, although the race hasn't been officially called yet. Jacob Frey is leading in Minneapolis, but the winner will be determined via a ranked choice process. In Atlanta, Felicia Moore will advance to a runoff. Former mayor Kasim Reed narrowly trails Andre Dickens for the second spot.
There are races for elected statewide offices and for the House of Delegates, the Virginia State House. By winning the governorship or taking control of the House of Delegates, Republicans can break the Democratic state government trifecta. The Virginia State Senate will next be contested in 2023.
Polls close at 7:00 PM ET.
Virginia is the only state not allowing governors to serve consecutive terms. Democrat Terry McAuliffe is looking to reclaim the office he held from 2014-2018. Businessman Glenn Youngkin is the Republican nominee.
This will be the most closely-watched race in the country Tuesday. Whether or not it is actually the case, the outcome will be seen by many as a litmus test for Democratic prospects in 2022. If Youngkin prevails, it would mark a sharp reversal from Joe Biden's 10-point win here just last November. Additionally, Republicans have not won a statewide race in Virginia since 2009.
Also working against McAuliffe is history: In modern times, aside from 2013, the party controlling the White House has lost the Virginia governorship. There is also a third party candidate, Princess Blanding, campaigning on racial justice. While she's not likely to see more than 1-2% support, those votes are more likely to come from those who might otherwise have supported McAuliffe.
Unlike the top job, the lieutenant governor can seek reelection. However, incumbent Justin Fairfax (D) unsuccessfully ran for governor. The Democratic nominee is Delegate Hala Ayala, while the Republican nominee is former Delegate Winsome Sears. The winner will be the first woman to serve as lieutenant governor of Virginia.
In an era where ticket splitting has become increasingly rare, the results here will likely track fairly closely to those of the governor's race. However, in a very close election, as both these are shaping up to be, a small difference could lead to a split result. The last time this happened in Virginia was in 2005, when now Sen. Tim Kaine (D) was elected governor, while voters chose Bill Bolling (R) as lieutenant.
Incumbent Democratic Mark Herring (D) is seeking a third termagainst Republican Delegate Jason Miyares. In 2017, Herring was reelected with 53% of the vote, closely mirroring the 54% received by Democrat Ralph Northam at the top of the ticket.
Perhaps owing to incumbency, Herring has generally seen modestly higher support in polls that sample all three of these statewide races. (See, for example, this Suffolk University poll). However, this race has also tightened in recent weeks and could go either way.
House of Delegates
Democrats took control of the Virginia House of Delegates in the 2019 elections for the first time in over 20 years. The party holds a 55-45 edge. Republicans need to gain six seats to take back control. A gain of five would result in an evenly split House.
Chaz Nuttycombe, founder of CNalysis, a site that forecasts state legislative elections, rates the battle for control a toss-up. From his final forecast: "We have Republicans as the slight favorites to earn a net gain of 7 seats in the House of Delegates. That being said, many of these were tough calls, and that figure could reasonably be smaller than expected. Regardless, a GOP net gain is expected."
In terms of what to keep an eye on, Nuttycombe sees the 13 districts listed below as the most competitive. The seven in the first row are Democratic-held seats slightly favored to flip.
10, 12, 28, 73, 75, 83, 85
21, 40 ,68
Select 'Change Race' to see live results for a specific district.