Update: Virginia Congressional District 5 Republican Primary

The Republican primary in Virginia's 5th congressional district remains uncalled as of Friday morning. 

Counting wrapped up on Tuesday's primary night with John McGuire holding a 327 vote margin over Rep. Bob Good. This total included the preliminary vote count from all precincts, but some mail-in and provisional ballots remained outstanding. Valid mailed ballots that arrive as late as noon Friday will be counted. 

McGuire claimed victory, but media outlets have said the race remains too close to call.

At publication time, McGuire's lead had shrunk slightly to 312 votes. As more results come in, the graphic below will update.

In Virginia, a recount can be requested if the final margin is within 1%; the state will pay for it if the margin is within 0.5%. A campaign must request the recount within ten days of the election being certified.

Good, Chair of the House Freedom Caucus, is in danger of becoming the first incumbent House member to lose this cycle, with the exception of a member vs. member race in Alabama. He helped orchestrate the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.  A super PAC affiliated with McCarthy and establishment Republicans worked to return the favor.

Good was also an early supporter of the presidential bid of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, which turned Donald Trump against him as well. The former president has endorsed McGuire.

More at-risk incumbents next Tuesday.

Tuesday brings us primaries in Colorado, New York, and Utah. There are several incumbents to watch here, leading off with the one most at-risk of losing his seat.

NY-16 (D): Rep. Jamaal Bowman is facing a serious challenge to his seat from Westchester County Executive George Latimer. An Emerson College poll out earlier this month showed Latimer with a 17% lead. Bowman, a member of "The Squad" of progressive U.S. House members, has been a strong detractor of Israel's prosecution of the war with Hamas. Supporters of Israel are backing Latimer and their spending has turned this into one of the most expensive primary contests ever.

UT-02 (R): Freshman Rep. Celeste Maloy won a special election here in 2023. She supported legislation that Sen. Mike Lee opposed, with Lee subsequently endorsing her opponent, businessman Colby Jenkins. Maloy gained the endorsement of Donald Trump earlier this week, putting her in a better position to turn back the challenge.

CO-04 (R): Rep. Lauren Boebert (CO-03), held to a narrow 546 vote win in 2022, decided to take her reelection to the other side of the state after the resignation of Rep. Ken Buck. She parachuted into a primary that already had several notable candidates who did not clear the field for her. However, The Cook Political Report ($) notes that the large field will split the sizeable anti-Boebert vote, helping her win the nomination. She also has the support of Donald Trump.

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