2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls

Current as of Map Timestamp

This map tracks a Biden-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

This final update for this map was July 21, the day President Biden withdrew from the race.

Current

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VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
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DC

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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NE

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Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island Primaries

September 10, 2024

The final three statewide primaries before the November 5 general election take place Tuesday

Overview and Live Results: Massachusetts Primary

September 3, 2024

Outside two GOP congressional primaries, there's not all that much to see in this Democratic stronghold

Live Results: Oklahoma Legislative Runoffs, Tulsa Mayoral Election

August 27, 2024

Top two runoffs are required in 10 state legislative districts where no candidate received a majority in the June 18 primary

538 Forecast Model Relaunches for Harris vs. Trump General Election

August 23, 2024

The forecast starts with a small lead for Harris, but the site notes a wide range of outcomes are ultimately possible

Overview and Live Results: Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming primaries

August 20, 2024

Just a handful of 2024 primaries will remain after Tuesday's contests