2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls
Current as of Map Timestamp
This map tracks a Biden-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used.
States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
The map will update three times daily. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets much closer.
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RI |
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Map :
![Taegan Goddard's Political Wire](/images/pol_wire_logo.png)
A Dead Heat in the Battlegrounds
Democrats Shift to a Simpler Message
Republicans Are Already Souring on J.D. Vance
Kamala Harris Erases Trump’s Lead
Trump to Hold Rally Where Assassination Attempt Failed
Headlines
Polling Map for Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Polls are still limited for the nascent general election match-up, but will become more plentiful in the weeks ahead
Updating the 270toWin Website After Biden's Withdrawal
The site will be updated with tools to reflect an expected contest with Vice President Harris as the Democratic nominee
Update on U.S. House Vacancies
The death of Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee created a third open seat; Republicans hold a 220-212 partisan edge
Live Results: New Jersey 10th Congressional District Special Primary
The winner of the September 18 special election will complete the term of the late Donald Payne Jr.
Introducing the 2024 Presidential Election Simulator
Run a simulated Biden - Trump election or view the results of 25,000 daily simulations
Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map: Select 'Share Map' button above. Share or Embed your Map: