2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls

Current as of Map Timestamp

This map tracks a Biden-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

The map will update three times daily. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets much closer.

Current

no 2024 election
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VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
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ME
NE

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Headlines

Overview and Results: Republican Caucuses in Idaho, Michigan, and Missouri

March 2, 2024

Already unusual as the second half of a two-part nominating contest, Michigan's caucuses have turmoil surrounding competing party factions

Overview and Live Results: Michigan Presidential Primary

February 27, 2024

Democrats pushed the state to the front of the nominating calendar; Republicans will hold a split event to accommodate party rules

Overview and Live Results: South Carolina Republican Primary

February 24, 2024

The winner of this primary has been the GOP nominee in all but one cycle since 1980

Overview and Live Results: Milwaukee Mayoral Primary

February 20, 2024

Mayor Cavalier Johnson is seeking reelection to a full four-year term

Overview and Live Results: Special Election Tuesday to Fill the Congressional Seat Held by George Santos

February 13, 2024

Several legislative special elections are also being held Tuesday