2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls

Current as of Map Timestamp

This map tracks a Biden-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

The map will update three times daily. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets much closer.


no 2024 election
no 2024 election

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Overview and Live Results: Oklahoma and Virginia Primaries; Georgia Runoffs

June 18, 2024

Having alienated much of the GOP, Rep. Bob Good (VA-05) is at risk of becoming one of the first incumbents to lose a primary this year

Live Results: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina Primaries

June 10, 2024

There is also a special election for a congressional vacancy in Ohio

Guam and U.S. Virgin Islands Democratic Caucuses

June 7, 2024

The final nominating contests for 2024 take place in two U.S. territories

Live Results: Primaries in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota

June 4, 2024

Several down-ballot races of note, along with the final state-run presidential primaries of this cycle.

Overview and Live Results: Texas Primary Runoff Elections

May 28, 2024

30 runoffs for U.S. House and State Legislative seats where no candidate received a majority in the March 5 primary