2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls
Current as of Map Timestamp
This map tracks a Biden-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used.
States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
This final update for this map was July 21, the day President Biden withdrew from the race.
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Map :
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Headlines
Overview and Live Results: Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island Primaries
The final three statewide primaries before the November 5 general election take place Tuesday
Overview and Live Results: Massachusetts Primary
Outside two GOP congressional primaries, there's not all that much to see in this Democratic stronghold
Live Results: Oklahoma Legislative Runoffs, Tulsa Mayoral Election
Top two runoffs are required in 10 state legislative districts where no candidate received a majority in the June 18 primary
538 Forecast Model Relaunches for Harris vs. Trump General Election
The forecast starts with a small lead for Harris, but the site notes a wide range of outcomes are ultimately possible
Overview and Live Results: Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming primaries
Just a handful of 2024 primaries will remain after Tuesday's contests
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