2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls

Current as of Map Timestamp

This map tracks a Biden-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

This final update for this map was July 21, the day President Biden withdrew from the race.

Current

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2024 election as a Trump vs. Biden forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2024 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2028 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below
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VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Rhode Island State Senate Special Primary

July 8, 2025

The seat opened with the April death of long time state Sen. Dominick Ruggerio

Tennessee Republican Rep. Mark Green to Resign from Congress July 20

July 6, 2025

He previously announced his intention to take a job in the private sector

Reps. Evans and Johnson to Leave House; Now 16 Retirements in 2026 Cycle

July 2, 2025

Both represent safe seats for the incumbent party; Johnson is running for South Dakota governor

Live Results: New York City Ranked Choice Tabulation

July 1, 2025

Zohran Mamdani is expected to move one step closer to being certified as the Democratic nominee for mayor

Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year

June 29, 2025

He had come under attack from Trump after voting "no" to advance the president's signature legislation