Election News

As of this morning, Clinton has 2,291 delegates, just 92 away from the 2,383 required to win the nomination. 

On the Republican side, Donald Trump won Oregon and moved to within 77 of the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch.

Both Clinton and Trump should cross the delegate finish line on June 7. Between now and then, the election calendar is light. Next Tuesday, Republicans will vote in Washington followed by Democratic caucuses in the Virgin Islands on June 4 and Puerto Rico on June 5. The final big day of the primary season is the aforementioned June 7. California headlines five primaries that day.

Hillary Clinton starts the day 143 delegates from the 2,383 she needs to clinch the Democratic nomination, while Donald Trump, now the presumptive Republican nominee, needs 103 to officially reach the magic number of 1,237 delegates. Neither can reach the required total today with the pledged delegates available.

Democratic Primaries:  There are 61 pledged delegates available in the Democratic Oregon primary. A single poll from last week gabe Clinton a 15 point lead over Bernie Sanders. However, the Vermont Senator has done quite well in other Western states, winning all those in orange in this map:

The PredictIt market is pricing Sanders with about an 80% chance of winning, seemingly ignoring the single poll result. 

The likely winner is also unclear in Kentucky, where no recent polling has been conducted. While the state should favor Clinton, she was easily beaten by Sanders last week in neighboring West Virginia, a state with many similarities. 55 pledged delegates are available in the Bluegrass State. 

As with all Democratic contests, the delegates will be awarded proportionately based partially on the statewide result, partially on the result within each congressional district. 

Republican Primaries: 28 delegates are available in the Oregon primary, allocated based on the statewide result. As the presumptive nominee and with the only active campaign, Trump should receive most of these.

The first map is the polling map; limited to states that have been polled in 2016. Most of the dark blue states are the usual suspects. While Michigan and Wisconsin haven't voted Republican in a generation, the Trump campaign will likely try and put these and other rust belt states into play; those may poll closer as the campaign wears on.   

Some of the traditionally Republican states where polling has been done are surprisingly close, with Arizona actually leaning Clinton in the limited polling. It is worth noting, however, that most of the deep red states have not yet been surveyed.

If we take the above map, and apply the 2012 winning party to the states that have not yet been polled, we get the following map. Click/tap it for an interactive version:
 

Your 2016 Forecast Map

You can create your own forecast starting from any interactive version, including the home page, the above map, our pundit maps or the library maps. For 2016, we've added the capability for electoral maps to have 3, 5 or 7 colors in the rotation. Just click/tap 'Map Options' near the share buttons below the map. 

Looking at the number of pledged delegates available in upcoming events, both Clinton and Trump should cross the finish line on June 7th. 

Clinton's path to victory has been made easier by the overwhelming support of party superdelegates. Despite the math, Sanders has vowed to stay in the race "until the last vote is cast". His best hope is to pass Clinton in pledged delegates over the course of the remaining contests and use that to persuade superdelegates to rethink their commitment. Sanders would need to win about 2/3 of the remaining pledged delegates for the first part of this to occur. While not impossible, it would require a pretty dramatic shift in this final month of Democratic voting. That said, the closer Sanders can get, the more influence he and his supporters are likely to have in shaping the platform and program at the Democratic Convention this July.

A Clinton vs. Trump match-up in November was also tested. Here, Clinton bested Trump by 43-32. Although lots of undecided/other in that result, the 11 point margin is similar to Barack Obama's 12 point win over Mitt Romney in 2012. Oregon has not voted Republican in the general election since 1984.

We've updated the Clinton vs. Trump electoral map based on polls for this result. 

Hillary Clinton starts the day 155 delegates from the 2,383 she needs to clinch the Democratic nomination, while Donald Trump, now the presumptive Republican nominee, needs 169 to officially reach the magic number of 1,237 delegates. Neither can reach the required total today with the pledged delegates available.

Democratic Primary:  There are 29 pledged delegates available in the Democratic West Virginia primary. Sanders leads the limited polling by 6 points. As with all Democratic contests, the delegates will be awarded proportionately based partially on the statewide result, partially on the result within each congressional district. Regardless of the outcome today, Clinton is likely to clinch the nomination on June 7th. Six states, including California with 475 pledged delegates, vote that day.

Republican Primaries: 70 delegates are available today. Nebraska has 36 delegates, winner take all. There has been no polling here, but, with no competition, little reason to think anyone other than Trump will win. Trump has a commanding lead in West Virginia. He should win most or all of the state's 34 delegates, depsite the convoluted way they are awarded. June 7th is also the most likely date for Trump to officially seal the nomination.

This poll shows a closer race in Florida and Pennsylvania than other recent 2016 election polls; Ohio remains close. This is the first set of polls in these traditional swing states since Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee. Future polls will tell us whether this result indicates a growing acceptance of Trump as Republican standard-bearer. 

Note: The image above has been corrected from an earlier version. The initial version said Clinton - Sanders when it should have been Sanders - Trump.

Given ballot access issues associated with an independent bid, another option mentioned is achieving this via a 3rd party. The Libertarian party is already on the ballot in most states, and is working toward being an option in all 50 states. The party holds its nominating convention Memorial Day weekend in Orlando. In 2012, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson received over 1.2 million votes (about 1% of the national total) as their nominee. Johnson is running for the party's nomination again in 2016. A big hurdle for the Libertarian nominee will be achieving the 15% national polling support needed to qualify for this fall's presidential debates.  

However a Trump alternative emerges, the 'dream scenario' for those seeking that is one where none of the three candidates reaches the required 270 electoral votes. In that case, the election will be thrown into the House of Representatives, with each state delegation getting one vote. Since Republicans control most of these votes, the thinking is the majority will side with the Trump alternative.

That outcome is highly unlikely, as Trump and the 3rd party/independent would mostly be competing for the same subset of voters. This might actually increase the electoral vote count for Hillary Clinton. For it to have a remote shot at working, Clinton would need to be a weak nominee by Election Day and the Trump alternative would need to be someone that could focus on and win a couple blue states without significantly diluting the non-Clinton vote elsewhere. 

Scenario 1: Based on current polling, Clinton wins 347-191. This is the actual 2012 electoral map with North Carolina flipping to the Democrats. 

 

 

Trump will meet Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.