Election News

The first 2020 presidential debate is eight days out, taking place over two nights on June 26 and 27. Last week, we learned on which night each of the 20 candidates will appear. Now we know where they will stand on the podium. 

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke will be at center stage night one. On the 2nd night, it will be former Vice-President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.  All candidates were placed based on their qualifying polling average as of June 12.  The higher-polling candidates are closest to the center.

Note that in the graphic below, we use the national polling average as of June 18. This will not exactly match up with the qualifying average, which was based on national and early state polls from a list of highly-rated polling organizations.

Republican Rep. Susan Brooks of Indiana's 5th congressional district will not seek a fifth term in 2020. Absent an incumbent, The Cook Political Report and other forecasters have moved this suburban Indianapolis district from 'safe' to a consensus rating of 'lean Republican'. The district has demographic similarities to other affluent districts that have been trending away from the GOP during the Trump era. That said, the president won the district by 12 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and will, of course, be seeking a 2nd term in 2020.

Brooks is the 8th current member of the U.S. House to announce a 2020 departure. Five are retiring, while two are running for Senate. Montana's at-large GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte recently announced he would be running for governor.

The 20 Democratic candidates that qualified for the first presidential debate have been split into two groups.  According to a subsequent tweet by @rubycramer, the Orange group will appear on the first night, June 26. The Purple group, will go on June 27.

The Democratic National Committee has announced that 20 candidates have qualified for the party's first presidential debate.  

Gov. Kate Brown signed a bill Wednesday that adds Oregon to the National Popular Vote compact. 15 states and Washington D.C., with a total of 196 electoral votes have now approved the initiative. States in the compact agree to award their electoral votes to the winner of the nationwide popular vote, a choice that could differ from that made by its own citizens.  However, it does not take effect until states totaling 270 electoral votes have joined. Until such time, nothing is changing for how Oregon allocates its electoral votes.

The initiative is being driven primarily by Democratic-leaning states; all voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (see map, above). Aside from Colorado and New Mexico, these states have all voted Democratic since at least 1992.    Oregon last voted for a Republican in Ronald Reagan's landslide 1984 reelection. 

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has moved past Bernie Sanders and into 2nd place in the 2020 Democratic field. That's the finding of a Economist/YouGov national poll of likely Democratic primary voters. Warren's four point margin over the Vermont Senator reflects a 9 point change since last week. 

It remains to be seen if this result is an outlier or the start of a trend. Sanders retains a lead of about 5% in the overall polling average. However, the 16% is Warren's high-water mark to date. She has made slow and steady gains since late April, when she first moved into double digits in a poll.

A new Quinnipiac poll in Texas gives former Vice President Joe Biden a narrow four point lead on Donald Trump. Six other prospective Democratic matchups favor the president by anywhere from one to four points. This includes a three-point lead over Texans Beto O'Rourke and Julian Castro.

Trump won the Lone Star State by 9 points in 2016. The state has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter won here in 1976. 

We're tracking general election polls. Filter by state and/or prospective Democratic nominee.

Donald Trump trails in Michigan, one of the 'blue wall' states he flipped to win the 2016 presidential election, a new poll finds. The survey of 600 likely voters shows the two leading Democrats, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, with a double-digit lead over Trump. The race becomes more competitive against three other prospective nominees.

We've added a delegate section to our Democratic state primary pages. Where one or more recent polls is available, you'll see an estimated allocation of the state's delegates based on that poll (or average).  A fully interactive delegate calculator will be available later this summer. 

Here's the estimated allocation of North Carolina's 110 pledged delegates based on today's Emerson College poll of the state. A 15% minimum threshold is required to win any delegates.  

Former Vice President Joe Biden remains well out in front of the large 2020 Democratic field, two new national polls find. In the Morning Consult weekly tracking poll, Biden is at 38%, twice that of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who is at 19%. Elizabeth Warren is third at 10%. These numbers have changed little in recent weeks.

CNN finds Biden at 32% with Sanders at 18%. No other candidate reaches double-digits. Biden dropped 7 points from the 39% he received in that organization's late April poll, which was released just after he formally entered the race.

Overall, the 270toWin national polling average has Biden at 34%, Sanders 18% and Warren 11%, with these new polls not impacting the numbers very much.  The race seems to have stabilized for now; that may well change after the first Democratic debate in 3 weeks.