Election News

Despite some variability across individual polls, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders retain double-digit leads as we head into the final weekend before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. The five polls being averaged below were all released today (one yesterday on the Democratic side).

Republican: Trump and Rubio were 1-2 in all five of today's releases, with Trump's lead ranging from 10 to 21 points. Ted Cruz and John Kasich are essentially tied for 3rd, on average, although the two were no closer than 3 points in any individual poll. 

A significant snowstorm is possible Tuesday for at least parts of New Hampshire, according to the National Weather Service. If the greatest impacts are along the coastal areas of the state, as is currently possible, it could impact turnout in areas of the state most receptive to 'establishment' candidates such as Rubio, Kasich, Bush & Christie.

UMass Lowell, in conjunction with 7News in Boston has been conducting a daily tracking poll of New Hampshire voters. Today's release marked the fourth consecutive day, and the first where it appears most of the survey was taken after Iowa. It is expected the poll will be released daily, with the final one on the morning of the New Hampshire primary, February 9. 

Republicans:  Marco Rubio has gained each day, building on the strength of his better-than-expected showing in Iowa. Today he passed Ted Cruz and into 2nd place, although that one point difference is statistically insignificant. Donald Trump remains well out in front of the dwindling Republican pack. Rand Paul, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee have left the race since the tracking poll began.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is ending his 2016 presidential bid, CNN reports. Santorum, who edged eventual nominee Mitt Romney in the 2012 Iowa caucus, was unable to gain any momentum in this year's campaign. He finished a distant 11th, with just 1%, in the 2016 caucus held earlier this week.

Santorum is the second candidate to exit the race today; Rand Paul announced his departure this morning. Mike Huckabee and Democrat Martin O'Malley have also left the race since Monday.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul became the third person to end a 2016 presidential campaign on the heels of a poorer than hoped-for showing at the Iowa caucus. Paul announced he was suspending his campaign:

“Although, today I will suspend my campaign for president, the fight is far from over,” Mr. Paul said in a statement. “I will continue to carry the torch for Liberty in the United States Senate and I look forward to earning the privilege to represent the people of Kentucky for another term.”

Updating an earlier story, Hillary Clinton has been declared the winner of the Iowa caucuses based on the final results of the Democratic Party there. The Party indicated it would not be doing a recount despite the close result. A spokesman for the Sanders campaign indicated that it wouldn't challenge the results.

Clinton won by about 0.3%. She earned 23 delegates, Sanders 21. Eight delegates remain unallocated at this time. 2,383 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

Despite the Clinton campaign's victory claim, the Iowa Democratic caucuses remain too close to call, according to a late morning update to clients from The Associated Press. 

With all but one precinct reporting, Clinton has just a three-tenths of one percent (0.3%) lead over Sanders. The update goes on to note that Sanders hasn't conceded and the state Democratic Party has not commented on whether a recount is forthcoming.

Republican: Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses, with about 28% of the vote. In a close three-way race, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio were next at 24% and 23%, respectively. Cruz and Rubio outperformed the polling average by several points, while Trump underperformed slightly. 

Delegates are allocated proportionately in Iowa so delegates were pretty evenly split among the top three finishers. Cruz received 8, with Trump and Rubio getting 7 each. A few delegates remain unallocated at this point.

Ted Cruz has won the Iowa Republican caucus, edging Donald Trump and Marco Rubio.  Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee has suspended his campaign.

After a poor showing in Iowa, former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley is expected to suspend his campaign.

This will leave a two-person Democratic race. As of this writing, Iowa is too close to call between Sanders and Clinton.