July 2, 2019
Sen. Kamala Harris' debate performance has yielded notable gains in a new Suffolk University poll of Democrats likely to attend the Iowa caucuses. Former vice president Joe Biden leads with 24%, followed by Harris at 16% and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 9% and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 6%. No other candidate received more than 2% support.
This is the first Suffolk poll of Iowa this cycle, so no apples-apples comparison can be made. However, in the table below we've compared this poll with that released by Selzer & Co. in early June. Selzer & Co. is one of the most highly regarded pollsters in the state.
Biden saw no change between the two polls, but many of the other candidates had significant moves. Harris more than doubled her level of support and moved into 2nd place. Sanders and Buttigieg saw the most significant drop in support. Buttigieg had been polling significantly better here than in the national polls. While he may have previously received the benefit of being from a neighboring state, he is now perhaps being more adversely impacted by the ongoing firestorm around the police shooting of Eric Logan.
Kansas Republicans opted for nominees with better general election prospects, while a dynastic Missouri Democratic congressman was defeated
After a two week break, August 4 brings us primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington
Biden is likely to prevail here, but a competitive electoral vote available in the state's 2nd congressional district - won by Trump in 2016 - will draw considerable attention.
See how often a state votes with the election winner and also which states most frequently put the winner across the 270 electoral vote threshold.
Reliably Republican at the presidential level through most of the 20th century, it has voted Democratic since 2008 and looks fairly safe for Joe Biden in 2020