Election News

All three seats will be filled by special election. The Wisconsin one will be on May 12, 2020, the other two are not yet scheduled. All three seats are likely to be retained by the incumbent party. 

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On Saturday, Rep. Francis Rooney of Florida announced he would not seek a third term in 2020.  Rooney had said on Friday that he couldn't rule out supporting the impeachment of President Trump without knowing all the facts. 

This brings to 24 the number of current U.S. House.  18 are Republicans, 6 are Democrats.  Of those, 7 are from seats that are likely to be competitive next year.  6 of those are in GOP hands, with one held by a Democratic incumbent.

Polling Update

The table below shows select current 270toWin Polling Averages for each candidate in Tuesday's debate, as well as for the candidates that did not qualify. Included is the national average, as well as in each of the four early primary and caucus states.

Candidates in blue or red text will appear in Tuesday's debate; the eight in blue text have already met the qualifying criteria for the next debate, scheduled for November 20.

Visit our Democratic Primary page for calendar and polling information for all 50 states. 

Although the 50 U.S. governorships are currently pretty evenly split (27 R, 23 D), Edwards is one of the only Democrats holding the office in the South. That position is a bit more precarious heading into the November runoff, as the two primary GOP challengers combined for about 51% of the vote. Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the race from Leans Democratic to Toss Up. 

The content below relates to the October 12 primary. Use the link above the == for the November 16 runoff.

Democrat John Bel Edwards is attempting to win a 2nd term as Governor of Louisiana as voters cast their ballots on Saturday.  Polls close at 8:00 PM Central Time (9:00 PM Eastern). Follow along below as the results come in.

Aside from the presidential election, Louisiana doesn't hold traditional primaries for Federal and state offices. All candidates will appear on a single ballot in Saturday's election. If one candidate receives a majority of the vote, they are the winner. If not, the top two finishers, even if from the same party, move on to the general election on November 16.

What to Expect

We're watching two things.  Will Edwards get a majority of the vote? If not, which Republican will place 2nd and take him on in November? 

Recent polling shows the incumbent governor well ahead, but just short of the 50% threshold. Two Republicans, Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone, are set to split most of the rest of the vote, and are in a statistical tie for 2nd.

Other Gubernatorial Elections

In addition to Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi will hold gubernatorial contests this year, both on November 5. Those other states both have Republican incumbents. The election in Kentucky is seen as a toss up; unpopular Gov. Matt Bevin is seeking a 2nd term. In Mississippi, Gov. Phil Bryant is termed out.  Both parties have strong nominees, but the deep red lean of the state means the GOP is favored to hold the seat.  Next year, 11 more states will hold gubernatorial elections.  Create and share your forecast with the Governor Interactive Map.

This is the same number of debates that were held in advance of the 2016 presidential election.  However, each 2020 debate is more than a week closer to Election Day than the corresponding one in 2016. This is partially due to a later calendar date, as well as the fact that the 2020 election is five days earlier (November 3 vs. November 8) than in 2016.  For example, the final debate in 2016, on October 19, was 20 days before the November 8 election. In 2020, the final debate will be October 22, just 12 days in advance of the November 3 election.

After not qualifying for the September debate, Gabbard was the 12th and final Democrat to meet the criteria for October. She is polling at just under 1% nationally.  While this threat will gain her some publicity, it is hard to see how an actual boycott will help her candidacy.

Lowey is the 23rd current House member to announce they will retire or seek another office in 2020. Two of the six Democrats on the list (Lowey and Jose Serrano) are from New York. The retirement map^ has been updated.  

* The Clinton's Chappaqua home is in the 17th district. There has been speculation in the past that Chelsea Clinton would run for the seat when Lowey retired. That talk will likely pick up again until she makes an announcement one way or the other.

^ This link will take you to the retirement map in the redesigned version of 270toWin.  For those that haven't tried it yet, we'd welcome feedback. There are links at the top of most pages to take you back to the 'old' design if you so choose.

Since the September debate, Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer have met the minimum requirements of 2% in four qualifying polls and 130,000 unique donors.

The fifth Democratic debate will take place in November, date and location TBA. As previously noted, the DNC is raising the bar to winnow the field.  The 2% polling threshold will go to 3%, while the unique donor requirement goes to 165,000. There is also a new, alternative polling qualifier: 5% or more in two polls from among the four early states.  Five candidates have qualified to this point: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. 

Rating change: indicted Rep. Chris Collins (R)'s resignation moves #NY27 from Lean R to Solid R at @CookPolitical. Collins was the only reason this Trump +24 seat was ever in play.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 30, 2019

There are now two vacancies in Congress; Former GOP Rep. Sean Duffy of Wisconsin resigned last week.  The U.S. House currently has 235 Democrats and 197 Republicans, with one independent.