Election News

Republican Rep. Susan Brooks of Indiana's 5th congressional district will not seek a fifth term in 2020. Absent an incumbent, The Cook Political Report and other forecasters have moved this suburban Indianapolis district from 'safe' to a consensus rating of 'lean Republican'. The district has demographic similarities to other affluent districts that have been trending away from the GOP during the Trump era. That said, the president won the district by 12 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and will, of course, be seeking a 2nd term in 2020.

Brooks is the 8th current member of the U.S. House to announce a 2020 departure. Five are retiring, while two are running for Senate. Montana's at-large GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte recently announced he would be running for governor.

The 20 Democratic candidates that qualified for the first presidential debate have been split into two groups.  According to a subsequent tweet by @rubycramer, the Orange group will appear on the first night, June 26. The Purple group, will go on June 27.

The Democratic National Committee has announced that 20 candidates have qualified for the party's first presidential debate.  

1. Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado
2. Former Vice President Joe Biden
3. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey
4. South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg
5. Former Housing Secretary Julián Castro
6. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio
7. Former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland
8. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii
9. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
10. Sen. Kamala Harris of California
11. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper of Colorado
12. Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington
13. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
14. Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas
15. Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio
16. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont
17. Rep. Eric Swalwell of California
18. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
19. Author Marianne Williamson
20. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang

The debate will take place over two nights - June 26 and 27 - in Miami. On Friday, the field will be divided into two groups of 10.  To get there, the DNC will divide candidates into two tiers, those polling at or above 2%, and the remainder.  Each group will be randomly split across the two nights.

NBC News, along MSNBC and Telemundo - two NBC owned networks - will host the two hour debates. There will be five moderators.

Gov. Kate Brown signed a bill Wednesday that adds Oregon to the National Popular Vote compact. 15 states and Washington D.C., with a total of 196 electoral votes have now approved the initiative. States in the compact agree to award their electoral votes to the winner of the nationwide popular vote, a choice that could differ from that made by its own citizens.  However, it does not take effect until states totaling 270 electoral votes have joined. Until such time, nothing is changing for how Oregon allocates its electoral votes.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has moved past Bernie Sanders and into 2nd place in the 2020 Democratic field. That's the finding of a Economist/YouGov national poll of likely Democratic primary voters. Warren's four point margin over the Vermont Senator reflects a 9 point change since last week. 

A new Quinnipiac poll in Texas gives former Vice President Joe Biden a narrow four point lead on Donald Trump. Six other prospective Democratic matchups favor the president by anywhere from one to four points. This includes a three-point lead over Texans Beto O'Rourke and Julian Castro.

We're tracking general election polls. Filter by state and/or prospective Democratic nominee.

Donald Trump trails in Michigan, one of the 'blue wall' states he flipped to win the 2016 presidential election, a new poll finds. The survey of 600 likely voters shows the two leading Democrats, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, with a double-digit lead over Trump. The race becomes more competitive against three other prospective nominees.

We've added a delegate section to our Democratic state primary pages. Where one or more recent polls is available, you'll see an estimated allocation of the state's delegates based on that poll (or average).  A fully interactive delegate calculator will be available later this summer. 

Here's the estimated allocation of North Carolina's 110 pledged delegates based on today's Emerson College poll of the state. A 15% minimum threshold is required to win any delegates.  

Former Vice President Joe Biden remains well out in front of the large 2020 Democratic field, two new national polls find. In the Morning Consult weekly tracking poll, Biden is at 38%, twice that of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who is at 19%. Elizabeth Warren is third at 10%. These numbers have changed little in recent weeks.

CNN finds Biden at 32% with Sanders at 18%. No other candidate reaches double-digits. Biden dropped 7 points from the 39% he received in that organization's late April poll, which was released just after he formally entered the race.

Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland said in an interview that he would not challenge President Trump for the Republican nomination in 2020. The comment came just a day after former Ohio Gov. John Kasich said the same on CNN.