Election News

Super Tuesday Republican Recap

March 2, 2016

Donald Trump strengthened his status as Republican frontrunner on Super Tuesday, winning 7 of the night's eleven contests. Trump swept the Southeastern states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennesssee, as well as New England (Massachusetts and Vermont) and Virginia. Ted Cruz won his home state of Texas, neighboring Oklahoma and Alaska. Marco Rubio got his first victory of the campaign, winning the Minnesota caucus.

Here's how the delegate count looks as of this morning, with the caveat that many of the night's delegates have still not been allocated. For example, Texas has 155 delegates, only 77 of them have awarded to this point. The remainder of the delegates (in all states) are likely pending final results in individual Congressional Districts. 

The info above is sourced from the New York Times. Trump now has 285 of the 1,237 delegates needed to nominate. The next Republican contests are this Saturday, with a primary in Louisiana and caucuses in Kansas, Kentucky and Maine. Prior to that, the remaining candidates will convene in Detroit for a 9PM ET debate on Fox. The moderators are Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace. Trump is expected to attend; recall he skipped the last Fox-moderated debate due to his ongoing feud with Kelly. 



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Super Tuesday Results

March 1, 2016

Summary of what we know so far. Click links for delegate info

9PM Closings

Clinton wins Texas

Cruz wins Texas

830PM Closings

Clinton wins Arkansas

Trump wins Arkansas

8PM Closings

Trump wins Massachusetts, Alabama, Tennessee

Clinton wins Alabama Tennessee 

Clinton/Sanders Massachusetts too close to call

Cruz wins Oklahoma,  Democrat too close to call

====

Clinton wins Georgia 

Clinton wins Virginia 

Sanders wins Vermont 

Trump wins Georgia 

Trump wins Virginia 

Trump/Kasich - Vermont Too Close to Call

Clinton wins American Samoa  


Final Super Tuesday Republican Polling Averages

March 1, 2016

Donald Trump looks poised to win seven of the eight Super Tuesday states where recent polling is available, with Ted Cruz the favorite to win Texas, home to the largest delegate prize. Marco Rubio has the most consistent support across the states and that should be good enough for a 2nd or 3rd place everywhere.

 

The most recent Arkansas poll is from early February. It is unfortunate that there hasn't been any polling since, as this could end up being the day's most competitive primary. No recent polling is available in the caucus states.

Delegate allocation is somewhat proportional in all the Super Tuesday states, with many states offering delegates based both on the statewide result and the result within each Congressional District. As a result, while Trump is likely to win the most delegates today, Rubio and Cruz will get their share.


CNN Poll Highlights a Primary vs. November Paradox

March 1, 2016

Super Tuesday is underway; a day that is likely to see Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton further cement their status as their respective party's likely nominees. (Super Tuesday Republican and Democratic polling update).

A new CNN | ORC poll for the general election shows that intra-party dominance doesn't extend to the general election. (We've noticed this for the last several months, but it is particularly obvious now that the number of likely match-ups has decreased).

 

Bernie Sanders easily defeats all three Republicans sampled, and significantly outperforms Clinton in each case. In the most extreme case, Cruz leads Clinton by one while Sanders beats him by 17 points. 

Looking at it from the Republican side, Trump is easily beaten by either Clinton or Sanders, while Rubio and Cruz have a small lead over Clinton. Rubio outperforms Trump against either opponent.

Some of these differences can likely be attributed to the fact that Sanders is viewed much more favorably than Clinton (57% favorable for Sanders, 42% for Clinton in the poll) and that Clinton and Trump had the highest unfavorables (55% and 60%, respectively). 


Clinton vs. Sanders: A Super Tuesday Polling Update

February 28, 2016

Four contests are in the books; Hillary Clinton leads the delegate count 91-65 in those; she has a much larger lead of 544-85 when superdelegates are included. 2,382 delegates are needed to secure the nomination. 

Super Tuesday is less than two days out; over 20% of Democratic delegates will be up for grabs that day. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Democratic primaries generally follow the same proportional allocation formula, allocating some statewide, some by Congressional District, with a 15% minimum threshold. As a result, except perhaps for Vermont, both Clinton and Sanders will likely earn some delegates in each contest.

In the list below, the delegate numbers are totals for the Democratic Convention, they may not all get allocated on Super Tuesday. Select a state for details. For a one-page look at who is leading each of the Democratic contests, not just those on Super Tuesday, go here.

Alabama (Primary, 60 delegates): Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 28 points in the PPP poll out mid-month (Solid Clinton)

Arkansas (Primary, 37): Clinton up 25 in a PPP poll (Solid Clinton)

Colorado (Caucus, 79): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 116): Clinton polling mid-60s in recent polls (Solid Clinton)

Massachusetts (Primary, 116): Neighbor state to Sanders home; if polling is correct this will likely be the closest Democratic battle on Super Tuesday (Toss-up) 

Minnesota (Caucus, 93): A late January poll showed Clinton up by 34 points (Solid Clinton)

Oklahoma (Primary, 42): The most recent poll had Clinton up just two, while others give her a much larger lead (Leans Clinton)

Tennessee (Primary, 76): Clinton up by 26 in two recent polls (Solid Clinton)

Texas (Primary, 252): The most recent polls have Clinton up by 20-30 points (Likely Clinton)

Vermont (Primary, 26): No contest here; Sanders leads his home state by about 70 points; may keep Clinton under 15% and win all the state's delegates (Solid Sanders)

Virginia (Primary, 110): The polls are a bit varied, but Clinton leads by at least 12 points; average is almost 20 points (Likely Clinton)

March 1 will also see the American Samoa territorial caucus, with 10 total delegates. 


Two Days Out: Super Tuesday Republican Polling Update

February 28, 2016

Super Tuesday is less than 48 hours away, with contests being held in 13 states on March 1. This will be the busiest date of the Republican nominating calendar. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Note that most delegates on this date will be allocated proportionately, either based on the statewide result, or some combination of statewide and each Congressional District. There is also usually a minimum threshold to claim any delegates. 

Click/tap a state for more details:

Alabama (Primary, 50 delegates): Two recent polls had Trump averaging 37%, Cruz and Rubio below 20% (Likely Trump)

Alaska (Caucus, 28): A January poll showed Trump & Cruz separated by 4 points (Toss-up)

Arkansas (Primary, 40): A poll earlier this month had Cruz, Trump & Rubio within 4 points (Toss-up)

Colorado (Caucus, 37): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 76): Several polls out this past week had Trump well ahead; Cruz & Rubio tight for 2nd. The state offers the 2nd most Republican delegates on Super Tuesday (Likely Trump)

Massachusetts (Primary, 42): Recent polls have Trump averaging in the mid-40s; Rubio & Kasich fighting for 2nd (Solid Trump)

Minnesota (Caucus, 38): A late January poll showed a pretty close 3-way race with Rubio, Cruz & Trump (Toss-up)

Oklahoma (Primary, 43): Trump appears to hold a small lead over a surging Rubio and neighboring state Senator Cruz (Leans Trump)

Tennessee (Primary, 58): A poll out today gives Trump 40%, well ahead of Cruz & Rubio (Likely Trump)

Texas (Primary, 155): The big delegate prize on Super Tuesday; Cruz is averaging about 10 points ahead of Trump and will likely prevail in his home state (Likely Cruz)

Vermont (Primary, 16): A poll out this past week (very small sample size) had Trump well ahead of Rubio and Kasich (Likely Trump)

Virginia (Primary, 49): Two most recent polls give Trump a large lead; Rubio may have a slight lead over Cruz for 2nd (Likely Trump)

Wyoming (Caucus, 29): No polling; delegates won't be known until a later date


New Feature: Popular Vote Margin of Victory

February 26, 2016

We've added a series of popular vote margin of victory maps, covering the presidential elections from 1972 to 2012. The maps let users see how competitive states were for a given election, as well as to see the (decreasing) competitiveness of many states over time. As an exmaple, the margin of victory map for 1996 is shown below.

 

 


Trump Wins Nevada; Rubio Edges Cruz for 2nd

February 24, 2016

Donald Trump easily won Tuesday's Nevada caucuses, winning about 46% of the vote. Marco Rubio appears to have edged Ted Cruz for 2nd, with both scoring in the low 20% range.

If these positions hold, it will be a repeat of the results of this past Saturday's South Carolina primary. Trump's margin in Nevada was much bigger than in South Carolina, but his delegate haul will be smaller, owing to Nevada's proportional allocation rules.

The preliminary delegate count is 12 for Trump, and 5 each for Rubio & Cruz. Trump is well out in front, but only a small number of delegates have been awarded to this point. A much larger batch awaits on Super Tuesday.


Super Tuesday Democratic Polling Update

February 23, 2016

February 28: We've updated the information below: Go Here.

Yesterday, we discussed the Super Tuesday Republican contests.

Democrats will hold their primary in South Carolina on Saturday, which Hillary Clinton is expected to win handily. Super Tuesday follows, with over 20% of delegates that day. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Democratic primaries generally follow the same proportional allocation formula, allocating some statewide, some by Congressional District, with a 15% minimum threshold. 

In the list below, the delegate numbers are totals for the Democratic Convention, they may not all get allocated on Super Tuesday. Select a state for details.

Public Policy (PPP) did a poll series for all the states with primaries on that date; in many cases the only polling available. The executive summary is that Clinton is set to do very well on Super Tuesday; she may only lose Vermont, although a couple other states may be competitive.

Alabama (Primary, 60 delegates): Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 28 points in the PPP poll out last week (Solid Clinton)

Arkansas (Primary, 37): Clinton up 25 in this PPP poll (Solid Clinton)

Colorado (Caucus, 79): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 116): A couple polls over the past week have Clinton up by an average of 43 points (Solid Clinton)

Massachusetts (Primary, 116): Neighbor state to Sanders home; he leads polling by an average of 3.5% (Toss-up) 

Minnesota (Caucus, 93): A late January poll showed Clinton up by 34 points (Solid Clinton)

Oklahoma (Primary, 42): One February poll had Clinton up 14, the other just two (Leans Clinton)

Tennessee (Primary, 76): Clinton up by 26 in PPP poll (Solid Clinton)

Texas (Primary, 252): Clinton's lead has been narrowing, but still up by 10 in a poll out today (Likely Clinton)

Vermont (Primary, 26): No contest here; Sanders leads his home state by about 70 points; may keep Clinton under 15% and win all the state's delegates (Solid Sanders)

Virginia (Primary, 110): PPP has Clinton up 22; another pollster has it at 12 (Likely Clinton)

March 1 will also see the American Samoa territorial caucus, with 10 total delegates. 


Cruz Leads in Texas, New Poll Finds; 155 Delegates Up for Grabs next Tuesday

February 23, 2016

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has an 8 point lead over overall Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, according to a new poll from the Texas Tribune. Cruz has 37%, Trump has 29% and Marco Rubio is at 15%. The two were tied in November, when the last Tribune poll was conducted.

The Texas Primary is on March 1; its 155 delegates represent the largest single prize on Super Tuesday. By comparison, only 133 delegates will be awarded in all four February Republican contests, including 30 at today's Nevada caucuses

Who will Win the 155 Delegates?

There's a lot of 'if' here, but if next Tuesday's statewide results match today's poll and if the results are the same in each of the state's 36 Congressional Districts, we estimate 99 delegates for Cruz, 56 for Trump. Based on a review of the allocation rules, the winner of each District would get two delegates, the 2nd place finisher gets one, while the 47 remaining delegates would be allocated proportionately between Cruz and Trump.

Given the diversity in the Texas electorate, it is unlikely that each District would vote the same way, and so the actual distribution of delegates will almost definitely be somewhat different than the above. Additionally, there are some thresholds that come into play. For example, a candidate getting >50% of the vote in any District (or statewide) wins all 3 delegates for that District (or 47 statewide). Likewise, if Rubio can reach 20% of the statewide vote, he'll join the proportional mix for the 47 delegates.



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