The New York Times reported that "The Supreme Court declined on Monday to address the central questions in two closely watched challenges to partisan gerrymandering, putting off for another time a ruling on the constitutionality of voting districts designed by legislatures to amplify one party’s political power."
The two cases in question were related to Wisconsin's redistricting plan as well as single congressional district in Maryland. As the Court had agreed to take on both cases, there was some expectation that it was ready to rule on this issue.
Barring any subsequent rulings on this topic, districts will next be redrawn after the 2020 Census, and will be first used in the 2022 Midterm elections.
There are currently seven vacancies in Congress. The next special election will be on June 30 in Texas' 27th congressional district. This will fill the seat of Republican Blake Farenthold, who resigned in April.
We've added a new way to create or update your 2018 forecast on the Senate Interactive Map. Until now, the only option was to click or tap a state repeatedly until arriving at the desired rating. This can be a bit cumbersome if you are building a map with all seven available ratings.
The new Color Chooser allows you to select a color/rating such that only one click is necessary on a race to get the desired rating. Check it out in the short video below.
Hours after President Trump tweeted that "he is better off in Argentina"*, Rep. Mark Sanford of South Carolina became the 2nd member of Congress to lose a primary for reelection in 2018. Overall, it was a good night for Trump-style candidates. Corey Stewart won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Virginia and Danny Tarkanian won in Nevada's 3rd congressional district. Tarkanian had been endorsed by Trump after he agreed to drop his challenge to Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada's U.S. Senate primary.
Full results from Tuesday's five primaries can be found here; select a state at the top of the page for details.
Five states are holding primaries today. A couple of the key races are highlighted below. Click or tap a state name for results from The New York Times. All times are Eastern.
Virginia: Polls close at 7:00 PM. There's a three-way battle for the Republican Senate nomination. Regardless of who wins, incumbent Tim Kaine is likely to be reelected in November. In the House, six Democrats are vying to take on GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock in a swing district near Washington, D.C.
South Carolina: Polls also close at 7:00 PM. Incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster, who took over when Nikki Haley became U.N. Ambassador, faces four opponents as he seeks the nomination for his first full term. McMaster has been ahead in recent polling, but seems likely to fall short of the 50% required to avoid a runoff. Whomever ultimately wins the nomination will be favored in the fall. The 1st congressional district may also prove interesting. President Trump has endorsed state Rep. Katie Arrington over incumbent Mark Sanford, who he said would be "better off in Argentina" in a Tuesday afternoon tweet.
Five states are holding primaries Tuesday. The poll closing times are listed in the table below, along with the number of congressional districts in the state - all are up for election in November - and whether there is a Senate and/or gubernatorial election in 2018.
If you live in one of these states, click or tap the name to find your polling location.
1 All times Eastern 2 Percentage must be exceeded to avoid runoff; date of runoff election 3 There is a lot of local flexibility in poll closing times. This is the latest time for most locations. If you are in North Dakota, check here for your polling place and hours.
Maine: Ranked-Choice Voting
Tuesday will see voters in Maine becoming the first in the nation to use ranked-choice voting (RCV) for statewide and congressional elections. It will apply to primary races with three or more candidates on the ballot. In those cases, voters will be able to rank as many of the candidates as they want in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority of first-place votes, the candidate who receives the fewest of these is eliminated. The ballots that chose the now-eliminated candidate first are recounted, with each voter's second choice being added to the first-round totals. If this puts someone over 50%, we have a winner. If not, there are additional rounds of allocation until one candidate achieves a majority of the votes counted in that round.
Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison entered the race for Minnesota attorney general Tuesday. It was the final day candidates could file. Ellison will forego running for a 7th term in the U.S. House, a race he would have been an overwhelming favorite to win.
Ellison's Minneapolis-area district is safely Democratic. He won reelection in 2016 by a 47% margin, while Hillary Clinton won here by 55%. It is the 39th most Democratic district in the country as measured by the Cook Political Report PVI.
Going into yesterday's top-two primary, 11 of California's 53 congressional districts were seen as at least somewhat competitive this fall by Sabato's Crystal Ball. In the California system, all candidates appear on a single ballot, with the top two vote-getters moving on to the general election, regardless of party.
The table below shows the outcome of those primaries. Vote tallies are aggregated from The New York Times results page as of about 9:00AM ET on Wednesday morning, June 6. California can take several weeks to finalize their numbers, so these totals are subject to change.
Eight states are holding primaries Tuesday. The poll closing times are listed in the table below, along with the number of congressional districts in the state - all are up for election in November - and whether there is a Senate and/or gubernatorial election in 2018.
2 Percentage must be exceeded to avoid runoff; date of runoff election
3 In addition to the regularly scheduled race, a special election will be held to fill the remainder of Thad Cochran's term. Voters will not choose nominees for this race on Tuesday. Instead, all candidates will appear on a single ballot on Election Day. If nobody earns a majority, a runoff will be November 27
California holds its non-partisan primary today. All candidates appear on a single ballot, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, moving on to the general election in November. We discussed some of the implications of that type of ballot in a short primary overview yesterday.
While this type of primary may yield some odd outcomes, such as a major party being shut out of a general election race, it also may prove to be a very good predictor of what to expect in November. Analyzing about 25 years of top-two results, the New York Times finds that "the California primary elections on Tuesday might give us a better idea of whether Democrats are headed for a so-called wave election — or whether their recent slide in the generic ballot and the bump in President Trump’s approval rating mean they should worry."
The data shows that "Since 1990, the major party vote share in top-two congressional primaries in Washington (which also uses the top-two system) and California has differed from the general election result by an average of just three percentage points."
