Election News

Looking past the top four, Jeb Bush seems to be in his own grouping, well back of Rubio and Cruz, but well ahead of the five candidates averaging around 3%.

With the holiday season upon us, the race for the nomination may quiet down for a few weeks with fewer polls and only one debate scheduled (December 15 in Las Vegas). As a result, absent any major gaffes, the relative position of the candidates may not change much until the race really kicks into high gear in early January, preceding the first primary/caucus events in early February. 

Jindal is the third of 17 Republicans to exit the race, preceded by fellow governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin and former Texas governor Rick Perry. Fourteen Republicans remain, although most support seems to be with four candidates: Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

Jindal is term-limited and his two terms as Louisiana governor will end in January. He will be replaced by either state representative John Bel Edwards or U.S. Senator David Vitter. These two will meet in a runoff election this Saturday, November 21st.

In the four match-ups surveyed, Webb received anywhere from 12-20% of the vote, in all cases larger than the difference between the two major party candidates. While these numbers would undoubtedly change were Webb to run, he could potentially tip the outcome in what was one of only four states to be decided by 5% or less in 2012 and thus the former Senator could have an outsized influence in who becomes our next president. (Virginia voting history).

The University did a 5th 3-way test, pitting Jeb Bush against Hillary Clinton, with Donald Trump running as an independent. Clinton easily won that match-up with 42% of the vote, with Trump (27%) and Bush (24%) nearly splitting the rest of the pie.

The Saturday night timing of the debate will likely keep viewership down, and that may be intentional on the part of the Democratic National Committee, which has been previously criticized for the small number of events.

Looking at the state of the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton remains well ahead of Bernie Sanders nationally and in Iowa. Martin O'Malley continues to garner little support, although he did see a best-to-date total of 5% in this week's CBS News/NY Times poll.

Iowa kicks off the 2016 election calendar when it holds party caucuses on Tuesday, February 1, 2016.

The next Republican debate is scheduled for December 15 in Las Vegas. It will be hosted by CNN.

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Preliminary Results

More than 50% of those participating in our overnight snap poll thought Donald Trump won the Fox Business main stage debate last night. Marco Rubio was a distant second with 16%. Trump and Rubio were also 1-2 in the recent CNBC debate, although a much closer 39% to 22%. Rand Paul had a better night according to our respondents, coming in 3rd at 10%; he had a lackluster 3% in the prior debate.

Only 4% thought Ben Carson, roughly tied with Trump in the national Republican polls, won the debate. Coming in dead last out of the eight participants was Jeb Bush.

Thanks to everyone that participated in our overnight snap poll. While we eliminated obvious duplicate votes from the results, we do want to note that this is just a response by those that chose to participate, and not a random sample.

Eight candidates qualified for this debate, with Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee not qualifying based on the 2.5% polling support cut-off set by the sponsors. Relegated to the earlier forum, these two will square off against Bobby Jindal and Rick Santorum. Not invited at all were Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki. As with previous debates, there has been no shortage of controvsery about the qualifying criteria. It is probably more justified in this case due to the limited number of polls included in the average as well as the polls chosen for inclusion. (One could argue Fox Business chose polls to get the results they wanted). In any case, as we've noted before (see last couple paragraphs), choosing participants based on national polls and miniscule differences in polling is illogical.

For those unfamiliar, Fox Business Network can be found in HD on Dish Network channel 206, DIRECTV channel 359, FiOS channel 617 and U-verse channel 1211. For other providers, including cable, use this Fox Business search tool.

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio continue to make up the 2nd tier in Iowa, and are essentially tied for 3rd. Taken together, the four candidates at the head of the Republican field are now receiving over 70% share.

On the Democratic side, CNN | ORC found Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders 55% to 37%, slightly tighter than other recent Iowa Democratic polls.

The Iowa Caucuses are 87 days out on February 1, 2016. 

The next Republican debate, hosted by Fox Business Network and the Wall Street Journal, will take place next Tuesday, November 10th in Milwaukee. As with prior events, there will be a main event (8PM ET) and an earlier debate for those that don't make the cut. Fox Business has previously said that candidates must have a 2.5% average in the four most recent polls through today to make the main stage. 

We don't know which polls Fox will use, but it looks like Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee's 4% will be enough to keep them in the main debate; Chris Christie may fall just short. The official lineup is expected to be announced tomorrow evening.

Louisiana will conduct a runoff for governor on November 21st. Unlike the above races won by Republicans, Democrat Jon Bel Edwards seems to be taking the lead against Senator David Vitter. 

A number of mayoral races took place today. Democrat Jennifer Roberts won in Charlotte as did James Kenney in Philadelphia. Democrat Joe Hogsett was victorious in Indianapolis. Houston and San Francisco, among many other cities, will also elect a mayor tonight.