14th District (Democratic Primary): Ten-term incumbent Rep. Joe Crowley was ousted by political novice Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. At 28, she will become the youngest woman ever elected to Congress if, as expected, she wins in this heavily Democratic district in November. Crowley is one of the most prominent members of the Democratic caucus and had been in the narrative to become Speaker of the House should the Democrats take back that body in November.
Three new Senate polls from CBS-You Gov offer up a mixed bag for both parties. Click/tap the state name for all polls of the race.
Arizona: Incumbent Republican Jeff Flake is retiring. The Democratic nominee is likely to be Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. She will face off against a Republican to be selected in the state's primary on August 28th. Sinema leads all three of her prospective general election rivals. She has an 8 point margin on Rep. Martha McSally and former state Sen. Kelli Ward. Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio trails Sinema by 20 points. The general election is currently seen as a toss-up on the expectation that the more mainstream McSally will win the nomination.
Florida: Like Arizona, this race is also seen as a toss-up. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is seeking a 4th term. He has drawn a formidable challenger in Gov. Rick Scott who cannot seek a 3rd term due to term limits. The poll has Scott with a 46% to 41% lead over Nelson.
The New York Times reported that "The Supreme Court declined on Monday to address the central questions in two closely watched challenges to partisan gerrymandering, putting off for another time a ruling on the constitutionality of voting districts designed by legislatures to amplify one party’s political power."
The two cases in question were related to Wisconsin's redistricting plan as well as single congressional district in Maryland. As the Court had agreed to take on both cases, there was some expectation that it was ready to rule on this issue.
Barring any subsequent rulings on this topic, districts will next be redrawn after the 2020 Census, and will be first used in the 2022 Midterm elections.
There are currently seven vacancies in Congress. The next special election will be on June 30 in Texas' 27th congressional district. This will fill the seat of Republican Blake Farenthold, who resigned in April.
We've added a new way to create or update your 2018 forecast on the Senate Interactive Map. Until now, the only option was to click or tap a state repeatedly until arriving at the desired rating. This can be a bit cumbersome if you are building a map with all seven available ratings.
The new Color Chooser allows you to select a color/rating such that only one click is necessary on a race to get the desired rating. Check it out in the short video below.
Hours after President Trump tweeted that "he is better off in Argentina"*, Rep. Mark Sanford of South Carolina became the 2nd member of Congress to lose a primary for reelection in 2018. Overall, it was a good night for Trump-style candidates. Corey Stewart won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Virginia and Danny Tarkanian won in Nevada's 3rd congressional district. Tarkanian had been endorsed by Trump after he agreed to drop his challenge to Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada's U.S. Senate primary.
Full results from Tuesday's five primaries can be found here; select a state at the top of the page for details.
Five states are holding primaries today. A couple of the key races are highlighted below. Click or tap a state name for results from The New York Times. All times are Eastern.
Virginia: Polls close at 7:00 PM. There's a three-way battle for the Republican Senate nomination. Regardless of who wins, incumbent Tim Kaine is likely to be reelected in November. In the House, six Democrats are vying to take on GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock in a swing district near Washington, D.C.
South Carolina: Polls also close at 7:00 PM. Incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster, who took over when Nikki Haley became U.N. Ambassador, faces four opponents as he seeks the nomination for his first full term. McMaster has been ahead in recent polling, but seems likely to fall short of the 50% required to avoid a runoff. Whomever ultimately wins the nomination will be favored in the fall. The 1st congressional district may also prove interesting. President Trump has endorsed state Rep. Katie Arrington over incumbent Mark Sanford, who he said would be "better off in Argentina" in a Tuesday afternoon tweet.
Five states are holding primaries Tuesday. The poll closing times are listed in the table below, along with the number of congressional districts in the state - all are up for election in November - and whether there is a Senate and/or gubernatorial election in 2018.
If you live in one of these states, click or tap the name to find your polling location.
1 All times Eastern 2 Percentage must be exceeded to avoid runoff; date of runoff election 3 There is a lot of local flexibility in poll closing times. This is the latest time for most locations. If you are in North Dakota, check here for your polling place and hours.
Maine: Ranked-Choice Voting
Tuesday will see voters in Maine becoming the first in the nation to use ranked-choice voting (RCV) for statewide and congressional elections. It will apply to primary races with three or more candidates on the ballot. In those cases, voters will be able to rank as many of the candidates as they want in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority of first-place votes, the candidate who receives the fewest of these is eliminated. The ballots that chose the now-eliminated candidate first are recounted, with each voter's second choice being added to the first-round totals. If this puts someone over 50%, we have a winner. If not, there are additional rounds of allocation until one candidate achieves a majority of the votes counted in that round.
Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison entered the race for Minnesota attorney general Tuesday. It was the final day candidates could file. Ellison will forego running for a 7th term in the U.S. House, a race he would have been an overwhelming favorite to win.
Ellison's Minneapolis-area district is safely Democratic. He won reelection in 2016 by a 47% margin, while Hillary Clinton won here by 55%. It is the 39th most Democratic district in the country as measured by the Cook Political Report PVI.
