Based on preliminary popular vote totals, the 2016 presidential election saw a significantly larger number of states decided by a margin of 5% or less than in 2012, when only four states met that criteria. Four of these states were within 1%, including Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The four states meeting the criteria in 2012 were Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. While the latter two were again within 5% in 2016, Ohio and Virginia were decided by between 5 and 10%.
Donald Trump remains on track to win Michigan's 16 electoral votes, but the state won't officially certify the result until the end of November. At present, Trump leads by 0.3% or about 11,600 votes out of about 4.8 million votes counted.
The Detroit News reports: While there is a possibility Clinton could narrow the gap as county clerks and canvassing boards double check their results and report them to the Board of State Canvassers, the process is unlikely to change the outcome.
“In every election, small vote shifts occur during the canvassing process but nothing to the degree of having a 13,000-vote margin overturned,” said Secretary of State Office spokesman Fred Woodhams.
We'll continue to show Michigan in a lighter red on our 2016 electoral map, until the results are certified.
The Associated Press has declared Hillary Clinton the winner in New Hampshire, bringing her total to 232 electoral votes. President-elect Donald Trump has 290 electoral votes, with Michigan still not called.
As of late Monday, Trump led Michigan by 0.3%. That's about 12,000 votes out of 4.8 million cast in the state. We believe the AP is waiting to declare a winner in Michigan pending the possibility of a recount.
Trump is likely to win the state, which would bring his final total to 306, pending the official vote of Electors on December 19th. To that end, we show Michigan in a lighter red in our election results map:
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Defying almost all predictions, Donald J. Trump was elected president of the United States on Tuesday. Trump, who has never held political office, expanded the electoral map into states Republicans have not won for a generation or more.
Trump won large electoral prizes in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, neither of which has voted Republican since the 1980s. He took Ohio, which again proved an election bellwether. Trump also won an electoral vote in Maine, the first time that state has split its four votes.
The current map:
As of Wednesday morning, four states were uncalled. Clinton won Minnesota; that state has not voted for a Republican since 1972. As of Wednesday afternoon, Arizona looked likely to go to Trump, while Michigan and New Hampshire were virtually tied. In Michigan, Trump leads by about 0.3%, in New Hampshire it is Clinton by 0.2%. If those hold, the final map would show Trump 306, Clinton 232.
Thursday Night: Trump is declared the winner in Arizona, bringing him to 290 electoral votes. New Hampshire and Michigan remain too close to call. Only 0.3% separates Trump and Clinton in those two states. Clinton leads by that amount in New Hampshire, while Trump is ahead in Michigan.
Late Saturday: Preliminary final vote counts would indicate a Trump win in Michigan, with Clinton winning New Hampshire. However, those states have not yet been called by the Associated Press. The margins are very close, leaving open the possibility of a recount. For now, we've updated the map to award the states, but using a lighter red/blue shade to reflect this uncertainty.
Republicans Retain Control of Congress
Donald Trump will enjoy a majority in both houses of Congress. At this point, Republicans will have at least 51 seats in the new Senate. The race in New Hampshire remains too close to call. The election in Louisiana will go to a run-off on December 10th.
In the House, the current tally is 238 Republicans, 193 Democrats, with two California races uncalled, including one involving 8-term incumbent Darrell Issa. The California Republican has a small lead, while his Democratic colleague in District 7 also has a small lead. The other two races, in Louisiana, will go to run-off in December; both are expected to remain in GOP hands.
Originally posted 11/9/2016 in the morning; latest update 11/12 7:30AM.
Here's where we'll be updating results on 270toWin tonight:
President: As states are called, they'll appear in the table in the bottom half of the page. The electoral vote count will change, along with an updated probability of victory for Clinton and Trump and other stats. The electoral map on the top half of the page will also fill in.
We'll also be updating a map in the iPad App. Go to The Library > 2016 Projections. The first map there is the Election Night Map. Tap the Refresh button to see the latest state results.
Senate: Democrats need to gain 4 (if Clinton wins) or 5 to take control. The map will fill in as states are called; use the Forecast button to see expectations for the uncalled races. The table to the right will summarize the results, making it easier to see who is on track to control the Senate. Any party gains will be displayed in the table under the map.
House: Same concept as the Senate map; Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take control. The table below the map shows the most competitive races; click any state to see all the results for that state.
Governor: Only 12 gubernatorial elections this year; we'll fill in the map as those results are known.
The home page interactive electoral map will not be updated tonight. It remains available for you to create and share your own forecasts. For those looking for the Road to 270 combinations calculator, it is now available as a standalone version. There's also a related calculator for tie combinations.
Finally, here's a list of poll closing times. This is a guide for when results will begin to be reported by the media, not when your particular polling place may be open.
In our final look at the electoral projections, there remains quite a bit of variability in opinion across the experts we've been following. Aside from CNN, all have Clinton across 270 electoral votes, although most have her well short of that total when totaling the states that are the most secure (safe + likely ratings). Most of the forecasts have Clinton leading in states with either 274 or 322 electoral votes. The main difference seems to be expectations for Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire: some have those lean Clinton, others still see them as toss-ups.
Aggregating the forecasts, and then placing them in categories, we end up with this consensus map. Note that these aren't averages. For example, only states called 'safe' by 14 or 15 pundits are shown in the darkest color below.
In the final map here, we show all the toss-ups assigned to the candidate ahead when all the forecasts are aggregated. The pundits have a slight preference for Clinton to win all three of Florida, New Hampshire and North Carolina, with Trump seen as prevailing in Ohio. The closest to a coin flip is Maine's 2nd Congressional District; Trump will eke that out if the consensus is correct.
The final projection from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is a Clinton victory with 322 electoral votes vs. 216 for Donald Trump. This is an increase of 29 over their prior forecast - as Florida moved to lean Clinton from toss-up. At the same time, however, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire were moved to the lean category from likely. As a result, Clinton's favored total (safe + likely) has dropped below 270. Texas was returned to safe Republican.
The accompanying Senate forecast projects a 50-50 tie in that body. If the prediction for a Clinton presidency is correct, that would give Democrats control of the Senate in January. In the House, Democrats are projected to gain 13 seats, well short of the 30 the party would need to gain control.
The NBC Political Unit's final battleground map projects Hillary Clinton at 274 electoral votes, four more than the 270 required to be elected president. Their forecast is little changed from the prior week. Utah was moved from toss-up to lean Trump and Georgia from lean Trump back to toss-up. Recent polling supports these changes. McMullin's momentum seems to have slowed in Utah, while the latest Georgia poll conducted for NBC showed just a one-point Trump lead.