Election News

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters. 

Hillary Clinton now averages 293 electoral votes, down 13 from last Wednesday. Donald Trump is at 183, a gain of four. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.

In terms of the polling electoral map, there has been little change in where states fall (toss-up, leaning etc.)  However, Trump has regained a very small lead in Arizona, moving it to red in our 'no-tossups' polling map (below). This map shows which candidate is ahead in the polling average, regardless of how large or small that lead is.

It will likely be several days before we know if or how Friday's FBI October Surprise will change electoral map estimates for an election that is now just 10 days away.

It is worth noting that there is a significant difference between the forecasts that have not been updated in the past five days vs. those that have. The more recent forecasts put Clinton at 324 electoral votes (vs. 281 in the older projections). Trump's number is little changed, but we've seen about 20 of his electoral votes move out of the 'favored' category.  

Will the older forecasts 'catch up' when they are updated? Perhaps, but there has been some tightening in the state polls this week. Trump had a small lead in a Florida poll out yesterday and he has regained the lead in Ohio. New Hampshire has also trended closer. That's 51 competitive electoral votes in those three states. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.

While limited, polling in the Lone Star State has been pretty similar over the past several weeks, with most surveys showing a small, but consistent lead of about 3 points for Trump. This spread was seen again in today's U. Texas poll.

Trump now leads by 3.6% on average. While that spread keeps Texas a toss-up in the electoral map based on polls, the consistency of the polling - not to mention the state's voting history - would point to him having the advantage with just over 10 days to go until Election Day.

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Consensus Pundit Map: This is the composite Election Day forecast of 15 organizations. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least 13 pundits are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue.  

Hillary Clinton's average lead has increased by 12 since Wednesday, with Clinton up four to 304, while Donald Trump dropped 8 to 179. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.

Since our last update on October 13th, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's average total electoral votes are little changed. Clinton is at 300, Trump 187. Within Trump's average, however, we are beginning to see an erosion in states where the Republican nominee is favored vs. those that are leaning in his direction. For example, a couple forecasters have moved Texas from favored to leaning. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.