Election News

270toWin Crowdsourced Senate Forecast

November 4, 2014

If 270toWin voters are correct, Republicans will control the Senate with 52 seats, Democrats will have 47 and a third independent will join the body after this year's elections.

Results are based on about 1,500 valid entries to our prediction contest.  Prizes will go to some of those with the best predictions, with the goal being to encourage people to vote based on who they think will win, as opposed to their own personal preferences.

The first image below shows the projected winner in each race; the 2nd the percentage distribution. The closer races in the polls (AK, CO, GA, IA) trended more Republican in recent days. Kansas was the closest race, with Greg Orman remaining slightly ahead in the end.

While this forecast says Georgia and Louisiana will ultimately go Republican, it is worth noting where we'll be after Election Day. If there are runoffs in both Georgia (possible) and Louisiana (very likely), and no decision by Greg Orman on party affiliation, Republicans would have 50 seats heading into the Louisiana runoff, one short of the number needed to officially control the Senate.     

 

 

 



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Late Morning Update on Crowdsourced Senate Forecast

November 3, 2014

Republicans will control the Senate with 52 seats, Democrats will have 47 and a third Independent will join the body based on the current forecast of 270toWin users.  

This map is based on about 1,500 valid submissions over the last 6 days through late morning Monday.  Predictions added by midnight tonight will show up in the final results to be published early Tuesday.

The first image below shows the projected winner by state; the 2nd the percentage distribution. The closer states (AK, CO, GA, IA) have been trending Republican in recent days. Kansas continues to be pretty consistent at around 60% for Greg Orman.

While this forecast says Georgia and Louisiana will ultimately go Republican, it is worth noting where we'll be after Election Day. If there are runoffs in both Georgia (possible) and Louisiana (very likely), and no decision by Greg Orman on party affiliation, Republicans would have 50 seats heading into the Louisiana runoff, one short of the number needed to officially control the Senate.     

 

 

 


No Suspense: We Already Know the Party Winners for 77 House Seats

October 31, 2014

Almost 1/5 of the 435 House seats will go uncontested between the two major parties this November based on an analysis by 270toWin. (Underlying data here) 41 are held by Democrats, 36 by Republicans. These seats fall into 3 categories:

  • Uncontested: 32 seats (16 Democrat, 16 Republican) are completely uncontested. This includes 7 of Georgia's 14 Districts and 6 of the 9 in Massachusetts. The incumbent is running in 30 of these races: Phil Gingrey (R) GA-11 opted to run for Senate, while Ralph Hall (R) TX-4 was defeated in his party's primary.
  • No Major Party Opposition: 37 seats (20 Democrat, 17 Republican) pit one major party against one or more 3rd party or independent candidates. While acknowledging that the election hasn't yet occurred, none of these appear to be competitive races. (Two of these districts, LA-2 and LA-3 have multiple candidates from the major party as well as 3rd party/independent opposition, owing to the open primary that will take place on Election Day). 
  • Both Candidates From Same Party: 8 seats (5 Democrat, 3 Republican). 7 of these are from California, 1 from Washington. These states hold 'top two' primaries, where the top two vote getters advance to the general election, regardless of party. 

Data for this review was gathered from and is courtesy of The Green Papers and Wikipedia. If we've missed anything, please let us know.


Rhode Island Primary Results

September 10, 2014

The Rhode Island nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on September 9.   

Governor:  State Treasurer Gina Raimondo defeated Providence Mayor Angel Taveras and Clay Pell to win the Democratic primary.  On the Republican side, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung defeated Ken Block.   This race, to fill the seat of the retiring Lincoln Chafee, leans Democratic as we look toward November, although no general election polling is yet available.

Senate:  Incumbent Jack Reed (D) will meet Marketing Consultant Mark Zaccaria in November; both won uncontested primaries.   Reed is a heavy favorite to be reelected; our Senate simulator currently shows a a <99% probability.

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Both Congressional districts are safely Democratic.

To see the current roster of Rhode Island elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


New Hampshire Primary Results

September 10, 2014

The New Hampshire nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on September 9.   

Governor:  Incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) swatted away token primary opposition.  In November, she will face off against businessman Walt Havenstein who held off Andrew Hemingway to win the Republican nomination.   Hassan has led by over 20 points in early polling.  While this will likely shrink as Republicans coalesce around their nominee, she is likely to win reelection in November.

Senate:  As expected, former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown won the Republican nomination, getting approximately 50% of the vote in the primary.   Incumbent Jeanne Shaheen was unopposed on the Democratic side.   Shaheen has led Brown in most polling to date and our Senate simulator currently gives her a 95% chance of being reelected.

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Both of New Hampshire's congressional districts, held by Democrats in their first term, are seen as competitive this November

NH-01: Incumbent Carol Shea-Porter ran unopposed.  She will meet former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who held off Dan Innis for the Republican nomination.  The district includes the southeastern part of the state.

NH-02:  Incumbent Ann Kuster also ran unopposed.   State Representative Marilinda Garcia won her primary fairly easily.

To see the current roster of New Hampshire elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


Massachusetts Primary Results

September 10, 2014

The Massachusetts nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on September 9.   

Governor:  Attorney General Martha Coakley won by 6 points in the Democratic primary, a result that was much closer than the polls indicated.  She will meet Republican Charlie Baker in November. Coakley is favored to win by the political pros, but some recent polls show the race to be pretty competitive.    Democrats may be nervous about a repeat of 2010, when Coakley led early in a Senate campaign she ultimately lost against Scott Brown.

Senate:  Incumbent Ed Markey (D) will meet Selectman Brian Herr in November; both won uncontested primaries.   Markey is a heavy favorite to be reelected; our Senate simulator currently shows a 97% probability.

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Massachusetts nine congressional districts are all held by Democrats.   Aside from District 6, all these seats are safe, and all incumbents are expected to be reelected.

MA-06: Nine term incumbent John Tierney was ousted by businessman Seth Moulton for this district encompassing northeastern Massachusetts.   Tierney becomes the first MA Democratic incumbent to lose a primary in 22 years. Tierney was weakened politically by his wife's conviction on federal tax charges in 2010.  Moultion will face former State Senator Richard Tisei in November.   This race is seem as a toss-up, perhaps leaning Democratic.   Interestingly, Moulton's win probably increases the likelihood that Democrats will hold the seat.

To see the current roster of Massachsuetts elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


Delaware Senate Primary Results

September 10, 2014

Delaware Republicans nominated businessman Kevin Wade to face incumbent Chris Coons this November.    Coons is a prohibitive favorite to be reelected in this deeply blue state.   In the House, incumbent Democrat John Carney will meet Rose Izzo in the battle for the state's single congressional district.   Carney is expected to easily win a third term.


New York Primary Results

September 10, 2014

As expected, incumbent Andrew Cuomo won renomination, defeating Zephyr Teachout with about 62% of the vote to her 34%.   While a blowout at first glance, the result was far narrower than anticipated.   Teachout won the vote in some 20 counties, including Albany - home to the state capitol.    Cuomo should win reelection against Republican Rob Astorino this November.

Nominees for the Congressional races for the state's 27 districts had previously been chosen.  Approxmiately 1/4 of these elections should be competitive in November.   The seats of 17 Democrats and 3 Republicans are seen as safe.    To review these races, or to locate elected officials for any address in the country, check out our Who Represents Me feature.


Florida Primary Results

August 27, 2014

 The Florida nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on August 26.   Results for races expected to be competitive in November are summarized below.

Governor:  As expected incumbent Rick Scott and former governor Charlie Crist easily dispatched their primary opponents, setting the stage for one of the most expensive election battles ever seen. Reports are that the Scott campaign (and supporters) will spend upwards of $100 million to get the governor re-elected.  Polling shows the race to be a toss-up.  

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Of Florida's 27 congressional districts, only three are seen as competitive this November.   Thank you, gerrymandering!

FL-02: Second term incumbent Republican Steve Southerland will face Gwen Graham in November; both ran unopposed in the primary. The district encompasses the eastern half of the Florida panhandle, including Tallahassee. The race is seen as a toss-up.

FL-18:  First term incumbent Democratic Patrick Murphy ran unopposed.  He will meet Carl Domino, who emerged victorious from a six-way primary.  This district is located in the southeastern part of the state, from south of Vero Beach to the northern part of the Palm Beach area.   Congressman Murphy is slightly favored to win re-election.

FL-26: This District, new after the 2010 Census reapportionment includes extreme South Florida, including southwestern parts of Miami area and the Florida Keys   Incumbent Democrat Joe Garcia ran unopposed and will meet Carlos Curbelo who beat four opponents in the Republican primary.

All other incumbents were renominated and are expected to prevail in November.

To see the current roster of Florida elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.


Arizona Primary Results

August 27, 2014

 

The Arizona nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on August 26.   Results for races expected to be competitive in November are summarized below.

Governor:  The six-way Republican primary was won by State Treasurer Doug Ducey.  He will face Democrat Fred DuVal, who ran unopposed.  Incumbent Jan Brewer is ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits.  Ducey is favored by the pundits, although polling to-date has been very close.   

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Of Arizona's 9 congressional districts,  three are seen as competitive this November:

AZ-01: Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick (D) ran unopposed.  She will meet either Andy Tobin or Gary Kiehne in November.  As of this morning, the race was too close to call, with Tobin leading by about 300 votes.   The race is seen as a toss-up.  The District encompasses most of the eastern half of the state, and is the 10th largest in geographic area in the United States.

AZ-02:  As in District 1, an incumbent Democrat is in a tight race for re-election.   Ron Barber ran unopposed and will meet retired Air Force Colonel Martha McSally in November.  McSally bested two opponents in the Republican primary.    This district includes the parts of eastern Arizona not covered by the 1st district, as well as much of the Tucson area.

AZ-09: This District, new after the 2010 Census reapportionment includes portions of the Phoenix metro area.   Incumbent Democrat Kyrsten Sinema ran unopposed.  She is a slight favorite against Republican challenger Wendy Rogers, who defeated Andrew Walter in the Republican primary.

The safely Democratic 7th District held a primary to nominate a replacement for 12 term incumbent Ed Pastor.   It was won by former State Representative Ruben Gallego.

To see the current roster of Arizona elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.



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