The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
In a major upset, five-term incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton was defeated by restaurateur Lauren Boebert in the GOP primary for Colorado's 3rd congressional district.
Boebert will meet Democrat Diane Bush in November. Bush was the party's nominee in 2018, losing to Tipton by about 8%. While Boebert will start the race as the favorite in this GOP-leaning district on the state's Western Slope, her positions may create an opening for Democrats. Sabato's Crystal Ball changed its rating of the race from Likely to Leans Republican after Boebert became the nominee.
Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah hold downballot primaries Tuesday. There are a handful of interesting races including the GOP gubernatorial primary in Utah and the Democratic Senate primary in Colorado. For the House, we'll be watching the Republican primaries in OK-4 and UT-4.
Polls Close (Eastern Time)
Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.
8:00 PM
Oklahoma
9:00 PM
Colorado
10:00 PM
Utah
Democratic Delegate Count
All three states on the calendar Tuesday held their presidential primaries in March. The table below shows last week's available delegates (274 from New York + 54 from Kentucky) as many of those have not yet been allocated as ballots continue to be counted. Total delegates are displayed as well.
Joe Biden long ago became the presumptive nominee. However, once he reaches 2,375 delegates, he will have a majority of the projected 4,749 total Democratic delegate votes. By crossing this threshold, all delegates (pledged and super/automatic) will be able to participate in the roll call that nominates the former vice president.
Tuesday should bring a resolution to the highly competitive Democratic primary for Senate in Kentucky. Results from the state's two largest counties, Jefferson (Louisville) and Fayette (Lexington) will be released, along with any remaining absentee ballots, which had to be postmarked by June 23 (primary day) and received no later than June 27 to be counted. Complete election results are expected shortly after 6:00 PM ET.
Amy McGrath, a former fighter pilot, had long been the frontrunner in this race. However, Charles Booker, a state representative made a late run, staking out more progressive policy positions. The debate over racial injustice has also shaken up this primary: Breonna Taylor was killed by police in Louisville earlier this year. Booker, 35, is the youngest black lawmaker in the Kentucky House.
The pandemic caused the primary to be rescheduled from May 19, and turned it into a largely mail-in contest. While the delay helped Booker in that his campaign only caught fire in the closing weeks, the mail-in component likely helped McGrath as many cast their ballots earlier in the process.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
Rep. Eliot Engel has lost his primary to progressive political newcomer Jamaal Bowman. As of about 1:30 PM Wednesday afternoon, Bowman held a 62% to 35% advantage over the 16-term incumbent.
Our election results partner, Decision Desk HQ, noted that Bowman took an unexpectedly large lead in the early and Election Day voting and is ahead in the portion of both counties (Bronx and Westchester) that make up the district. While absentee ballots remain to be counted, the margin Engel would need is such that the call for Bowman can be made.
Republican State Sen. Chris Jacobs won the special election in New York's 27th congressional district Tuesday. The seat has been vacant since last October, when former Rep. Chris Collins resigned, pleading guilty to insider trading charges that same day.
Under indictment at the time of the 2018 midterms, Collins won reelection by less than 0.5% over Democrat Nate McMurray, who was again the party's nominee Tuesday. The special election outcome, with Jacobs up by nearly 40% at the time of this writing, more closely reflects the conservative lean of the district. Donald Trump won here by 25% in 2016.
New York and Kentucky hold their rescheduled presidential primaries Tuesday. We'll be watching to see if Joe Biden can cross another delegate threshold. Those two states, as well as Virginia also hold their congressional primaries. There's also a special election in New York for a vacant congressional seat. Finally, there are two runoff U.S. House primaries, one each in Mississippi and North Carolina.
The large vote-by-mail nature of these elections will cause delays in the ability to call some competitive races. This will be particularly true in Kentucky and New York, where we may need to wait a week or more to find out the winners of some important primaries.
Polls Close (Eastern Time)
Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.
6:00 PM
Kentucky (ET)
7:00 PM
Kentucky (CT), Virginia
7:30 PM
NC-11
8:00 PM
MS-02
9:00 PM
New York
Democratic Delegate Count
New York has 274 pledged delegates available Tuesday. That's more than any state except California. Kentucky adds 54 more for a total of 328. Joe Biden starts the day at 2,144. If he reaches 2,376,11This number may change slightly depending on the final count of superdelegate votes. which seems likely, he will have amassed pledged delegates totaling more than 50% of ALL Democratic delegates (pledged + superdelegates) available this year. As a result, superdelegates will be allowed to participate in the roll call vote at the convention.
President: There are 54 pledged delegates available in the Democratic presidential primary.
Senate: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is seeking a 7th term this year. A member since January, 1985, he currently has the 3rd longest tenure in the U.S. Senate.22Democrat Patrick Leahy of Vermont (1975) has the most seniority, followed by Republican Chuck Grassley of Iowa (1981). McConnell has nominal primary opposition.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
