2022 Governor Elections: Consensus Forecast

As of October 1, 2022

A consensus outlook for the 2022 elections for governor based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political ReportInside Elections, Split Ticket, and FiveThirtyEight. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least four of these five forecasters are shown in the darkest shade.

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 gubernatorial forecast.

October 1: Colorado moves from Likely to Safe Democratic; Oregon from Tilts Democratic to Toss-up.

Current

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*no 2022 election

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up  *
           
       

As of Oct. 1, 2022 Details >>

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Governor Elections

Current 22 28
Consensus Forecast 14 17 5
Interactive Map Above

Upcoming Elections

2022 2023 2024^ 2025
16 2 3 1
20 1 6 1

^Excludes NH & VT: Next election is 2022 (two-year terms)

State Incumbent Party Since Term Consensus
AK Mike Dunleavy
2018 1st
Les Gara
Mike Dunleavy*
Charlie Pierce
Bill Walker
AZ Doug Ducey
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Katie Hobbs
Kari Lake
CT Ned Lamont
2019 1st
Ned Lamont*
Bob Stefanowski
DE John Carney
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
FL Ron DeSantis
2019 1st
Charlie Crist
Ron DeSantis*
GA Brian Kemp
2019 1st
Stacey Abrams
Brian Kemp*
IN Eric Holcomb
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
KS Laura Kelly
2019 1st
Laura Kelly*
Derek Schmidt
KY Andy Beshear
2019 1st
LA John Bel Edwards
2016 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2023 due to term limits.
MA Charlie Baker
2015 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Maura Healey
Geoff Diehl
MD Larry Hogan
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Wes Moore
Dan Cox
ME Janet Mills
2019 1st
Janet Mills*
Paul LePage
MI Gretchen Whitmer
2019 1st
Gretchen Whitmer*
Tudor Dixon
MN Tim Walz
2019 1st
Tim Walz*
Scott Jensen
MO Mike Parson
2018 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
MS Tate Reeves
2020 1st
MT Greg Gianforte
2021 1st
NC Roy Cooper
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
ND Doug Burgum
2016 2nd
NJ Phil Murphy
2018 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2025 due to term limits.
NM Michelle Lujan Grisham
2019 1st
Michelle Lujan Grisham*
Mark Ronchetti
NV Stephen Sisolak
2019 1st
Steve Sisolak*
Joe Lombardo
OR Kate Brown
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Tina Kotek
Christine Drazan
Betsy Johnson
PA Tom Wolf
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Josh Shapiro
Doug Mastriano
TX Greg Abbott
2015 2nd
Beto O'Rourke
Greg Abbott*
UT Spencer Cox
2021 1st
VA Glenn Youngkin
2022 1st
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2025 due to term limits.
WA Jay Inslee
2013 3rd
WI Tony Evers
2019 1st
Tony Evers*
Tim Michels
WV Jim Justice
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits.
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AL Kay Ivey
2017 2nd
Yolanda Flowers
Kay Ivey*
AR Asa Hutchinson
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Chris Jones
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
CA Gavin Newsom
2019 1st
Gavin Newsom*
Brian Dahle
CO Jared Polis
2019 1st
Jared Polis*
Heidi Ganahl
HI David Ige
2014 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Josh Green
Duke Aiona
IA Kim Reynolds
2017 2nd
Deidre DeJear
Kim Reynolds*
ID Brad Little
2019 1st
Stephen Heidt
Brad Little*
IL J.B. Pritzker
2019 1st
J.B. Pritzker*
Darren Bailey
NE Pete Ricketts
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2022 due to term limits.
Carol Blood
Jim Pillen
NH Chris Sununu
2017 3rd
Thomas Sherman
Chris Sununu*
NY Kathy Hochul
2021 1st
Kathy Hochul*
Lee Zeldin
OH Mike DeWine
2019 1st
Nan Whaley
Mike DeWine*
OK Kevin Stitt
2019 1st
Joy Hofmeister
Kevin Stitt*
RI Daniel McKee
2021 1st
Daniel McKee*
Ashley Kalus
SC Henry McMaster
2017 2nd
Joe Cunningham
Henry McMaster*
SD Kristi Noem
2019 1st
Jamie Smith
Kristi Noem*
TN Bill Lee
2019 1st
Jason Martin
Bill Lee*
VT Phil Scott
2017 3rd
Brenda Siegel
Phil Scott*
WY Mark Gordon
2019 1st
Theresa Livingston
Mark Gordon*