2021-22 Governor Elections: Consensus Forecast

As of October 22, 2021

A consensus outlook for the 2021-22 elections for governor based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all three of these forecasters are shown in the darkest shade.

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2021-22 gubernatorial forecast.

October 22: Virginia moves from Lean Democratic to Toss-up.

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*no 2021-22 election

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up
         
       

As of Oct. 22, 2021 Details >>

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Governor Elections

Current 23 27
Consensus Forecast 20 24 6
Interactive Map Above

Upcoming Elections

2021 2022 2023 2024^
2 16 2 3
0 20 1 6

^Excludes NH & VT: Next election is 2022 (two-year terms)

State Incumbent Party Since Term Consensus
AK Mike Dunleavy
2018 1st
AZ Doug Ducey
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
CO Jared Polis
2019 1st
CT Ned Lamont
2019 1st
FL Ron DeSantis
2019 1st
GA Brian Kemp
2019 1st
IA Kim Reynolds
2017 2nd
IL J.B. Pritzker
2019 1st
KS Laura Kelly
2019 1st
MA Charlie Baker
2015 2nd
MD Larry Hogan
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
ME Janet Mills
2019 1st
MI Gretchen Whitmer
2019 1st
MN Tim Walz
2019 1st
NH Chris Sununu
2017 3rd
NJ Phil Murphy
2018 1st
NM Michelle Lujan Grisham
2019 1st
NV Stephen Sisolak
2019 1st
NY Kathy Hochul
2021 1st
OH Mike DeWine
2019 1st
OR Kate Brown
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
PA Tom Wolf
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
RI Daniel McKee
2021 1st
SC Henry McMaster
2017 2nd
TX Greg Abbott
2015 2nd
VA Ralph Northam
2018 1st
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
VT Phil Scott
2017 3rd
WI Tony Evers
2019 1st
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AL Kay Ivey
2017 2nd
AR Asa Hutchinson
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
CA Gavin Newsom
2019 1st
Newsom faces a recall election on September 14
DE John Carney
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
HI David Ige
2014 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
ID Brad Little
2019 1st
IN Eric Holcomb
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
KY Andy Beshear
2019 1st
LA John Bel Edwards
2016 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
MO Mike Parson
2018 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
MS Tate Reeves
2020 1st
MT Greg Gianforte
2021 1st
NC Roy Cooper
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
ND Doug Burgum
2016 2nd
NE Pete Ricketts
2015 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
OK Kevin Stitt
2019 1st
SD Kristi Noem
2019 1st
TN Bill Lee
2019 1st
UT Spencer Cox
2021 1st
WA Jay Inslee
2013 3rd
WV Jim Justice
2017 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in due to term limits.
WY Mark Gordon
2019 1st