September 10, 2021
California Gov. Gavin Newsom appears to be gaining momentum heading into Tuesday's recall election. In a UC Berkeley poll released Friday, likely voters oppose recall by 60% to 38.5%. Newsom has been steadily gaining support since mid-August, when the keep/recall vote was nearly tied. Keep has led remove by double-digits in every poll released this month; the fivethirtyeight average is 56% to 41%.
In addition to the recall question, the ballot includes 46 candidates to take Newsom's spot should he be recalled. The UC Berkeley poll found conservative radio host Larry Elder well ahead of the field, with 38% support. However, the actual result for of this vote is moot should Newsom not be recalled.
Voting has been underway for several weeks, as all registered voters in the state were sent a ballot by mail. In-person early voting began September 4. On Election Day, polls close at 8:00 PM Pacific Time (11:00 PM Eastern). Visit 270toWin Tuesday night for live results.
Background on the recall election >>