Senate Polling Averages as of October 24
By 270toWin Staff
October 24, 2022, 3:25 PM ET
The information on this page is current as of 3:00 PM Eastern Time on October 24. Select a state in the table to see the latest average as well as individual poll detail.
Some forecasters moved the Iowa and Washington Senate races out of the 'safe' category after the release of fresh polling data. There have been no other changes to the consensus forecast; 22 of this year's 35 U.S. Senate seats up for election are seen as safe for the incumbent party. That includes 14 of 21 GOP-held seats, and nine of 8 held by Democrats. Assuming those play out as expected, Democrats1 1Includes independents in Maine and Vermont that caucus with the party. will hold 44 seats, Republicans 43.
The other 13 seats feature varying levels of competitiveness, according to the consensus. The table below lists those states, ordered by the 270toWin polling average margin between the two major party candidates.
| State | ^ | Democrat | Average | Republican | Average | Margin | Consensus |
| Nevada | Cortez Masto* | 45.8% | Laxalt | 46.8% | 1.0% | Toss-up | |
| Ohio | Ryan | 44.6% | Vance | 45.8% | 1.2% | Leans R | |
| North Carolina | Beasley | 43.0% | Budd | 45.2% | 2.2% | Leans R | |
| Pennsylvania | Fetterman | 47.6% | Oz | 45.0% | 2.6% | Tilts D | |
| Georgia | Warnock* | 47.8% | Walker | 45.0% | 2.8% | Toss-up | |
| Wisconsin | Barnes | 47.0% | Johnson* | 50.2% | 3.2% | Leans R | |
| Arizona | Kelly* | 45.6% | Masters | 41.2% | 3.4% | Leans D | |
| Florida | Demings | 42.3% | Rubio* | 48.3% | 6.0% | Likely R | |
| New Hampshire | Hassan* | 49.8% | Bolduc | 43.4% | 6.4% | Leans D | |
| Washington | Murray* | 51.2% | Smiley | 41.8% | 9.3% | Likely D | |
| Iowa | Franken | 40.3% | Grassley* | 49.7% | 9.4% | Likely R | |
| Utah | McMullin1 | 34.5% | Lee* | 44.5% | 10.0% | Likely R | |
| Colorado | Bennet* | 49.6% | O'Dea | 38.8% | 10.8% | Likely D |
^ Current party holding the seat * Incumbent
1In lieu of nominating a candidate, Democrats in Utah have endorsed independent Evan McMullin.
