Rep. Pete Olson of Texas said Thursday that he will not run for reelection in 2020. The announcement comes one day after a similar one by fellow GOP Rep. Paul Mitchell of Michigan.
Texas's 22nd district is largely suburban, and encompasses much of the southern portion of the Houston metropolitan area. After Olson narrowly won reelection in 2018, this was already expected to be a competitive district in 2020. The absence of an incumbent will make it more so. Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed its rating from 'Leans Republican' to 'Toss-up'.
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the Democratic field in Ohio, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. Biden also leads President Trump in the general election, with other match-ups essentially even.
Quinnipiac finds Biden well out in front with 31% support. Sens. Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are all bunched at 13-14%, with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg receiving 6% of the vote. Nobody else received more than 1%. If this poll were to be exactly right (it won't be1), and if all the delegates were allocated based on the statewide vote (they aren't2), Biden would receive all of the states' 136 pledged delegates. However, it is an interesting example of how Democratic proportional allocation can become winner-take-all when only one candidate reaches the 15% threshold.
Biden leads Trump by a 50-42% margin in the Quinnipiac poll. Other tested match-ups (Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg and Sen. Cory Booker) were dead heats. Trump won the state by 8% in 2016. Ohio has sided with the winner of each presidential election since 1960, when it chose Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy.
1Ohio's primary is on March 17, two weeks after Super Tuesday. Approximately 50% of the party's pledged delegates will be allocated prior to this date. The race will be different by then, with a much smaller field remaining.
2Of the state's 136 pledged delegates, 47 of them are based on the statewide vote, with the remaining 89 allocated based on the individual vote in each of the state's 16 congressional districts. The 15% threshold applies individually to each of these jurisdictions.
Mitchell represents the state's 10th district, a conservative, mostly rural area north of metro Detroit. Donald Trump won here by 32% over Hillary Clinton in 2016, his largest margin of victory in a state that provided the closest statewide result in that election. Trump won Michigan by just 0.23%.
Mitchell is the 9th* current House member to announce they will not run for reelection in 2020. Select the map below for more information.
The Democratic National Committee has named the 20 candidates that have qualified for the next debate. The only change is that Montana Gov. Steve Bullock will replace Rep. Eric Swalwell of California, who left the race earlier this month.
As with the first debate in June, this one will be held over two nights, July 30 and 31. It will take place in Detroit and be hosted by CNN. That network will conduct a random drawing Thursday at 8:00 PM, to be broadcast live. No announcement has yet been made about whether the candidates will be divided into smaller groups, with a random drawing within each group. This was done in the June debate, with candidates first split into those polling over/under 2%.
Update: There will be 3 groups in the random drawing, divided by polling. The 10 polling the lowest will be split over two nights followed by splitting a group of 6 and then the top 4.
The First Draw will include 10 candidates: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan and author Marianne Williamson.
The Second Draw will include six candidates: New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke and businessman Andrew Yang.
The Final Draw will include four candidates: Former Vice President Joe Biden, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
The latest Change Research poll of California shows a lot of movement from their prior survey in late May. Sens. Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are separated by just three points, essentially tied given the poll's margin of error. Harris and Warren gained 8 and 10 points, respectively, from the prior poll. Sanders had a small decline in support.
The big loser in this poll is Joe Biden. The former vice president saw his support fall from 30% to 17%. He finds himself in 4th place. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg fell from 12% to 8% and remains in 5th place.
The Golden State has the nation's largest allocation of Democratic pledged delegates, currently estimated at 416. Based on this poll, at least the top four finishers would qualify* for delegates, having reached the required 15% threshold.
California will hold its 2020 primary on March 3 - Super Tuesday. This is significantly earlier in the calendar than the June date it has used in recent cycles. The 416 pledged delegates represent about 30% of those expected to be available that day.
* This is a very rough estimate that won't be correct even if this poll is exactly right. Most Democratic delegates are allocated by congressional district, with the distribution based on the vote in each district. This means, for example, Buttigieg could earn delegates by reaching 15% in one or more districts, even though he wouldn't qualify (in this scenario) for a share of the statewide delegates.
A Republican primary runoff is being held in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district on Tuesday, July 9. Polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern Time, with results available here after that. Reload the page for the latest:
NC-3 has been vacant since the death of GOP Rep. Walter Jones in February. In the party primaries in April, no Republican exceeded 30%, necessitating today's runoff. The top two finishers that advanced are physicians Joan Perry and Greg Murphy, who is also a state representative. Perry has received extensive support from Republican women, hoping to increase their numbers in Congress. All 13 current House GOP women have endorsed Perry.
The winner will face off against the Democratic nominee, former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas on September 10th. This is a conservative district and the GOP winner today will start out as a large favorite.
Activist Tom Steyer joined the crowded 2020 Democratic field Tuesday. His campaign indicated it would spend at least $100 million on the race, starting with TV ads in several early primary/caucus states.
The decision marks a reversal of Steyer's announcement in January that he would not seek the Democratic nomination in 2020. At the time, he said that he would continue his activism around the impeachment of President Trump.
California Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell has ended his long-shot 2020 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. Swalwell participated in the recent debate, where he challenged the frontrunner, former Vice President Joe Biden to "pass the torch". However, polling out both before and since the debate has indicated he was gaining little, if any traction in the crowded Democratic field. The four-term Bay Area congressman is expected to continue his career in the House, where he is a member of the Judiciary and Intelligence committees.
I want thank my supporters & friends, my staff, & my family for making this journey possible. I’ll never forget the people I met & lessons I learned while traveling around our great nation. Though our campaign is ending our mission to end gun violence is just beginning... pic.twitter.com/voEJRpYd2R
Sen. Kamala Harris' debate performance has yielded notable gains in a new Suffolk University poll of Democrats likely to attend the Iowa caucuses. Former vice president Joe Biden leads with 24%, followed by Harris at 16% and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 9% and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 6%. No other candidate received more than 2% support.
This is the first Suffolk poll of Iowa this cycle, so no apples-apples comparison can be made. However, in the table below we've compared this poll with that released by Selzer & Co. in early June. Selzer & Co. is one of the most highly regarded pollsters in the state.
Biden saw no change between the two polls, but many of the other candidates had significant moves. Harris more than doubled her level of support and moved into 2nd place. Sanders and Buttigieg saw the most significant drop in support. Buttigieg had been polling significantly better here than in the national polls. While he may have previously received the benefit of being from a neighboring state, he is now perhaps being more adversely impacted by the ongoing firestorm around the police shooting of Eric Logan.
A new CNN poll shows significant gains for Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, putting them within striking distance of former vice president Joe Biden. The survey, taken after last week's Democratic debate is compared to the prior CNN poll from early June in the table below.