Nevada is next up on the presidential calendar, with primaries for both parties on Tuesday. The Republican primary will have no weight; the party will have a separate caucus on Thursday to award its delegates.
Only registered party members may participate in a primary, but the state does offer same-day registration.
Given the dynamics at work, each of Tuesday's primaries should give added visibility to "None of These Candidates", a ballot line unique to Nevada.
Polls close at 10:00 PM Eastern Time.
Traditionally a caucus state, a 2021 law signed by former Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) scheduled state-run primaries for the first Tuesday in February. Democrats - also in control of the Legislature - drove the change, moving away from the caucus format after the bungled 2020 event in Iowa. The new law also codified a date that would potentially push the state to the front of the party calendar in 2024. In the end, the party gave Nevada the second sanctioned slot, after South Carolina.
Republicans opposed the effort, making an unsuccessful legal challenge to the new law. However, the State affirmed that the party was not required to abide by the primary results in terms of how to allocate its delegates, and thus could could continue with a separate party-run caucus.
Joe Biden swept all 55 pledged delegates in this past Saturday's South Carolina primary. He received 96% of the vote, with challengers Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson each seeing only 2% support.
Phillips is not on the ballot. Williamson is joined by eleven minor candidates. To the extent that there is still some protest vote against Biden but little interest in the named alternatives, it would not be surprising to see "None of These Candidates" finish second to the President.
There are 36 pledged delegates. 13 of them will be allocated based on the statewide vote, while 23 of them are associated with the state's four congressional districts. There are six in each district, except five in the more historically Republican 2nd District.
In each case, delegates are allocated proportionately to candidates receiving at least 15% of the vote. Given that threshold, Biden is likely to win them all. Note that "None of These Candidates" is ineligible to win delegates even if it were to qualify based on the vote.
Bookmark our pledged delegate count map to keep track through the primary and caucus season as candidates accumulate delegates toward the 1,968 needed to win the Democratic nomination.
Tuesday's primary is non-binding, with no delegates at stake. All 26 of the state's delegates will be allocated based on the results of Thursday's party caucuses. State party rules prohibit a candidate from participating in both contests. Nikki Haley entered the primary, while Donald Trump entered the caucus.
Joining Haley on the primary ballot are Mike Pence and Tim Scott, who have withdrawn from the race, along with four minor candidates.
Registered Republicans can participate in both the primary and the caucus. That in mind, it is expected that some Trump supporters will select "None of these Candidates" in the primary, before voting for their candidate at the caucus. That is what the state's current governor, Republican Joe Lombardo, plans to do.
Given Trump's strength in the state, confusion over his name not being on the primary ballot, and the lack of investment here by the Haley campaign, it is possible - perhaps likely - that "None of These Candidates" will receive the most votes.
Delegates and Thursday's Caucus
Trump and Ryan Binkley are the only names on the Thursday caucus ballot. Candidates that had originally planned to participate, but who have suspended their campaign, will not appear. As a party-run event, the "None of These Candidates" option is unavailable.
The caucuses will take place this Thursday, from 5:00 PM to 7:30 PM local time (8:00 PM to 10:30 PM Eastern). 26 delegates will be allocated proportionately based on the statewide vote.