By 270toWin Staff - November 13, 2021, 10:33 AM ET
Rescheduled from October 9 due to the aftereffects of Hurricane Ida, Louisiana holds its fall elections on Saturday. In terms of races we follow, this includes elections for three vacancies in the state legislature and for mayor of New Orleans.
Louisiana has a hybrid system, with no primaries prior to Election Day. All candidates from all parties compete on a single ballot. if one candidate gets a majority, they are elected. Otherwise, the top two finishers advance to a runoff. This year's runoffs will be on Saturday, December 11.
Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
State Legislature Special Elections
Senate District 27
There are 39 State Senate districts in Louisiana. Republicans hold a large 26-12 majority. Senators serve four-year terms; the next regularly scheduled election is in 2023.
Located in the southwestern part of the state, District 27 includes Lake Charles. The former incumbent, Republican Ronnie Johns, resigned in July after being appointed chair of the Louisiana State Gaming Control Board.
There 105 House districts in Louisiana. Currently, Republicans hold 68 of the seats to 32 for Democrats. There are three independents and two vacancies that will be filled by the winners of these special elections. Representatives serve four-year terms; the next regularly scheduled election is in 2023.
Both these districts are heavily Democratic; no Republicans are competing.
District 16: The seat in this Monroe-area district has been vacant since July, when Frederic Jones resigned after being elected to Judicial Court. Jones was in his first term. Three Democrats are on the ballot.
District 102: Gary Carter Jr. resigned from this New Orleans-area district in June after being elected to the State Senate. Carter was in his second term. Two Democrats are on the ballot.
New Orleans Mayor
New Orleans is the 53rd largest city in the United States,11City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of just under 385,000. The mayor is Democrat LaToya Cantrell, who is seeking a second four-year term. She is the first woman to hold the position in the city's history.
Although she has attracted 13 challengers, Cantrell is expected to win a second term.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska announced Friday that she will seek a 5th term in the Senate next year. Alaska's new election system may help her chances, despite the vocal opposition of former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed one of her challengers.
Murkowski, who called for Trump to resign shortly after the January 6 Capitol riot, was one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict him at the subsequent impeachment trial. Trump has vowed to campaign against Murkowski, and in June he endorsed Kelly Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration.
The incumbent should benefit from a change to the Alaska election system, as it eliminates a head-to-head primary battle with Tshibaka. Under the revised rules, implemented after the narrow passage of a voter referendum in 2020, all candidates from all parties will compete on a single ballot in the August 16, 2022 primary. The top four finishers, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. The general election itself will be conducted via ranked choice voting.
Monday is exactly one year - 365 days - from the 2022 midterm elections.
Senate: The chamber is tied 50-50, giving Democrats control with VP Kamala Harris breaking any ties. 34 seats are up in 2022, of which 20 are held by Republicans. However, neither party has an edge when looking at the most competitive seats. Each party holds four of the eight seats currently seen as the most competitive. 2022 Senate Interactive Map >>
House: After last week's two Ohio special elections - split by the parties as expected - there is only one vacancy in the House. That is in FL-20, where a special election will be held in January. Democrats currently hold a narrow 221-213 edge. Current House Map >>
Redistricting is underway, and almost all of the 435 congressional districts will be contested with new boundaries next year. We are working on an interactive 2022 map that will launch with those states that have completed their redistricting, adding others as they become available.
Governor: Republican Glenn Youngkin flipped Virginia last week, while Democrat Phil Murphy was reelected in New Jersey. When Youngkin is sworn in on January 15, the GOP will control 28 of the 50 governorships. 36 states will hold a gubernatorial election next year. 2022 Governor Interactive Map >>
Republicans have now won 50 seats in Virginia's House of Delegates. Three Democratic-held seats remain uncalled as of Wednesday afternoon, with Republicans ahead in two of them.
A GOP victory in any of these three will give it control for the next term.
D + 1.2%
R + 0.7%
R + 1.0%
In 2019, Democrats took control of the House for the first in over 20 years, winning 55 seats. Republicans have held all 45 of the districts they won that year and flipped five Democratic-held districts (12, 28, 63, 75 and 83). Democrats have won 47 seats thus far.
Governor: Heading into Election Day, Phil Murphy seemed well-positioned to become the first Democrat reelected as governor here since 1977. That may still happen, but the race is much tighter than expected. As of this writing, Murphy and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are separated by fewer than 2,000 votes out of almost 2.4 million counted.
NJ State Legislature: A significant number of races remain uncalled. However, Democrats started the day with significant majorities in both branches and will likely remain in control as the remaining votes are counted. NJ Legislature Live Results >>
House of Delegates: Democrats took control of the lower house of the Virginia Legislature in 2019 winning 55 of the 100 seats that year. As of this morning, Republicans have held all 45 of the districts they won in 2019 and flipped four Democratic-held districts (12, 63, 75 and 83). Democrats have won 46 seats.
Five Democratic-held districts remain uncalled. Republicans must win two of them to win a majority. The table below shows the party leading as of about 8:30 AM ET Wednesday morning. See the live results below the table for the latest.
The only other House vacancy is in Florida's 20th district, where there is an extremely tight race for the Democratic nomination. Earning the nomination is tantamount to winning the general election in this deep blue seat formerly held by the late Alcee Hastings.
As of this morning, just 12 votes separate Broward Count Commissioner Dale Holness and businesswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick.
Eric Adams (D) was elected mayor of New York City. Further upstate, Buffalo mayor Byron Brown, who lost in the Democratic primary, appears to have won via a successful write-in campaign. However, we won't know for sure until the write-ins are processed. This may be a couple weeks.
Michelle Wu is the first woman elected mayor of Boston. Republican Francis Suarez won reelection by a landslide in Miami. Bruce Harrell looks like he is going to be Seattle's next mayor, although the race hasn't been officially called yet. Jacob Frey is leading in Minneapolis, but the winner will be determined via a ranked choice process. In Atlanta, Felicia Moore will advance to a runoff. Former mayor Kasim Reed narrowly trails Andre Dickens for the second spot.
There are races for elected statewide offices and for the House of Delegates, the Virginia State House. By winning the governorship or taking control of the House of Delegates, Republicans can break the Democratic state government trifecta. The Virginia State Senate will next be contested in 2023.
Polls close at 7:00 PM ET.
Virginia is the only state not allowing governors to serve consecutive terms. Democrat Terry McAuliffe is looking to reclaim the office he held from 2014-2018. Businessman Glenn Youngkin is the Republican nominee.
This will be the most closely-watched race in the country Tuesday. Whether or not it is actually the case, the outcome will be seen by many as a litmus test for Democratic prospects in 2022. If Youngkin prevails, it would mark a sharp reversal from Joe Biden's 10-point win here just last November. Additionally, Republicans have not won a statewide race in Virginia since 2009.
Also working against McAuliffe is history: In modern times, aside from 2013, the party controlling the White House has lost the Virginia governorship. There is also a third party candidate, Princess Blanding, campaigning on racial justice. While she's not likely to see more than 1-2% support, those votes are more likely to come from those who might otherwise have supported McAuliffe.
Unlike the top job, the lieutenant governor can seek reelection. However, incumbent Justin Fairfax (D) unsuccessfully ran for governor. The Democratic nominee is Delegate Hala Ayala, while the Republican nominee is former Delegate Winsome Sears. The winner will be the first woman to serve as lieutenant governor of Virginia.
In an era where ticket splitting has become increasingly rare, the results here will likely track fairly closely to those of the governor's race. However, in a very close election, as both these are shaping up to be, a small difference could lead to a split result. The last time this happened in Virginia was in 2005, when now Sen. Tim Kaine (D) was elected governor, while voters chose Bill Bolling (R) as lieutenant.
Incumbent Democratic Mark Herring (D) is seeking a third termagainst Republican Delegate Jason Miyares. In 2017, Herring was reelected with 53% of the vote, closely mirroring the 54% received by Democrat Ralph Northam at the top of the ticket.
Perhaps owing to incumbency, Herring has generally seen modestly higher support in polls that sample all three of these statewide races. (See, for example, this Suffolk University poll). However, this race has also tightened in recent weeks and could go either way.
House of Delegates
Democrats took control of the Virginia House of Delegates in the 2019 elections for the first time in over 20 years. The party holds a 55-45 edge. Republicans need to gain six seats to take back control. A gain of five would result in an evenly split House.
Chaz Nuttycombe, founder of CNalysis, a site that forecasts state legislative elections, rates the battle for control a toss-up. From his final forecast: "We have Republicans as the slight favorites to earn a net gain of 7 seats in the House of Delegates. That being said, many of these were tough calls, and that figure could reasonably be smaller than expected. Regardless, a GOP net gain is expected."
In terms of what to keep an eye on, Nuttycombe sees the 13 districts listed below as the most competitive. The seven in the first row are Democratic-held seats slightly favored to flip.
10, 12, 28, 73, 75, 83, 85
21, 40 ,68
Select 'Change Race' to see live results for a specific district.
Elections will be held for governor and both chambers of the state legislature. Democrats are likely to maintain their governing trifecta by again winning the governor's office and majorities in both the state senate and state house. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
While history says otherwise - no Democrat has been reelected as governor here since 1977 - Gov. Phil Murphy is favored to win a second term over the Republican nominee, Jack Ciattarelli. Recent polling has been pretty consistent, with Murphy holding an 8% lead in the Real Clear Politics average.
Unlike in Virginia, the governor and lieutenant governor run as a joint ticket here.
There are 40 Senate districts in New Jersey. Democrats hold a 25-14 edge, and are expected to maintain control after Tuesday's elections. There is one vacancy.11That open seat is in District 2. It is one of the most competitive districts in the state. Republican Chris Brown resigned in July to take a job in Gov. Murphy's administration. The 2021 elections are for a two-year term.22New Jersey has a 2-4-4 system for Senators, where the election that takes place in a redistricting year is for a two-year term. The next two elections are for four-year terms.
Select the down arrow to see live results for a specific district.
The New Jersey State House is known as the General Assembly. Heading into the election, it is comprised of 52 Democrats and 28 Republicans.
There are 40 Assembly districts in the state, each with the same boundaries as the corresponding State Senate district. However, each district has two assembly members. As a result, the top two finishers in each district will be elected. Overall, the number of seats won by each party is likely to be pretty close to the current totals.
Select 'Change Race' to see live results for a specific district.
There are three open seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, which Democrats currently control with a 220-212 edge over Republicans. Two of the vacancies will be filled Tuesday, and a primary will decide the nominees for the final one. Winners will serve through the remainder of the current Congress.
All 435 House seats will be up for a regular two-year term next November. As a result of redistricting, most of these 2022 races will be contested along different district lines.
Ohio District 11
This Cleveland-Akron area district was vacated by Democrat Marcia Fudge in March, after she was confirmed as HUD Secretary.
This is a safely Democratic seat; all of the competitive action for this race took place in the August primary. That contest was a battle between the centrist and progressive wings of the party. The establishment candidate, Cuyahoga County Councilwoman Shontel Brown prevailed by 50%-45% over Nina Turner.
The Republican nominee is Laverne Gore, who was also the party's nominee in 2020. She lost to Fudge by an 80% to 20% margin.
Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
Ohio District 15
In May, Republican Steve Stivers resigned from this Columbus area district to head the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Stivers had been reelected by a 27% margin last November, running well ahead of Donald Trump's 14% margin here.
Despite that deficit, Trump's endorsed candidate, lobbyist and political newcomer Mike Carey, easily won the GOP nomination in August. The Democratic nominee is State Rep. Allison Russo.
Long-time Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings died in April. Playing the partisan in this deep blue district, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis delayed the special election until January 11, 2022. Tuesday's primaries will select the nominees for that election.
11 Democrats are looking to succeed Hastings; the list features a number of state legislators and Broward County commissioners. There is no frontrunner.
Two candidates are on the GOP ballot, including Greg Musselwhite, who was the party's 2020 nominee. He lost to Hastings by a 79% to 21% margin.
17 of the largest 100 cities by population will have elections for mayor. Population rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.
Cities are ordered by population. Alternately, select a city in the alphabetized drop down menu.
Poll closing hours shown in Eastern Time (ET). Your individual polling place may have different hours - do not rely on these times to determine when to vote.
New York, NY
Bill de Blasio (D)
Although residents of America's largest city have been willing to elect Republican mayors, that won't be the case this time. Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams (D) is the prohibitive favorite over Curtis Sliwa (R) to lead the city for the next four years. Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
The current City Council President, M. Lorena Gonzalez faces off against her predecessor, Bruce Harrell. Both are Democrats that advanced from the top two nonpartisan August primary, with Harrell finishing slightly ahead of Gonzalez, 34% to 32%. Gonzalez is positioned as the more progressive of the two nominees.
In the only recent poll of the race, Harrell had a 48% to 32% lead over Gonzalez. Polls close at 11:00 PM ET.
Boston is set to elect11Acting mayor Kim Janey was not elected to the position. She assumed office after Marty Walsh resigned in March. the first woman and first person of color to lead the city. Councilors Michelle Wu (33% of the vote) and Annissa Essaibi George (23%) advanced from the top two nonpartisan primary.
Four public polls have been released this month. All show Wu ahead by 25% or more. Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.
Three candidates are on the nonpartisan ballot, including the incumbent mayor. The main question to be answered Tuesday is whether Keller will get a majority of the vote to avoid a December 7 runoff. Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
Kasim Reed hopes to return to the office he held for two terms. City Council President Felicia Moore has led most polls, with Reed a few points behind. However, City Councilman Andre Dickens appears to have some momentum after a recent endorsement by Shirley Franklin, who preceded Reed as mayor.
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote - a pretty good bet in this field of 14 candidates - a top two runoff will be held November 30. For this election, City of Atlanta polling places close at 8:00 PM ET. (Note that for elections in other parts of Georgia, polls close at 7:00 PM ET).
Combining the power of incumbency and strong fundraising, Suarez is expected to win a second term. However, should he not receive a majority of the vote Tuesday, a top two runoff will take place on November 16. Polls close at 7:00 PM ET.
Frey will receive the voters' verdict on his stewardship in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd and the ongoing debate about the future of the city's police department. A large field of challengers, most more liberal than the incumbent, are vying to deny him a second term. The most notable challengers appear to be community organizer Sheila Nezhad and former state representative Kate Knuth.
In municipal elections, Minneapolis uses ranked choice voting. Ballots are marked with a 1st choice, with an option to make a 2nd and 3rd choice. Sometimes called an instant runoff, the tabulation process will ultimately yield a majority winner if no candidate gets 50% of 1st choice votes. Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
As no candidate received 50% of the vote, the city conducted the ranked choice voting process on Wednesday, November 3. In round 2, Mayor Jacob Frey received a majority of the vote and was reelected.
Nonprofit executive Justin Bibb (27% of the vote) and City Council President Kevin Kelley (19%) advanced from the September nonpartisan primary. One of them will succeed departing four-term mayor Frank Jackson. Bibb may be a slight frontrunner, based on a recent poll and fundraising. Jackson has endorsed Kelley. Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
Carter seems well-positioned to win a 2nd term. Based on campaign finance reports, he appears to have outraised all seven of his opponents combined.
As in Minneapolis, this election will use ranked choice voting. Differing from the other Twin City, voters here can rank up to six candidates. However, it won't come into play if Carter receives a majority of first choice votes, making him the winner before any additional tabulations are done. Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
Receiving more than 2/3 of the vote, retired Judge Elaine O'Neal won the nonpartisan primary held in early October. She will almost certainly be the city's next mayor, as City Councilwoman Javiera Caballero, who finished second, subsequently suspended her campaign. Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
Brown, a four-term incumbent, was defeated by progressive India Allen in the Democratic primary. He is hoping to hold the office via an aggressive write-in campaign. There is no Republican on the ballot. Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
NOTE: While the overwhelming amount of the write-in vote will be for Brown, the number reported by the state - and in the results below - will include all write-in votes. State law prohibits the counting of these votes until 10 days after Election Day. The number of write-in votes assigned to each candidate will only be announced when the election is certified. That will likely be several weeks from Election Day.
Former Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch (D, 39% of the vote) and City Councilman Robert Blackmon (R, 28%) meet in this runoff necessitated when neither received a majority of the vote in the August nonpartisan primary. Welch appears to be the frontrunner. If elected, He would be the city's first Black Mayor. Polls close at 7:00 PM ET.
There are 7,383 seats in state legislatures across the 50 states. With that large a number, there are almost always vacancies that arise due to resignation or death. Special elections are held through the year; the ones below are taking place on Election Day itself. That timing could increase turnout, especially in those places where there are other high profile races or proposals on the ballot.
Poll closings shown in Eastern Time (ET). Your individual polling place may have different hours - do not rely on these times to determine when to vote.
Republican Tom Buford passed away in July. He had been in the state senate for over 20 years, serving this district southwest of Lexington. The nominees were selected by their respective political parties. Polls close at 6:00 PM ET.
Kentucky State House Districts 51 and 89
Two vacancies in Districts 51 and 89
District 51: Long-time Rep. John Carney (R) died in July. Nominees were chosen by the parties. This is a rural district in the southcentral part of the state.
District 89: Republican Robert Goforth resigned in August. Nominees were selected by the parties. This district is also in the southern part of the state, to the east of District 51.
Polls close at 6:00 PM ET, except 7:00 PM ET for the portion of District 51 in the Central Time Zone.
The District 86 election will fill one of two vacancies. Republican Justin Fecteau resigned in July. This Augusta area district has been competitive in the past, so this is one to watch in a low turnout environment. The nominees are Republican James Orr and Democrat Raegan LaRochelle. Polls close at 8:00 PM.
Massachusetts State House Essex District 4 (Primaries)
One independent; one vacancy
This coastal district is located in the northeast part of the state. Republican Bradford Hill resigned in September after being appointed to the Massachusetts Gaming Commission. He had been in office since 1999, and had run unopposed over the last decade, except in 2018. That year, Hill defeated Democrat Allison Gustavson by 56% to 44%.
Two candidates from each party are seeking the nomination. The general election is November 30. Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.
District 8: Republican Peter Lucido won 62% to 38% in 2018, the last time this district north of Detroit was contested. Lucido resigned at the end of 2020 after being elected Macomb County Prosecutor.
District 28: Republican Peter MacGregor won 58% to 39% in 2018, the last time this Grand Rapids area district was contested. MacGregor also resigned the Senate at the end of 2020; he had been elected Ken County Treasurer. There are four candidates on the ballot.
District 32: Democrat Sampson Jackson resigned on June 30. Nine candidates are on the ballot to succeed him in this district in the east central part of the state. If nobody gets a majority, a top two runoff will take place November 23.
District 38: Democrat Tammy Witherspoon also resigned June 30. As there are only two candidates vying to succeed her, no runoff will be needed. The district is located in the southwestern part of the state.
The former incumbent of this Manhattan district, Democrat Brian Benjamin, was appointed lieutenant governor in September by Gov. Kathy Hochul. Benjamin was reelected in 2020 with 93% of the vote to 7% for Republican Oz Sultan.
Sultan is again the Republican nominee. Democrats nominated Cordell Cleare. Shana Harmongoff is running as a 3rd party candidate.
District 113: This Scranton area district was vacated after Democrat Martin Flynn won a special election for the state Senate in May. Flynn was reelected with 68% of the vote in 2020. Democrats have held this district since the last redistricting in 2012.
District 164: This suburban Philadelphia district has been vacant since July, when Democrat Margo Davidson resigned. This district has also been in Democratic hands for the past decade.
Democrat Gayle Goldin resigned this Providence area district in August to accept a job in the Biden administration. This is a deep blue district; Goldin had faced only write-in opposition since being first elected in 2012. However, Republicans are fielding a candidate, Alex Cannon, in the special election. The Democratic nominee is Samuel Zurier.
Republicans are hoping to flip this San Antonio area district that has been vacant since August, when Democrat Leo Pacheco resigned. Republican John Lujan (42% of the vote) and Democrat Frank Ramirez (20%) were the top two finishers in the September 28 all-party primary. As no candidate received a majority, the race will be decided in this runoff.
Although Lujan, with 42%, finished well ahead of Ramirez at 20%, the aggregate Democratic/Republican vote across the five-person primary field was an almost identical 50/50 split, indicating this may be a highly competitive runoff.