Election News

New Jersey Redistricting Added to House Interactive Map

New Jersey's recently-approved congressional districts have been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map.

According to Politico, "Barring a massive wave election for either side, Democrats’ 10-2 majority in the New Jersey delegation is likely to shrink to 9-3 under the new map. That’s because the state’s 7th District, represented by Rep. Tom Malinowski, will shed Democratic areas to the benefit of three other previously-vulnerable Democratic incumbents." For a deeper dive into some of the more competitive districts, see this analysis from Split Ticket.

New Jersey is the 23rd multi-district state to complete redistricting. Six states have a single at-large district. Also included on the interactive map is redistricting approved by the legislatures of Arkansas and Georgia. While these await gubernatorial action (Georgia) or inaction (Arkansas), the new maps are all but certain to become law.

The map now includes shapes for 259 out of the 435 congressional districts.

 

California Congressional Redistricting: Competitive Districts in 2022

California's independent redistricting commission approved a new congressional map earlier this week. While the map is not yet certified, it is all but certain to be in the near future. For the first time since statehood, California is losing a congressional district. It will have 52 for the next decade, still by far the most in the nation.

This article, written by Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) of Split Ticket, provides an overview of those districts seen as competitive in the newly approved map. 270toWin will be adding the district shapes for California (as well as those for Arizona and New Jersey) to the 2022 House Interactive Map in the near future.

Split Ticket is a new political content and mapping site founded by #ElectionTwitter veterans @thomas_armin@HWLavelleMaps, and @lxeagle17.

Long-time Democratic Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard to Retire

Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D, CA-40) announced her retirement late Monday. She becomes the third Los Angeles area Democratic House member to announce they aren't running for reelection. Alan Lowenthal (CA-47) is retiring, while Karen Bass (CA-37) is running for mayor of Los Angeles. 

Roybal-Allard, 80 years old, won her 15th and final term by 45 points in 2020. 

Her decision may have partially been driven by redistricting that is currently underway. For the first time in its history, California is losing a congressional district. In the approved final proposal from the independent commission, Roybal-Allard and Lowenthal would have been essentially merged together into the new 42nd district. Their joint departure creates a much easier path for Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia (D) to win a House seat in the 2022 midterms. Garcia announced his congressional run after Lowenthal's retirement announcement last week.

Retirement Map

23 Democrats and 13 Republicans are retiring or seeking another office in 2022. Click/tap the map for a detailed list.

 

Democratic Reps. Murphy and Sires Won't Seek Reelection in 2022

Democratic Reps. Stephanie Murphy (FL-7) and Albio Sires (NJ-8) will not seek reelection next year. This brings to 22 the number of current House Democrats retiring or seeking another office. 11 Republicans have made that decision.

Murphy, in her third term, is a leading centrist voice in the Democratic caucus. She was reelected to her Orlando area district by 12% in 2020. Florida has not yet completed redistricting; the state is gaining a district next year. 

Sires, in his ninth term, represents a largely urban district in the northern part of New Jersey. In its current boundaries, it is one of the bluest districts in a state where Democrats hold a 10-2 edge; Sires won by about 50% in 2020. New Jersey will maintain those 12 districts after redistricting, which has not yet been completed. Sires is expected to make a formal announcement before the end of the year.

California Democratic Rep. Alan Lowenthal Not Running in 2022

Five-term California Rep. Alan Lowenthal announced Thursday that he won't run for reelection next year. He becomes the 20th Democrat to announce they are retiring or seeking another office in 2022.

Currently, District 47 is along the coast, south of Los Angeles, and includes Long Beach as well as Catalina Island. In the latest proposed map put out by California's redistricting commission, Lowenthal would have fit most naturally into the new District 39, as would fellow Democrat Lucille Roybal-Allard (current CA-40). Lowenthal's retirement avoids a potential intraparty primary between two incumbents. California is losing a district for the first time since it gained statehood.

Live Results: Several State Legislative Elections to Close out the Year

The 2021 election calendar wraps up Tuesday with two general and two primary state legislative special elections. While all four of the states have completed legislative redistricting, these elections will be contested under the existing boundaries.

Special General Elections

Connecticut State House District 116

The 151 member Connecticut House of Representatives is comprised of 95 Democrats and 54 Republicans. Members serve two-year terms. The next scheduled elections are in in 2022. These will be conducted using redistricted boundaries.

There are vacancies in Districts 116 and 144. The special election for Stamford-area District 144 will take place on January 25.

District 116 is located just southwest of New Haven. It was previously represented by Democrat Michael DiMassa, who resigned in October after being indicted. He was serving his third term. 

Nominees for special elections in Connecticut are selected by the parties. Democrats nominated Trenee McGee. The Republican nominee is Richard DePalma, who also represented the party in the 2016 and 2018 elections here. Those races were not competitive; DiMassa won by a nearly 50% margin both times. Independent Portia Bias is also on the ballot.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time (ET).

Iowa State Senate District 1

Republicans hold a 31-18 edge over Democrats in the 50-person Iowa State Senate. Members serve staggered four year terms; districts with even numbers were contested in 2020 and those with odd numbers scheduled for 2022. As a result of redistricting, it is possible that one or more of the even-numbered districts, known as "holdover senatorial districts" will also be on the ballot. That remains to be determined. If any of those elections are needed, they will be for a shortened two-year term. 

District 1 covers a largely rural area in the northwest corner of the state. It has been vacant since October, when Republican Zach Whiting resigned to take a job in Texas. Whiting was in his first term; he ran unopposed in 2018. 

Nominees for special elections in Iowa are selected by the parties. The Republicans chose Dave Rowley; the Democratic nominee is Mark Lemke.

Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.

Special Primary Elections

Arkansas State Senate District 7

Republicans hold a lopsided 26-7 margin over Democrats in the 35-person Arkansas State Senate. Term length is four years, except two years for the election that precedes a redistricting - as was the case in 2020. The 2022 elections will be contested using redistricted boundaries. Those will be for four years terms, as will the ones in 2026. 

District 7 is in the northwest part of the state. Republican Lance Eads resigned in October to take a private sector job. Eads was serving in his second term, having run unopposed in the general election in 2016 and 2020.

Four Republicans are looking to succeed Eads, while two Democrats are seeking their party's nomination. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, a top two runoff will be held January 11. The ultimate nominees will advance to the February 8 general election.

Polls close at 8:30 PM ET.

Massachusetts State Senate 1st Suffolk & Middlesex District

Democrats have an overwhelming 36-3 membership advantage in the 40-person Massachusetts State Senate. Term length is two years; the next regularly scheduled elections are in 2022. These will be contested under redistricted boundaries.

The vacancy in this Boston area district occurred in September, when incumbent Democrat Joseph Boncore resigned to take a private sector job. Boncore was in his third term.

No Republican has contested this district since 2012. That streak will continue with the special election. Two candidates are competing in the Democratic primary with the nominee all but certain to be elected on January 11.

Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.

Upcoming

On January 11, there will be a special election to in Florida's 20th congressional district.  The seat has been vacant since long-time Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings died in April. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick won the special Democratic primary by just 5 votes over Dale Holness and she will be a heavy favorite against Republican Jason Mariner. 

This is the only currently open seat in the U.S. House. However, another will occur at the end of 2021, as California Rep. Devin Nunes (R) announced he will resign to lead former president Donald Trump's new media venture.

The 2022 Election Calendar (statewide primaries) kicks off in Texas on March 1. It was to have been followed the following week by North Carolina's primaries. However, these have been delayed until May by the State Supreme Court to allow time for legal challenges to redistricted maps recently approved by the General Assembly.

There will also be several legislative special elections in January and February.

Introducing the 2022 House Interactive Map

The 2022 House Interactive Map is now available. Use it to create and share your own 2022 election forecast.

The interactive map will be updated as states complete the redistricting process and we are able to upload the new district shapes. In some cases, (e.g., Arkansas and Georgia at the moment), new district shapes may be added before they become law if they are all but certain to be enacted (e.g., just waiting on the governor's signature). 

Current House members are assigned to new districts as appropriate. In some cases, redistricting will force two incumbents seeking reelection into the same district. If they are of the same party (e.g., WV-2), the survivor will be determined in the party primary. Alternately, if there is one representative from each party (e.g., NC-11), and both win their respective primaries, they will meet in the general election.

Some states will be gray. Dark gray states, divided by district, can be included in your forecast (i.e., changed to red/blue/toss-up), but were not available to be rated when the map was saved. (For maps that we keep updated - such as those associated with professional analysts - any dark gray states are those that have not yet been rated by the forecaster).

Light gray states do not yet have a redistricted map available; these are not interactive. The counter above the map separates districts in light gray from those in dark. As a result, the light gray total at any given point in time will be the same across all House maps you look at. That number also reflects the number of districts - out of 435 total - that remain to be redistricted.

The current 2022 Consensus House Forecast is below. Click for an interactive version.

Use the drop down list above the map to see all districts, and their numbers, for a selected state.

Use the buttons above the map to toggle between the 'Interactive Map' and the 'Current House'. The current house map reflects the existing district boundaries and incumbents. For representation purposes, these boundaries are in effect until the new Congress takes office in January, 2023. Current maps are available for all states, even those that haven't completed redistricting.

Live Results: New Hampshire State House Special Election

At 400 members, the New Hampshire House is the largest in the country. There are currently 206 Republicans and 188 Democrats. 6 seats are vacant. Members serve two-year terms; the next scheduled elections are in 2022.

With 10 seats, Rockingham 6 is one of the state's largest multi-member districts. All nine incumbents are Republican. The vacancy in the remaining seat occurred in August when Republican Anne Copp resigned.

Jodi Nelson easily won the Republican primary on October 19, getting 78% of the vote in a three-person field. The Democratic nominee is Mary Eisner, who was unopposed. Eisner previously served one term in the House after being elected in 2018. In 2020, she finished first among 10 Democrats on the ballot, but 11th overall, denying her reelection.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Upcoming

The final elections of 2021 take place next Tuesday, December 14.

  • Arkansas State House District 7 (Primaries)
  • Connecticut State House District 116
  • Iowa State Senate District 1
  • Massachusetts State Senate First Suffolk & Middlesex District (Dem. Primary)

The 2022 Election Calendar (statewide primary Election Days) kicks off in Texas on March 1.

GOP Rep. Devin Nunes Will Resign from Congress to Lead Trump Media Venture

Republican Rep. Devin Nunes announced Monday that he will resign from Congress in the coming weeks. He has been hired as CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group, which is preparing to launch a new social media platform called TRUTH Social.

Nunes represents California's 22nd district, situated in the San Joaquin Valley. He did not fare well in the first draft of maps released by California's bipartisan redistricting committee last month. If those boundaries were to hold, CA-22 would shift from a district Trump carried by 5% to one Biden carried by 9%. Overall, the state is losing a congressional district in Census apportionment for the first time ever.

Former Sen. David Perdue to Challenge Gov. Brian Kemp for Georgia Governor

Politico reports that former Sen. David Perdue will enter the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial race, challenging Gov. Brian Kemp for the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump has urged Perdue to get in the race. The former president has repeatedly slammed Kemp for refusing to overturn Joe Biden's Georgia win in the 2020 presidential election. 

At one September rally, Trump even suggested 2018 Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams would be better for the state than Kemp. There's a chance that could play out - Abrams entered the race last week and will almost certainly be the party's nominee again next year.

Perdue served one term in the Senate after being elected in 2014. He lost in a runoff to Democrat Jon Ossoff in January. In a bit of irony, Trump's repeated questioning of the integrity of Georgia's vote in the presidential election may have kept enough Republicans home during the runoff to cost Perdue his job.