Election News

Debate Implications

The 2nd Republican debate, hosted by CNN, will be held September 16 at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, CA. 16 candidates that averaged 1% or more in 3 national polls have been invited. Jim Gilmore was not, although he has until September 10 to make the cut.

As with the first debate, the field will be divided into two groups, with those in the top 10 making the main stage. At this point, it looks like 11 candidates will be fighting for those 10 slots. Carly Fiorina's strong performance in the 'kids's table' debate last month has propelled her into the top 10. This means that one of Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Fiorina, John Kasich or Chris Christie will likely be excluded. All 5 are tightly bunched within 1% at this time.

Looking at some of the other results, Scott Walker remains in second overall, but has seen a notable drop-off since the debate. Jeb Bush has lost support as well, with two of this week's polls having him at just 5%. John Kasich received high marks for his debate performance, but Iowa voters were unimpressed; his level of support remained at about 3%. 

Our Iowa Republican caucus page has details on all the polls.The Iowa caucus is scheduled for February 1.

Click or tap the image above to see who is leading the polls in each Republican primary/caucus state. 

This is the first poll showing Sanders ahead of Clinton; she has a lead of about 3% when averaging recent New Hampshire polls. Nationally, Clinton maintains a considerable lead. It will be interesting to see how that shifts as voters across the nation become as familiar with Sanders as those in New England. 

Bookmark our Democratic Primary page to see national and state poll results, with additional content coming as the 2016 primary and caucus contents near.

Missing the cut, and invited to participate in a 5PM forum that day: Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore.

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Graphic credit: Fox 8 Cleveland

See the underlying polls here. Not shown are Graham, Gilmore and Pataki, all averaging under 0.5%. 

These may not be the five polls Fox uses to come up with its average -- the cutoff for polls to be considered is 5PM eastern today -- but every indication is that Chris Christie and John Kasich will get the final two spots, and Rick Perry will join the other low-polling announced candidates at a separate debate, scheduled for 5PM that evening.

While it remains a bit questionable to base the debate field on an election that doesn't exist, the results of these last five polls have been pretty consistent. 

The debate airs at 9PM Thursday on Fox News.

In the table below, the first column shows the Republican against Clinton, with the next three columns showing the outcome and Clinton lead in the McClatchy-Marist poll. For example, she leads Scott Walker by 7%. The next column reflects the 270toWin average in the last five Republican primary national polls. 

The Ranking columns order by relative standing, with the difference in the final column, shown in red if general election standing is worse than primary. The chart is sorted by Primary Ranking, with the green background representing the ten candidates that would make the cut for this Thursday's first Republican primary. 

The most noticeable difference is with Donald Trump, who is well out in front in recent Republican polls. Mr. Trump is likely to have center stage this Thursday, yet has one of the poorest relative showings vs. Clinton in the general election poll. On the other hand, Rand Paul and Rick Perry are ranking much better with a general election audience than with Republican voters. The difference is striking in Mr. Perry's case, as he may be on the outside looking in at this Thursday's debate.

The ten-candidate cutoff has received a lot of criticism, and rightly so. Assuming a poll of 500 people, the difference between Chris Christie in 9th place averaging 3.2% and Bobby Jindal in 14th place at 1.2% is just 10 people. That is before factoring in the statistical errors inherent in polling: Some of these polls have sample sizes small enough that almost everyone outside the top 3 is within the margin of error. Yet another issue is that the polling is national, while the choice of a nominee will be done via the primary and caucus system at the state level. Some of those not expected to make the cut are polling well in one or more states, based on their regional strength.

In sum, Fox is choosing ten debate participants based on insignificant differences in polls for an election that doesn't exist.

Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden also trail this same set of Republicans. However, Sanders is actually outperforming Clinton in some cases, the first time we have seen that.

Results of the Quinnipiac poll are below. Check our polling page for all the 2016 presidential polls.

No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. Should Kasich not be the nominee, his popularity at home could make him an attractive VP choice for the 2016 ticket.

Half the Republican field is or has been a governor. Kasich joins Jeb Bush (Florida), Chris Christie (New Jersey), Mike Huckabee (Arkansas), Bobby Jindal (Louisiana), George Pataki (New York), Rick Perry (Texas), and Scott Walker (Wisconsin). Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore may also join the race in August.