Overview and Live Results: Michigan Presidential Primary

Tuesday is the Michigan primary. Voters do not register by party and are thus free to vote in either primary.

While the outcome - large wins for Joe Biden and Donald Trump - doesn't seem in doubt, there is a bit of drama associated with each party's contest.

Background

As part of a revamp of the 2024 calendar, the Democratic National Committee wanted Michigan to be an early primary state. The Legislature - controlled by Democrats after the 2022 election - was accommodating, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) signed a bill moving the state's primary to the fourth Tuesday in February beginning this year.

However, the revised date was out of compliance with Republican Party rules, which limit what states can hold nominating contests prior to March 1. To get around this, there will be a two-part event on the GOP side, with congressional district conventions being conducted this Saturday.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Local Time. The vast majority of the state is in the Eastern Time Zone, with a small area of the Upper Peninsula on Central Time. While results may start populating during that first hour, we don't expect media to call the race before those last polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern.

Democratic Party

Overview

This is the third sanctioned contest for Democrats; President Joe Biden captured all 91 delegates available earlier this month in South Carolina and Nevada. There is every expectation that Biden will more than double that total once the results are known in Michigan.

Joining Biden on the ballot are Rep. Dean Phillips, as well as Marianne Williamson, who suspended her campaign after Nevada.  

The real intrigue here is how much support the 'Uncommitted' ballot line will see. Democratic critics of Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war, including some officeholders such as Rep. Rashida Tlaib (MI-12) and Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, are calling for residents to use that option as a protest vote.

Tlaib's district includes Dearborn, which is majority Arab-American and home to the largest Muslim population in the United States.

While 'Uncommitted' isn't a threat to Biden winning the primary, a significant vote may be worrisome in looking ahead to November. In 2020, Biden flipped the state back from Trump, but the margin of victory was less than 3%. Most recent polls have Trump narrowly ahead.

Live Results

Delegates

There are 117 pledged delegates. 40 of them will be allocated based on the statewide vote, while 77 of them are associated with the state's 13 congressional districts. The number of delegates in each district ranges from 4 to 8, based on how Democratic the district has voted in recent elections. 

In each case, delegates are allocated proportionately to candidates receiving at least 15% of the vote. Given that threshold, Biden is likely to win most, if not all of them.

Note that "Uncommitted" is eligible to win delegates if it meets the 15% threshold. 

Bookmark our Democratic pledged delegate count map to keep track through the primary and caucus season as candidates accumulate delegates toward the 1,968 needed to win the nomination.

Republican Party

Overview

After Saturday's South Carolina primary, Donald Trump has 110 delegates, while Nikki Haley has 20. A minimum of 1,215 delegates are required to win the nomination. 

As noted earlier, a February primary date in Michigan is noncompliant. The solution was a hybrid system that gained the blessing of the national party. 16 delegates will be allocated based on Tuesday's primary.

The remaining 39 will be awarded after party insiders vote at Saturday's convention. And that brings us to the GOP drama: as of this writing there are two conventions scheduled, one in Detroit and one in Grand Rapids.

Two competing factions are claiming leadership of the state party. The issue is in court, where the judge has said that "it would be hard to imagine a controversy more complex than this." Update: Late Tuesday, the court ruled that proper procedure was followed in ousting the former GOP head, Kristina Karamo. It is unclear if this decision will resolve the infighting. 

Live Results

Delegates

16 delegates will be awarded based on the statewide vote in Tuesday's primary. They will be awarded proportionately to any candidate receiving at least 12.5% of the vote. If polling proves accurate, the split will be approximately 13-3 in favor of Trump.

Note that any delegate estimates are unofficial until this weekend's state convention. Given the party turmoil, this is an important caveat.

Assuming a resolution of the legal issues, the remaining 39 delegates, three for each congressional district, will be allocated based on the results of Saturday's convention. District delegates (not the public) will choose from six qualifying candidates. A candidate receiving a majority of the vote receives all three delegates. This is the most likely scenario in each district given only two prominent candidates remaining in the race.

Bookmark our Republican delegate count map to keep track through the primary and caucus season as candidates accumulate delegates toward the 1,215 needed to win the nomination.

Upcoming Elections

Bookmark the 2024 Presidential Election Calendar

Starting March 5, some states include the presidential primary alongside the primary for other offices (e.g., Congress, Legislature) 

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Uncontested: 2024 U.S. House Races with Single Major Party Participation

These are elections where only one of the two major parties is on the general election ballot

Live Results: Georgia State House Special Election

Three Republicans are looking to replace long-time State Rep. Richard Smith, who died in January

No Labels to Abandon Third Party Bid for 2024

Decision comes after the death of Joe Lieberman and failure to recruit a credible candidate

Live Results: April 2 Presidential Primaries and Other Elections

Three northeastern states and Wisconsin hold presidential primaries. There are primary runoffs, as well as legislative special and mayoral elections.

Live Results: North Dakota Democratic Primary

The party-run primary has been conducted largely by mail over the past five weeks.