Live Results: Congressional Primaries Highlight Super Tuesday, as a Presidential Rematch Draws Closer

Super Tuesday has arrived. While it is the busiest day on the presidential nominating calendar, not much is expected in terms of competitive excitement. Joe Biden and Donald Trump should make large strides toward the delegate counts needed to clinch their respective nominations.

The first regular statewide primaries for 2024 are also taking place; candidates will be nominated for a variety of offices for the November 5 general election. 

Races to Watch >>

Scroll down to see live results from some of Tuesday's most interesting downballot primaries, or click the link above.

President

Each party will hold 15 nominating contests, although the list varies slightly by party. On the Democratic side, results will also be announced from Iowa, which has conducted a mail-in preference vote that began in January.

Use the links below for live results:

President - Democratic Primaries President - Republican Primaries

 

Delegate Counts

Democrats have 1,420 pledged delegates up for grabs, while Republican contests total 865. In each case, that is over 35% of the party's total available across all nominating contests.

Joe Biden has won all but two of 208 Democratic delegates available to this point; those two went to 'Uncommitted' as part of a protest vote in last week's Michigan primary. When all the results are counted, the president should be within 400 pledged delegates of the 1,968 needed for his renomination. It looks like he will surpass that number on March 19.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump has won most of the delegates, and all the contests to this point except for District of Columbia. He comes into Super Tuesday with a 273-43 delegate advantage over Nikki Haley. Unfortunately for the Haley campaign, most of the Super Tuesday primaries are heavily weighted to the winner in terms of delegate allocation.

If Super Tuesday goes well for Trump, he could surpass 1,215 delegates as soon as next Tuesday, which would clinch his third consecutive GOP nomination. If not, several large winner take all states on March 19 would put him over that threshold.

State Primaries

Five of the Super Tuesday states will have their regular statewide primary. Along with president, voters will choose nominees for offices such as U.S. House, U.S. Senate, Governor, and State Legislature, as applicable.

Use the links below for live results:

Alabama Arkansas California North Carolina Texas

 


Polls Close (Eastern Time)

Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this to determine when to vote. 

6:00 PM Iowa (D)+
7:00 PM Vermont, Virginia
7:30 PM North Carolina
8:00 PM Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas* 
8:30 PM American Samoa (D), Arkansas
9:00 PM Colorado, Minnesota
10:00 PM Utah (D)
11:00 PM California, Utah (R)
12:00 AM Alaska (R)

+Results of a mail-in vote will be released. | *Polls close 7:00 PM local time. That's 8:00 PM ET in all but the far western part of the state.  


Races to Watch

As the two presidential frontrunners are expected to dominate Super Tuesday, we'll need to look elsewhere for interesting races. Fortunately, there are quite a few of those in the states holding their full primaries. 

As a reminder, California holds all-party primaries, with the top two candidates advancing to the general election. Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas require a top two runoff where no candidate gets a majority of the vote. North Carolina also has a runoff rule, but that is set at 30%, and the runoff only happens if requested by the second place finisher. None of these rules apply to presidential primaries. 

U.S Senate

California

Although not overly relevant from a "what party will control the Senate next year" perspective, this is perhaps the highest profile race on Super Tuesday. The campaign began a year ago, even before Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) formally announced in February, 2023 that she would not seek reelection.

Feinstein died in September, with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointing Laphonza Butler to the seat. Butler chose not to seek a full term.

There are over 25 candidates on the ballot, but only four appear to have a chance of securing one of the top two spots. U.S. House Democrats Adam Schiff (CA-30), Katie Porter (CA-47), and Barbara Lee (CA-12), entered the race early. Most polls through October had them in that same order in terms of support, with Schiff and Porter seemingly best positioned to advance.

However, former baseball star Steve Garvey, a Republican, joined the race in October. Although he hasn't campaigned much, Garvey has steadily gained in the polls. For some of that, he can thank Schiff, who has spent $10 million on ads saying Garvey is "too conservative for California". 

This effort to elevate Garvey at the expense of Katie Porter appears to be working. Garvey moved into second place in the last several polls released before the election. He actually narrowly led Schiff in one of them

While Republicans may be able to get Garvey through to November, he will have virtually no chance to win a statewide general election in this deep blue state. If he can eliminate Porter in the primary, Schiff will be a heavy favorite to be the state's next U.S. Senator.

Special Election: The Senate vacancy occurred early enough in the cycle that a special election was required to be scheduled on the next statewide primary date. That coincides with the regular Senate primary for this seat, so voters will be presented with two separate Senate races on the ballot. The leading candidates for a full Senate term are all on the special primary ballot. 

As with the regular primary, the top two finishers will advance to the special general election in November. The winner will complete the final two months of Feinstein's term.

Texas (Democratic)

Rep. Colin Allred (TX-32) has been well ahead in the polls. State Sen. Roland Gutierrez is expected to finish second. The main suspense is whether Allred can get a majority of the vote to avoid a May 28 runoff against Gutierrez.

The nominee will face off against Republican Senator Ted Cruz, who is seeking his third term. Cruz has only minor primary opposition.

Governor

North Carolina

There are 11 states holding gubernatorial contests in 2024. Only North Carolina is seen as a true toss-up by almost every forecaster.  The primaries will likely be less suspenseful. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) are favored.

U.S House

Although only five states have primaries, this includes California and Texas, which together account for 90 of the nation's 435 congressional districts. Across the five states, nominees will be decided for 115 districts.

Alabama District 1 (Republican)

Court-ordered redistricting made District 2 much more favorable to Democrats, pushing incumbent Barry Moore to run in District 1. The winner will be heavily favored in the fall; the loser out of a job at the end of this Congress. A poll conducted last week had Carl up by eight points.

Alabama District 2 (Democratic)

The last time the state elected more than one Democrat to the House was in 2008. The redrawn District 2, meant to comply with the Voting Rights Act, is likely to end that streak. There are eleven candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, including several State Representatives and Shomari Figures, the son of a prominent former State Senator and civil rights lawyer.  If no candidate gets a majority - a likely outcome given the field - there will be a top-two runoff on April 16.

California District 13

This district, which sits between the Bay Area and Fresno had the second closest race in the country in 2022. Republican John Duarte won with 50.2% of the vote over Democrat Adam Gray.

Both are back for a rematch, and are the only two candidates on the top-two ballot. As such, they will meet again in November. 

While there's no suspense in any of that, it will be interesting to see how the primary vote share turns out.

California District 22

David Valadao (R) defeated Rudy Salas (D) by a 3% margin in 2022. Both are on the primary ballot, along with one other candidate from each party.

This primary has a particularly interesting dynamic. It is one of the most Democratic-leaning districts in the country represented by a Republican; Biden won by 13% over Donald Trump in 2020. Valadao won in 2022 despite voting to impeach Donald Trump after January 6. With Trump back on the ballot, he may be more vulnerable for that vote.

Democrats feel they have a good chance to flip the district. However, the primary battle between Rudy Salas and Melissa Hurtado has been so fiercely contested that there is some concern that a split vote will allow both Republicans to advance. This possibility could be helped along by Valadao losing some support for his Trump vote to Chris Mathys, who is challenging him from the right.

California District 27

Republican Mike Garcia is seeking a second full term. He won a special election in 2020, and was then reelected later that year and again in 2022. All three times, he defeated Democrat Christy Smith. Democrats have a wealthy new candidate, George Whitesides. Cook Political says the general election could be the most expensive House race in the country. 

California District 41

Republican Ken Calvert is seeking a 17th term. He was reelected in 2022 by about 5% over Democrat Will Rollins. The two will have a rematch in November, so will be interesting to see the vote share on Tuesday.

California District 45

Republican Michelle Steel is seeking a third term in this competitive Orange County district. She was reelected by 5% in 2022. Four Democrats are competing to challenge Steel in November.

California District 47

Democrat Katie Porter is running for U.S. Senate. Republican Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter by three points in 2022, is expected to advance. The other spot will likely go to one of two Democrats, State Sen. Dave Min or Joanna Weiss. Their battle has become increasingly nasty.

The six California primaries listed above are for the seats currently seen as the most competitive from a party control perspective in the November general election. These races may determine control of a closely-divided U.S. House in 2025. However, there are many more primaries of interest in the Golden State, including several safe Democratic seats where long-time incumbents are retiring. All California House Primaries >>

North Carolina District 1 (Republican)

Redistricting passed by the General Assembly should net Republicans three additional seats in November. This is the only competitive district remaining in the state. Freshman Rep. Don Davis (D) will face either Sandy Smith or Laurie Buckhout. A controversial figure, Smith has been the nominee here in the last two cycles; a Buckhout win gives the GOP slightly better odds to flip the seat in November. 

Across the other 13 districts, five incumbents are retiring or seeking another office. These seats are all expected to be won by Republicans in the fall, so the primaries will be determinative of the next representative. All North Carolina House Primaries >>

Texas District 18 (Democratic)

Will Thursday be Sheila Jackson-Lee's last opportunity to claim an aisle seat at the State of the Union? After losing a runoff for Houston mayor, she decided to seek a 16th term in Congress. She faces perhaps the most serious challenge of her long career from Amanda Edwards, a former intern in her office.

Texas District 23 (Republican)

Republican Tony Gonzales was censured by his party for supporting a gun control bill after the deadly shooting in Uvalde in 2022. He has drawn four challengers from the right to his reelection effort. Gonzales should finish first, but things might get interesting if he doesn't get a majority and is forced into a May 28 runoff.

Long-time Republicans Kay Granger and Michael Burgess are retiring; the GOP nominee in each will be heavily favored in the fall. Primaries in South Texas Districts 15 and 34 will likely yield a 2022 general election rematch. These two districts are among very few competitive ones remaining in the state. All Texas House Primaries >>

Other Notable Primaries

Texas State House District 21 (Republican)

The House Speaker, Dade Phelan is seeking a 5th term. As the Texas Tribune reports, "Phelan is fighting the most intense reelection battle of his political career as powerful Republicans have lined up to attack him, including former President Donald Trump and his ally Attorney General Ken Paxton who is hopping mad over the House’s impeachment of him this summer." 

Los Angeles County District Attorney (nonpartisan)

Embattled District Attorney George Gascón is facing 11 challengers in this nonpartisan primary. If a candidate gets a majority, they are elected, otherwise the top two finishers will meet in November.

Elected in 2020 on a platform of criminal justice reform, Gascón has had a difficult first term while attempting to implement his policies. Two attempts to recall him failed to make the ballot, and he received votes of no confidence from municipal governments under his jurisdiction.

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