We've updated the 2018 House Interactive Map to reflect the redrawn boundaries for Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts. Unless blocked by the Supreme Court, these borders are expected to be in place for both the 2018 and 2020 elections. For more information on how we're handling the changes on the map, see 2018 Pennsylvania Redistricting.
The revised map is somewhat more favorable to Democrats, particularly given the overall political environment. That party is also benefiting from departures, as four of 12 Republican incumbents are not seeking re-election. An analysis by Sabato's Crystal Ball goes into detail. At a high level however, there are now five safe Democratic seats and one likely Democratic. In addition there are now three toss-up districts in the Philadelphia area. Contrast that to the five seats Democrats hold today and a gain of anywhere from one to four seats seems plausible.
Note that the March 13th special election in the vacant 18th district will take place within the old boundaries. That race, in a district Donald Trump won by 20 points in 2016, was moved to toss-up this week by The Cook Political Report. The old 18th is now largely the new 14th district, which is even more Republican-leaning. The Sabato article discusses the implications for this race on November. The main takeaway is that if the Democrat Conor Lamb wins, his best bet to stay in Congress is to run in the 17th district against Republican Keith Rothfus.
The new Pennsylvania borders could also prove to be critical in who controls the House after the midterms. Looking at the entire country, Republicans currently control 238 seats, 20 more than the 218 required when there are no vacancies. (There are currently four opens seats, including the aforementioned one in Pennsylvania). The latest projection for November has Republicans at least slightly favored in exactly 218 seats, the lowest it has been this entire cycle.
Lawsuits challenging the winner-take-all system of allocating electoral votes were filed in four states Tuesday. The filings took place in four states which have voted for the same party in the last 7 or more presidential elections. These include California and Massachusetts on the Democratic side and the heavily Republican states of Texas and South Carolina.
The suits do not challenge the use of the Electoral College system - which is enshrined in the U.S. Constitution - but instead that winner-take-all disenfranchises many voters. The ultimate goal of the plaintiffs is to establish an allocation of electoral votes proportional to the popular vote across the 48 states that today use winner-take-all. Nebraska and Maine use a different method that partially allocates electoral votes by congressional district.
The plaintiffs vary by state, but include the League of United Latin American Citizens and former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld. The legal team is led by David Boies, who represented then Vice-President Al Gore in the Bush v. Gore case that resolved the disputed 2000 presidential election. In that election, as in 2016, the Democratic nominee lost the election - by falling short of 270 electoral votes - despite winning the popular vote.
This isn't the first effort to modify winner-take-all. Several state legislatures have introduced their own proposals over the years. These are almost always partisan efforts, occuring when the party controlling the legislature is not the one winning in presidential races. In our Gaming the Electoral College feature, we look at the impact of various methodologies that have been proposed.
As expected, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has come out with a revised map for the state's 18 congressional districts.
Here's the current map (with incumbent party)
The 'instant punditry' on Twitter is that the new map is quite favorable for the Democrats, although we haven't seen any specific district-by-district analysis as of yet. Republicans will almost certainly challenge the ruling.
The full ruling, along with dissenting opinions can be found here.
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court is expected to decide today on new boundaries for the state's 18 congressional districts. The Court had previously indicated it would create the map today if the Republican-controlled Legislature and the Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf were unable to reach agreement on one.
Including individual maps drawn by the Legislature and Governor, seven proposals were submitted for consideration. The Court could choose one of those or create one of its own. It has retained a redistricting expert to assist in the process.
A few notes:
North Dakota's at-large Rep. Kevin Cramer will announce Friday his entry into the U.S. Senate race. The 3-term Republican will give the party a top recruit in its effort to unseat Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp.
Cramer initially had passed on running, but apparently has had a change of heart in recent days. The only other Republican in the race, state Sen. Tom Campbell, may shift over to run for Cramer's seat in the House.
A Facebook page 'Kevin Cramer for US Senate' posted that the announcement would come late Friday afternoon in Bismarck.
Cramer will become the 51st current House member to pass on re-election to that body in 2018. He'll be the 10th of those running for the U.S. Senate. We'll add him to the list of retirements when the announcement is official.
Kramer won his third term in 2016 by 45%, while Donald Trump won the state by 36%. This is Heitkamp's first term; she won election in 2012 by just under 1%.
Pennsylvania's Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has rejected the revised congressional map submitted late last week by the Republican-controlled Legislature. The two parties have until Thursday to agree on a new map or the Court will draw one of its own.
The proposed map was redrawn after an order by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court last month that held the current congressional district borders were unconstitutional. An appeal of this decision to the U.S. Supreme Court was denied.
While the revised map meet some of the Court's specifications regarding geographic compactness and political (e.g., county and/or city) boundaries, numerous analyses have found the submitted map to be roughly as partisan as the current map.
Current Map, seats held by party (from our Interactive House Map, choose Pennsylvania in the drop down):
Proposed Map (from the Washington Post, based on presidential margin of victory in 2016):
The Court order specified that the new borders will be effective for the 2018 midterms, beginning with the state's primaries, scheduled for May 15th. However, the special election for the vacant 18th district, scheduled for March 13th, will take place under the existing boundaries.
Minnesota Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan announced he won't run for re-election in 2018. Nolan's 8th district, which covers the northeastern part of the state, including Duluth, was one of just 12 nationally that elected a Democrat to the House in 2016 while also voting for Donald Trump. Trump won by over 15%* here, while Nolan won re-election by less than 1%. While the race remains a toss-up, per Kyle Kondik at Sabato's Crystal Ball, it does represent one of the few attractive pickup opportunities for Republicans in this year's midterms.
Nolan is the 50th current member of the U.S. House to not stand for re-election. The list includes 34 Republicans and 16 Democrats. In addition to Nolan, Minnesota's Democratic 1st District Rep. Timothy Waltz is leaving; he is running for governor.
Five of Minnesota's eight districts are expected to be at least somewhat competitive in 2018. No states with more districts has this high a percentage of competitive races.
* Of the 12 districts, only the adjacent 7th district went more heavily for Trump that year. He won by 31% there. The long-time Democratic incumbent, Collin Peterson, won a 14th term by 5%.
Today (February 7th) marks 1,000 days until the 2020 presidential election. That will take place on Tuesday, November 3rd 2020. There are 272 days until this year's midterm elections on November 6th.
The last time a presidential election occurred on November 3rd was in 1992, when Democrat Bill Clinton defeated incumbent Republican George H.W. Bush.
Republican Trey Gowdy of South Carolina and Democrat Bob Brady of Pennsylvania announced Wednesday that they will retire at the end of the year. This brings to 49 the number of current members not seeking reelection. 34 of those are Republicans, while 15 are Democrats.
Gowdy, in his 4th term, chairs the House Oversight Committee, and is most well-known for chairing the Benghazi investigation. His 4th district includes much of Greenville and Spartanburg in the northwest corner of the state. Gowdy won reelection in 2016 by 36 points, while Donald Trump won here by 26 points over Hillary Clinton. The district is expected to remain in Republican hands.
Brady, in his 11th term, has been shadowed by an FBI investigation into a payment his campaign made to a primary opponent in 2012. Brady was not charged, but a political consultant for the congressman pleaded guilty to lying about the payment. He represents Pennsylvania's 1st district, which is one of the most Democratic in the country. Both Brady and Clinton won here by more than 60 points in 2016. The district primarily runs along the Delaware River from Northeast Philadelphia to Chester. It will likely be redrawn if a recent court ruling is upheld.
Brady is the 5th announced departure among the state's 17 current members. Pennsylvania's 18th district is vacant, and will be filled by a special election on March 13th. Gowdy is the first 2018 retirement from South Carolina's congressional delegation.
Gallup has published Donald Trump's approval rating in each of the 50 states. This is based on over 170,000 interviews conducted during 2017. Trump's national approval rating averaged 38% during 2017, with 56% disapproving. Breaking it down by state, the results ranged from 26% in Vermont to 61% in West Virginia. (Washington D.C. gave Trump an approval rating of 6%).
Gallup found that Trump had approval ratings above his 38% national average in 33 of the 50 states. This occurred because some of the states where he performs most poorly are very populous states like California. At a high level, this outcome sounds pretty similar to what we saw in the 2016 election, where Trump surpassed 270 electoral votes while losing the popular vote.
Texas appears to be the biggest surprise; Trump's approval here was just 39%. A couple caveats to keep in mind: the surveys were taken over the course of an entire year, so not really a snapshot in time. Also, the surveys were of adults; no consideration given to voter registration status. That last point might help explain the low number in Texas, as Latinos have historically voted at lower rates than whites.
The above in mind, it probably isn't totally fair to try and translate approval ratings into a 2020 electoral map. Of course, if one published a website around electoral maps, they might do it anyway. So here it is. The map is interactive, so if you don't agree with our categorizations (below the map), you can change them and create your own.
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