Montanans will go to the polls today to fill their at-large Congressional seat. The seat has been vacant since Ryan Zinke resigned on March 1st to become President Trump's Secretary of the Interior. The polls are open until 8:00PM Mountain Time (10:00PM Eastern).
The race, already more competitive than originally expected, was thrown into last-minute turmoil Wednesday night when the Republican, Greg Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault after an altercation with a reporter from The Guardian. While Democrats called on Gianforte to withdraw, it is unclear how much of an impact this event will have on today's vote. Over 250,000 ballots have already been returned by mail in a state with just 699,000 registered voters, according to The New York Times. In the 2016 general election, about 517,000 votes were cast in the state. That 74% turnout is unlikely to be replicated for a special election on the Thursday before a holiday weekend. This means the majority of votes in this election have already been cast.
Additionally, while there's no across-the-board data, early voting in many elections is often disproportionately Democratic vis-a-vis Election Day itself, when more Republicans tend to vote. Some of that can be seen in the most recent poll on the race. While finding a 14 point lead for Gianforte, his Democratic opponent Rob Quist held a one point lead among those in the poll who had already voted. The point is: Given the current war on the media from the right, some of today's voters in this conservative state will look favorably on Gianforte's standing up to a reporter.
Libertarian Mark Wicks is the third candidate on the ballot.
Democrat Jon Ossoff has a 7 point lead over Republican Karen Handel in a new SurveyUSA poll of 549 likely voters in Georgia's 6th Congressional District. Ossoff is at 51%, Handel 44%. The runoff election is four weeks from Tuesday (June 20th).
While the 7 point spread is the largest we have seen for this election, The pollster cautions that the result is “close enough in a low-turnout, stand-alone runoff to be anyone’s call, though clearly Ossoff is in a better position than Handel.”
For those that want to communicate with one or more of their elected representatives, we've updated our elected officials look-up with a variety of contact information. You can see (where available): Mailing address, phone number, e-mail and website. For Congress, Facebook and Twitter links are also included.
Input your address (or any U.S. address, Zip Code, state etc.) into the input form on the page. Alternately, you can click/tap this link to get the results for your current location. Where a full address or Zip Code is provided, information on state legislators will also be provided. Contact information for state governors will be added within the next few days.
Five weeks out from the June 20th runoff, a new Gravis Marketing poll mirrors what other polling has found: A highly competitive race between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel. This new poll of 870 likely voters gave Ossoff a two point lead, 47% to 45%. This is within the poll's 3.3% margin of error.
Ossoff's 47% is little changed from the 48% he received in the April 18th non-partisan primary. Handel received 20% on that date, although her vote was split among a number of viable Republican alternatives. Since nobody received a majority of the vote, these two will meet in the June runoff.
This race has attracted national attention and, as we noted earlier this month, will be the most expensive House race in U.S. history.
Passage of the American Health Care Act (AHCA) and President Trump's unpopularity are combining to make many more Republican House seats look competitive in the 2018 midterm elections, according to a new analysis from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. They have moved the ratings of 18 seats in the direction of Democrats, including 13 that have moved into the lean/toss-up category.
All but two of these Republicans voted for the AHCA. See how your/any Representative voted for AHCA alongside the competitiveness of their race here.
With six seats being moved to the toss-up category, Republicans remain favored in 230 House seats, 12 more than the 218 needed to hold control. The party currently holds 238 seats, with three previously Republican-held seats now vacant, to be filled in special elections by mid-year.
For more, see the 2018 House Interactive Map.
Raul Labrador, in his 4th term representing Idaho's first congressional district, has announced he will run for governor of the state in 2018. He will be the 8th person to join the race to replace retiring incumbent Butch Otter. Idaho is one of 36 gubernatorial seats to be contested next year. In addition, Virginia and New Jersey will elect a new state chief executive in 2017. Check our 2017-18 interactive gubernatorial map for more details.
Labrador becomes the 12th House retirement this cycle. This includes eight Republicans and four Democrats. Four of these (all Republicans) are retiring (or have not announced other plans), while six are running for governor and two for the U.S. Senate. All eight of those elections will take place in 2018. Only two of the 12 House seats are seen as highly competitive in 2018, one from each party.
Not included in the list above is Oklahoma Republican Jim Bridenstine. He announced in late 2015 that a third term would be his last. He won that third term in 2016. However, as best as we can tell, no official announcement has been made.
All 435 House seats will be contested in the 2018 midterms. Follow along with our 2018 House interactive map.
Two recent polls of Montana's upcoming U.S. House special election show a single digit lead for the Republican. The seat became vacant after Ryan Zinke resigned March 1 to become Secretary of the Interior.
The most recent poll, from Gravis Marketing, gives Republican Greg Gianforte an 8 point lead over his Democratic challenger Rob Quist. A late April poll from Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang showed a similar 6 point Gianforte lead.
This is a statewide race, as Montana has a single congressional district. The seat has been in Republican hands since 1997. Zinke won re-election by 16% last November, while Trump did even better, outpacing Hillary Clinton by 20%.
The two major party candidates will be joined on the ballot by Libertarian Mark Wicks. Absentee ballots went out on May 1st. The election will take place on Thursday, May 25th.
The Hill notes that "The 2020 presidential election could feature the most crowded Democratic primary in decades, with scores of Democrats rumored as potential contenders." They've come up with a list of 43 possible candidates, including many from outside the political sphere, as Trump's success essentially opens the playing field to just about anyone with name recognition and money.
Here are the 43 grouped into categories, some within a section may no longer be in that role. Some names are much more realistic than others, but at this early date the article has cast a very wide net.
The article does not delve into possible 2020 primary opponents for Trump. Whether any serious intra-party challengers emerge for the president will, of course, be largely dependent on his popularity and performance. This op-ed discusses some of the history around sitting presidents who have had to face a competitive primary.
The special election in Georgia's 6th congressional district will be the most expensive House race in U.S. history. Meanwhile, a new poll finds a very competitive battle for the June 20th runoff.
Nearly $30 million has been spent on television ads for the battle between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel. That, in and of itself, breaks the previous record for money spent on a House race*. However, the record is shattered when adding in the millions more being spent on mailers, radio, etc. So much money is coming into this race that the Atlanta NBC station has added an additional news broadcast to enable them to run all the ads that have been purchased.
A new poll from Landmark Communications gives Handel 49.1% to Ossoff's 46.5%, with slightly under 5% undecided. This result is well within the poll's 4% margin of error. The Republican vote, split across multiple candidates in the April 18th special election, has consolidated behind Handel. While she has a small lead, the poll found that "nearly 6 in 10 independents – a crucial voting bloc in Georgia that typically breaks for the GOP – backs Ossoff’s campaign." The survey included 611 likely voters.
* For those interested, $29.6 million was spent (in total) in the 2012 race between first-term Republican Alan West and Democrat Patrick Murphy in Florida's 18th congressional district. Murphy prevailed by less than 1%.
From the New York Times: "The House on Thursday narrowly approved a bill to repeal and replace major parts of the Affordable Care Act, as Republicans recovered from their earlier failures and moved a step closer to delivering their promise to reshape American health care without mandated insurance coverage.
The vote, 217-213, on President Trump’s 105th day in office, keeps alive the Republican dream to unwind the signature legislative achievement of former President Barack Obama. The House measure faces profound uncertainty in the Senate, where the legislation’s steep spending cuts will almost certainly be moderated. Any legislation that can get through the Senate will again have to clear the House and its conservative majority."
The measure needed 216 votes to pass (not 218, as there are 4 vacant seats), and it achieved that via a straight party-line vote. Of the 193 'no' votes, 20 were from Republicans.
Curious how your (or any) Representative voted? Today, we introduce a new feature that shows the House Roll Call for a specific bill alongside the current 2018 ratings for each race. You can request the vote for your specific Rep (location services must be enabled), see the votes for competitive 2018 races and/or look at how the entire Member delegation of any state visited (by clicking or tapping that state on the map). Here is that map for the American Health Care Act of 2017.
Related Content: 2018 House Interactive Map
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