Election News

12 Qualify for October Debate; Most Crowded Presidential Stage Ever

October 2, 2019

The Democratic National Committee announced that 12 candidates have qualified for the next debate, scheduled for October 15 in Ohio. All 12 will take part in a single night, making it the most crowded presidential debate stage in history.  The debate will be moderated by CNN and The New York Times.

Since the September debate, Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer have met the minimum requirements of 2% in four qualifying polls and 130,000 unique donors.

The fifth Democratic debate will take place in November, date and location TBA. As previously noted, the DNC is raising the bar to winnow the field.  The 2% polling threshold will go to 3%, while the unique donor requirement goes to 165,000. There is also a new, alternative polling qualifier: 5% or more in two polls from among the four early states.  Five candidates have qualified to this point: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. 

GOP Rep. Chris Collins Resigns; Expected to Plead Guilty to Insider Trading

September 30, 2019

Republican Rep. Chris Collins has resigned from Congress.  He was indicted last summer on insider trading and is expected to plead guilty to those charges this week.

The Western New York 27th district is quite conservative. Despite the legal issues, Collins narrowly won a 4th term last November.  Looking back to 2016, Collins won by 34%, while Donald Trump prevailed by 25% over Hillary Clinton. While the retirement of an incumbent often makes House races more competitive, this vacancy will have the opposite effect. Republicans will be heavily favored to win the special election (date TBA) and hold the seat in 2020.

There are now two vacancies in Congress; Former GOP Rep. Sean Duffy of Wisconsin resigned last week.  The U.S. House currently has 235 Democrats and 197 Republicans, with one independent.

Rep. Mac Thornberry Not Running in 2020; 6th Texas GOP Departure this Cycle

September 30, 2019

Long-time GOP Rep. Mac Thornberry announced Monday he will not seek reelection in 2020.  He represents the 13th congressional district of Texas; the most Republican district in the country per The Cook Political Report. Thornberry won a 13th term by nearly 65% in 2018 while Donald Trump won by 63% over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Thornberry is the 22nd current member of the House to announce they will retire or seek another office in 2020. The list includes 17 Republicans, of which 6 are from Texas.

First Look: A Redesigned 270toWin

September 26, 2019

We're refreshing our layout for the 2020 election cycle.  This includes making the site much more responsive to different display sizes.

Try it out at https://www.270towin.com/redesign. There are a few issues to work out, and some pages still to convert, but almost everything should work as it does on the 'old' layout.

Feedback welcome. If you have an issue getting to the redesign, please enable Cookies on your web browser.

 

 

 

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard Qualifies for October Democratic Debate

September 24, 2019

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii has qualified for the October Democratic debate.  She received 2% support in a Monmouth University New Hampshire survey released Tuesday, giving her the required minimum of four from DNC-approved pollsters. Gabbard had previously met the fundraising requirement of at least 130,000 unique donors.

Gabbard becomes the 12th - and likely final - candidate to make the stage for the October 15 debate. With this many qualifiers, the debate may be split across two nights, although that determination has not yet been made by the DNC.  

Special Election Date Set for Wisconsin 7th District

September 23, 2019

Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers has set January 27, 2020 as the date for a special election to fill the vacancy in the state's 7th congressional district. The seat became vacant when GOP Rep. Sean Duffy resigned, effective September 23.

The U.S. House now has 235 Democrats, 198 Republicans and 1 independent, in addition to the aforementioned vacancy.

 

DNC Sets Tighter Rules for November Debate Qualification

September 23, 2019

The Democratic National Committee is raising the bar for candidates to qualify for the fifth candidate debate, to be held in November. These criteria only apply to this one debate.

Polling: 3% in four different qualifying polls (can be a combination of national polls or those from among the four early states) OR 5% in two polls from among the four early states. The 5% option is new; the threshold in the the four-poll rule is increasing from the 2% in place for the September and October debates. 

The early states are Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, which are all scheduled to hold their primary or caucus in February, 2020. Polls must be released from September 13 through seven calendar days prior to the November debate (date is TBA). For more detailed rules on what polls qualify, see the DNC press release.

The threshold for the upcoming October debate is 2% in four different qualifying polls.

Fundraising: Contributions from at least 165,000 unique donors, including a minimum of 600 per state in at least 20 states. The September/October requirements are 130,000 nationally and 400 in 20 states.

Rep. Joe Kennedy to Run for U.S. Senate; Setting up Intraparty Primary Fight

September 22, 2019

Rep. Joe Kennedy III announced a run for U.S Senate in Massachusetts on Saturday, setting up an intraparty primary battle with the two-term incumbent, Ed Markey. This ended weeks of speculation about whether he would enter the race. 

Should Kennedy win, he would be the 4th member of the political dynasty to serve in the Senate. These include his grandfather, Robert F. Kennedy, as well as two great-uncles, Edward Kennedy and John F. Kennedy. The latter, of course, would go on to become the 35th president.

Regardless of who prevails in the primary, the seat will almost certainly remain under Democratic control. Markey won his 2nd term by a 62-38 margin over Republican Brian Herr in 2014.

We've added Kennedy to the House Retirement Map. 21 current members are retiring or seeking another office in 2020. This includes 16 Republicans and 5 Democrats.

The map doesn't display Rep. Sean Duffy, Republican of Wisconsin. He previously announced he would resign from the House effective September 23.

Highly-Regarded Iowa Poll Gives Warren Small Lead Over Biden

September 21, 2019

Elizabeth Warren has a narrow 22-20 lead over Joe Biden in Iowa. That's the finding of the latest poll from Selzer & Co., conducted for the Des Moines Register. This is one of the most highly-regarded polls of caucus-goers in Iowa.

Well back in 3rd is Bernie Sanders, with 11%, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 9% and Kamala Harris at 6%. Six other candidates saw 2 or 3% support.  This includes Tulsi Gabbard, which means she is now just one qualifying poll away from securing a spot in the October Democratic debate.

Warren gained 7 points since the last Selzer & Co. poll in early June. Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg all saw a several point drop in support.

Bill de Blasio Exits 2020 Presidential Race

September 20, 2019

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio ended his long-shot presidential bid Friday.  He told MSNBC's Morning Joe “I feel like I’ve contributed all I can to this election, and it’s clearly not my time.”  He was seeing little traction nationally, and even less at home.  A Siena College poll released earlier this week showed him with 0% support in his home city.  

Update on Polling Averages

The table below shows the current polling average* nationally and each of the four early states for the 19 candidates remaining in the race. While the national numbers are ultimately irrelevant, it is interesting to look at them vs. state-level support. For example, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is polling more strongly in Iowa and New Hampshire than nationally.  As these primary and caucus events build on one another (see this article about 'sequencing'), Buttigieg's campaign would likely see a bump after Iowa if results played out this way. On the other hand, former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a significant lead in the polls nationally, but is currently neck and neck with Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Iowa and New Hampshire. 

* There has been only one recent poll in each of Nevada and South Carolina; the number shown is each candidate's support in that poll.