Election News

Clinton Wins California

June 8, 2016

Hillary Clinton has won California, according to the Associated Press (AP) and other media outlets. This gave Clinton four victories out of the six states where Democrats voted Tuesday night. More importantly, it avoided the prospect, based on tightening polls, that the presumptive Democratic nominee would lose the nation's most populous state to Bernie Sanders.

 

Clinton, with an estimated 2,755 delegates, is now almost 400 delegates clear of the 2,383 required to win the nomination. She's less than 200 short of achieving that number based on pledged delegates alone. 

As of late last night, before Clinton was known to have won California, Sanders said he would remain in the race.



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Clinton Leads California; Will Achieve Pledged Delegate Majority

June 8, 2016

With 82% of the vote counted, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by about 14 points in California. The race remains uncalled by the Associated Press at this hour.

 

Elsewhere Tuesday, Clinton easily won New Jersey, the other large delegate prize of night. She has also been declared the winner in New Mexico and South Dakota, while Sanders won in Montana and North Dakota.

Turning to delegates, Clinton has thus far picked up 114 on the night to Sanders 94. Clinton is now 100 delegates from winning a majority of pledged delegates (2,026), a number she'll easily surpass once California's 475 delegates are allocated. She will remain about 200 pledged delegates short of an overall majority (2,383); she is the presumptive nominee as superdelegates committing to her have made up the difference.

 

On the Republican side, Donald Trump won all five primaries, adding 297 delegates to his total.


AP: Clinton Clinches Democratic Nomination

June 6, 2016

Hillary Clinton has secured enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination, according to the Associated Press. Clinton becomes the first woman in U.S. history to lead a major party in the race for the White House.

She has reached 2,383 delegates, the exact number needed to win, as an additional block of superdelegates has apparently committed to vote for her at the Democratic convention in July. 

Clinton was expected to easily cross the threshold tomorrow, when six states hold contests. However, the AP apparently surveyed uncommitted superdelegates and found enough to get her to 2,383. We noted this as a possibility yesterday, as the AP did something similar on the Republican side, making Donald Trump the presumptive nominee on May 26th; earlier than the expected date of June 7th. 

For their part, the Bernie Sanders campaign disagrees with the AP's assessment, putting out this statement:


Six Democratic Contests Tuesday: Polling & Delegate Preview

June 6, 2016

After strong showings in Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands, Hillary Clinton is poised to become the presumptive Democratic nominee Tuesday night, easily surpassing the 2,383 delegates required to win. As of Monday morning, Clinton is just 26 delegates short of the magic number.

Nearly 700 pledged delegates are available in the six contests Tuesday, which includes five primaries and the North Dakota caucus. The first polls close in New Jersey at 8PM ET. Clinton leads the polls by 21 points over Bernie Sanders there, and she will likely cross the delegate threshold before voting ends in any of the other states. 

The big prize is California, with 475 pledged delegates. The polls close there at 11PM ET. Sanders has drawn nearly even in recent polling. A Sanders win there would make for an odd evening for Democrats, bookended on one end by Clinton being declared the presumptive nominee, only to have her lose the largest Democratic state a few hours later. 

Limited polling in New Mexico points to a Clinton victory. No polling is available in the other states. However, Sanders has won every other state in that part of the country so he should do well.

The table below allocates delegates assuming the polling averages are exactly right. It also assumes the statewide vote is the same in each congressional district. That won't be the case, but with proportional allocation and only two candidates, it is a pretty good proxy.

Even assuming Sanders takes most of the Dakotas and Montana delegates, Clinton will likely end up in the neighborhood of 2,700 delegates, 300+ clear of the needed number and a lead of well over 800 on Sanders. Clinton will still be about 200 short based on pledged delegates, but with a 300-325 delegate margin expected in that category, there's little reason to believe superdelegates will switch en masse barring a major 'black swan' event between now and the Democratic convention in late July.

The one remaining Democratic primary is June 14 in District of Columbia.


Clinton Easily Wins Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico Votes Today

June 5, 2016

Hillary Clinton easily defeated Bernie Sanders in Saturday's Virgin Islands caucuses, winning at least six of the U.S. territory's seven delegates. This gives Clinton 2,322 delegates, just 61 from the required 2,383.

This article indicates Clinton won all seven delegates by virtue of Sanders only receiving 12% of the vote territory-wide, below the 15% required threshold. However, the island is divided into two 'districts, and Sanders exceeded 15% in one of them. It is possible that he may have won that 7th delegate. 

For now, we are showing the totals excluding that final delegate:

Today is the Puerto Rico primary, with 60 pledged delegates available. Polls are open from 8AM to 3PM Eastern Time.


Democrats in Two U.S. Territories Vote this Weekend

June 4, 2016

Democrats in two U.S. territories vote this weekend as Hillary Clinton closes in on her party's nomination. On Saturday, 7 delegates are available in the U.S. Virgin Islands caucuses. On Sunday, 60 more are available in the Puerto Rico primary.

Caucus hours in the Virgin Islands are 10AM to 6PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST) Saturday. Polls are open 8AM to 3PM AST in Puerto Rico on Sunday. Neither country is on Daylight Savings Time so these times are the same as Eastern Time.

Clinton enters the weekend just 70 delegates short of clinching the nomination. It's mathematically possible, although highly unlikely, that she could reach 2,383 this weekend.

The full June calendar is on the map below. Apart from the two territories this weekend, and Washington D.C., which votes on June 14, all the contests will be held this Tuesday, June 7th. 

 

Note that the delegate totals on this map include superdelegates. 


Field Poll: Clinton Leads Sanders by 2 in California

June 2, 2016

The final survey from the highly-regarded Field Poll in advance of next Tuesday's California primary gives Hillary Clinton a two-point lead over Bernie Sanders. This is the third poll in the last five to show Clinton with a two-point lead. The other two polls showed her with a double-digit lead. 

Clinton lead by six in Field's last poll, conducted in early April.

 

The poll found that Clinton leads by 9 among those who have already cast a ballot, while Sanders leads by one among those not yet voting. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll said that "it will boil down to turnout. If Sanders can get his voters to the polls, he could pull out a victory in California.”

As we noted yesterday, "regardless of how California turns out, Clinton will easily surpass the required 2,383 delegates (including committed superdelegates) next Tuesday. She is expected to arrive at the Philadelphia convention with a lead of about 300 pledged delegates, making a case against those superdelegates flipping their position. That said, a Sanders victory here would certainly give him momentum to push his policies at the convention."


Who Will Win the California Dem. Primary? 6 Days Out, Polls Tell a Conflicting Story

June 1, 2016

Six days out, polls say the California Democratic primary is either tied or Hillary Clinton leads by double-digits. Not much in-between. 

An NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll out Tuesday has Clinton up by just two on Bernie Sanders, well within the polls margin of error. This is consistent with a PPIC poll from last week, also showing Clinton up two. However, two other polls in recent days show Clinton up from 13 to 18 points.

 

The 270toWin polling average gives Clinton a lead of about 9 points. Unclear how useful an average is in this case.  

Regardless of how California turns out, Clinton will easily surpass the required 2,383 delegates (including committed superdelegates) next Tuesday. She is expected to arrive at the Philadelphia convention with a lead of about 300 pledged delegates, making a case against those superdelegates flipping their position. That said, a Sanders victory here would certainly give him momentum to push his policies at the convention. 

California's 475 pledged delegates are the largest number for any state. New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana and both Dakotas also hold events on June 7th. In total, it is the most delegate-rich day outside Super Tuesday for the Democrats


The Simulator Returns for 2016

May 31, 2016

The 270toWin simulator has returned for 2016, currently featuring the most likely November match-up: Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump. The tool populates an electoral map in about 15 seconds, based on a probability set for each state.

The probabilities will be determined by polling, particularly as that becomes more frequent. For now, a combination of polling, 2012 actual and pundit projections are considered.

New for 2016: The 2016 simulator is no longer coded in Flash, so it will work on your mobile device. Results can now split Maine and Nebraska, as there is at least some possibility that one congressional district in each of those states may be competitive in November. Finally, the map can be populated randomly or more East-to-West, based on actual poll closing times.

 

Additional new features will be coming soon.

The way the site is structured, we can only have one simulation pairing, and so we've chosen to launch (rather than wait) with the most likely fall match-up. For the Bernie Sanders fans out there, we continue to maintain the Sanders vs. Trump electoral map.


Gary Johnson Wins Libertarian Nomination

May 29, 2016

Libertarians have selected former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson as their party's 2016 presidential nominee. He won on the 2nd ballot at this weekend's party convention in Orlando. 

Johnson has selected former Massachusetts governor William Weld as his running mate. As of this writing, Weld has not been nominated, and there is some possibility his candidacy will be rejected.  UPDATE: Weld was nominated as Johnson's running mate.

Johnson was also the party's 2012 nominee, when he received almost 1.3 million votes, about 1% of the general election total. That marked the highest vote count for a Libertarian in any presidential election. Percentage-wise, it was slightly less than the 1.06% total that Ed Clark (VP David Koch) received in 1980. In neither case did the party win any electoral votes.

No 3rd party candidate has won electoral votes since 1968? Will that change this year? Game it out with our interactive 3-way electoral map that includes the Libertarian Party.  


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
 
Click/tap the map to use. Colorado is colored yellow for display purposes. Each state will rotate between the three available party options. 


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