Initial 2024 Electoral Map Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball

The initial 2024 Electoral College Ratings from the team at Sabato's Crystal Ball were released Thursday. The forecaster sees the trend of the last few elections continuing. As they put it in the conclusion of their analysis, "[the reality is] that despite the nation being locked in a highly competitive era of presidential elections, the lion’s share of the individual states are not competitive at all."

Only four states, with 43 electoral votes, start out as toss-up: Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6). The first three were the closest in the 2020 presidential election, with Joe Biden prevailing in each by less than 1%. Another 56 electoral votes lean for one party or the other.

The remaining 439 electoral votes are effectively off the board as things look today. These are nearly evenly split, with 221 electoral votes safe or likely for Democrats, 218 in those same categories for Republicans.

Select the map below for an interactive version.