2020 Presidential Election Forecasts

These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2020 Presidential forecast.

2020 President: Consensus Electoral Map

A consensus outlook for the 2020 presidential election based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. Additional forecasts will be added as they become available. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all of these forecasters are shown in the darkest shade. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast.

May 24: No Changes

2020 Electoral Map Based on Polls

Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls.

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time. This far from November, they may be of limited predictive value.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Crystal Ball 2020 Electoral College

The current electoral college ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

April 2, 2020: Colorado and Maine (at-large) move from Lean to Likely Democratic; North Carolina moves from Leans Republican to Toss Up.

Cook Political Report Electoral College Forecast

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from The Cook Political Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

March 9: Michigan and NE-2 move from Leans Democratic to Toss Up; Texas moves from Likely to Leans Republican; Iowa, ME-2 and Ohio move from Leans to Likely Republican.

Inside Elections Presidential Ratings

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

April 3: Arizona moves from Tilt R to Toss Up; Georgia Likely to Leans R; Maine & Nevada Leans to Likely D; Minnesota Likely to Leans D; Texas Safe to Likely R. Initial ratings for ME-2 and NE-2.

Niskanen Center Electoral Map

The current 2020 Electoral College projection from Rachel Bitecofer of the Niskanen Center. Read the full analysis here.

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Politico 2020 Presidential Forecast

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Politico. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

April 19, 2020: No changes.

PredictIt Market Probabilities

Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election.

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.

Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases:  Tilt (<60%) Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.