2020 Presidential Election Forecasts

These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2020 Presidential forecast.

2020 President: Consensus Electoral Map

This map aggregates the ratings of nine organizations  to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2020 presidential election. 

Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day.  

This is not a map based on current polling, but rather a look ahead to November.  We do have a polling map; the two should be pretty similar - especially where there is significant polling - by Election Day.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast.

October 24: Indiana moves from Likely to Safe Republican.

2020 Electoral Map Based on Polls

Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls.

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

2020 Map Based on Polls (No Toss-ups)

Updated three times daily, this map will track the electoral vote count based on polling, with no toss-ups (unless exactly tied).

The candidate that leads in the polls is shown as the winner of the state. The 2016 party winner is used where there are no polls.

See the regular Biden-Trump Polling Map for more granular ratings based on the margin between the two nominees.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Crystal Ball 2020 Electoral College

The current electoral college ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

October 8: Arizona moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Georgia from Leans Republican to Toss-up; New Hampshire from Leans to Likely Democratic. Read the Analysis.

Cook Political Report Electoral College Forecast

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from The Cook Political Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

September 29: Iowa and Ohio move from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Read Amy Walter's analysis here.

Inside Elections Presidential Ratings

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

October 16: Iowa and Ohio move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up; Kansas and Missouri Likely to Leans Republican, NE-2 and Wisconsin Tilt to Leans Democratic; New Hampshire Lean to Likely Democratic. 

The Economist's US Presidential Election Forecast

Updated twice daily, this is an electoral map projection based on The Economist's US presidential election forecast

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (99%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast

Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast

Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day.  

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Politico 2020 Presidential Forecast

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Politico. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

October 12: Iowa and Ohio move from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Kansas and Missouri from Safe to Likely Republican; NE-2 and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

PredictIt Market Probabilities

Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election.

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.

Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases:  Tilt (<60%) Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Princeton Election Consortium

Part of the Princeton Election Consortium polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. 

You can view the full series of three maps here.

A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases:  Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Presidential Forecast

Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection derived from the Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Presidential Election Model

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast

Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast.  This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.

Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

CNN 2020 Electoral College Map

From CNN: "As President Donald Trump remains infected with coronavirus and absent from the campaign trail, his campaign finds itself in its worst political position since the start of the campaign season. The President had a disastrous debate performance last week in what was one of his last best chances to turn things around before millions of Americans began casting their ballots."

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

October 7: Iowa moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up; NE-2 and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

NPR 2020 Election Map Ratings

The current electoral college projection from NPR.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast.

October 9:  Seven changes.  Note that NPR is using the 'Likely' terminology to cover what others call 'Safe'.  We label those states safe for consistency with other forecasts.

 

U.S. News Electoral College Ratings

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News & World Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

September 29: Arizona and NE-2 move from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; ME-2 moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up.