2020 Presidential Election Forecasts

These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2020 Presidential forecast.

2020 President: Consensus Electoral Map

This map aggregates the ratings of ten organizations (more to be added as they become available) to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2020 presidential election. 

Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day.  

This is not a map based on current polling, but rather a look ahead to November.  We do have a polling map; the two should converge as the election nears and forecasters/models place more weight on the polls.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast.

August 10: No changes

2020 Electoral Map Based on Polls

Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls.

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time. This far from November, they may be of limited predictive value.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Crystal Ball 2020 Electoral College

The current electoral college ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

July 14: Seven states (Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, Utah) move from Safe to Likely Republican.

Cook Political Report Electoral College Forecast

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from The Cook Political Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

July 24: Florida moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Indiana, Kansas, Missouri from Safe to Likely Republican. Read Amy Walter's overview of Florida.

Inside Elections Presidential Ratings

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

July 17: 19 Ratings Changes

The Economist's US Presidential Election Forecast

Updated twice daily, this is an electoral map projection based on The Economist's US presidential election forecast

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (99%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

PredictIt Market Probabilities

Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election.

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.

Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases:  Tilt (<60%) Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Niskanen Center Electoral Map

The current 2020 Electoral College projection from Rachel Bitecofer of the Niskanen Center. Read the full analysis here.

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

July 26: Florida moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, Texas from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from Leans to Likely Democratic.

JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast

Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast.  This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.

Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Princeton Election Consortium

Part of the Princeton Election Consortium polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. 

You can view the full series of three maps here.

A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases:  Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Politico 2020 Presidential Forecast

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Politico. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

July 6: Delaware, Rhode Island move from Likely to Safe D; Maine (at-large) Lean to Likely D; ME-2, Lean R to Toss-up; Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania Toss-up to Lean D

CNN 2020 Electoral College Map

From CNN: The national political landscape has clearly and significantly shifted in Joe Biden's favor since he emerged as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee back in March just as the public health emergency was taking hold.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

August 3: Michigan and Pennsylvania move from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Virginia from Leans to Safe Democratic; Georgia, Ohio and ME-2 from Leans Republican to Toss-up.

NPR 2020 Election Map Ratings

The current electoral college projection from NPR.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast.

August 3:  Six changes.  Note that NPR is using the 'Likely' terminology to cover what others call 'Safe'.  We label those states safe for consistency with other forecasts.

 

U.S. News Electoral College Ratings

The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News & World Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

July 9: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin move from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Ohio from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Alaska and Missouri from Safe to Likely Republican

ABC Electoral College Race Ratings

The latest electoral map ratings from ABC News Political Unit.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

July 31: Florida moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic