2020 Presidential Simulation

This isn't a popularity contest™

Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated 2020 presidential election. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or more east to west, based on actual poll closing times.

The simulator is largely based on a data-driven presidential model created by JHK forecasts. However, it also takes into consideration the election forecast of one or more long-time qualitative forecasters.

There are a wide range of possible outcomes for the 2020 presidential election. As a result, any simulation result is plausible based on current forecasts, but no individual result is particularly likely to happen. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon and compile the results.

Speed
no 2020 election
no 2020 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
State District
1 2 3
ME
NE

Session Statistics

These will reset when you reload the page

Total Simulations: 0

Biden Ties Trump
Overall Winning % - - -
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maine 1st
Maine 2nd
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nebraska 1st
Nebraska 2nd
Nebraska 3rd
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Biden >99.9%

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maine 1st
Maine 2nd
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nebraska 1st
Nebraska 2nd
Nebraska 3rd
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Trump >99.9%

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maine 1st
Maine 2nd
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nebraska 1st
Nebraska 2nd
Nebraska 3rd
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming