FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast

Current as of Map Timestamp

Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast

Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day.  

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Current

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2020 election as a Trump vs. Biden forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2020 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
no 2020 election
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Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
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Headlines

Texas 6th District Special Election Scheduled for July 27

May 13, 2021

Two Republicans advanced in the May 1 primary, taking the suspense out of which party will win the seat

Update on U.S. House Vacancies After Swearing In of Troy Carter

May 12, 2021

Democrats hold a 219-212 advantage; this will grow by one later in the week when GOP Rep. Steve Stivers steps down

Overview and Live Results: Mayoral Elections in Omaha and Anchorage

May 11, 2021

Although officially nonpartisan, both of these races feature a Democrat vs. Republican match-up.

New York Times Endorses Kathryn Garcia for NYC Mayor

May 11, 2021

Party primaries are June 22; the November winner will succeed termed-out mayor Bill de Blasio

Cincinnati Mayoral Primary Overview and Live Results

May 4, 2021

Incumbent mayor is termed out; top two finishers will advance to November 2 general election

The Splitting of the Ticket Split

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Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2021

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Notes on the State of Politics: May 3, 2021

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