FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast.
Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Tennessee Republican Rep. Mark Green to Resign from Congress July 20
He previously announced his intention to take a job in the private sector
Reps. Evans and Johnson to Leave House; Now 16 Retirements in 2026 Cycle
Both represent safe seats for the incumbent party; Johnson is running for South Dakota governor
Live Results: New York City Ranked Choice Tabulation
Zohran Mamdani is expected to move one step closer to being certified as the Democratic nominee for mayor
Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year
He had come under attack from Trump after voting "no" to advance the president's signature legislation
Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
A formal announcement will come Monday; Bacon was seen as among the more endangered Republicans next year
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