2020 Senate Election Forecasts

These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called.

2020 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast

A consensus outlook for the 2020 Senate elections based on the current ratings of forecasters at Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections, as well as the probabilistic FiveThirtyEight model. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all four of these projections are shown in the darkest shade.

Use the timeline feature to see how the map has evolved over time.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

November 2: Maine moves from Leans Democratic to Toss-up; North Carolina from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

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2020 Senate Map Based on Polls

Updated three times daily, this map looks at this year's 35 Senate races based purely on polling.  The consensus rating is used where there are no polls as well as for the Georgia special election.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

Use the timeline feature to see how the map has evolved over time.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

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FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast

Updated every two hours, this is an interactive Senate map derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast

Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day.  

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate election forecast.

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Crystal Ball 2020 Senate Ratings

The final 2020 Senate race ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use their map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

November 2: Iowa moves from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican; North Carolina from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Texas from Likely to Leans Republican. Read the Analysis

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Cook Political Report 2020 Senate Ratings

The current 2020 Senate forecast from The Cook Political Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

October 29: Mississippi moves from Safe to Likely Republican. Cook subscribers can read the analysis.

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Inside Elections 2020 Senate Ratings

The current 2020 Senate forecast from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

October 28: Alaska moves from Likely to Leans Republican; Georgia (regular) from Tilt Republican to Toss-up; Georgia (special) from Leans to Tilt Republican

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Politico 2020 Senate Forecast

The current 2020 Senate forecast from Politico. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

November 2: Georgia (regular) moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Virginia from Likely to Safe Democratic.

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Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Senate Forecast

Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection derived from the Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Senate Election Model

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate election forecast.

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