2020 Senate Election Forecasts

These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

2020 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast

A consensus outlook for the 2020 Senate elections based on the current ratings of forecasters at Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections, as well as the probabilistic FiveThirtyEight model. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all four of these projections are shown in the darkest shade.

Use the timeline feature to see how the map has evolved over time.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

September 22: Mississippi moves from Safe to Likely Republican. 

2020 Senate Map Based on Polls

Updated three times daily, this map looks at this year's 35 Senate races based purely on polling.  The consensus rating is used where there are no polls as well as for the Georgia special election.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

Use the timeline feature to see how the map has evolved over time.

Keep in Mind: Polling is quite limited in most states and not all nominees have been determined. Most importantly, polling is a snapshot in time. This far from November, it may be of limited predictive value.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

Crystal Ball 2020 Senate Ratings

The current 2020 Senate race ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use their map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

September 21: Maine moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; South Carolina Likely to Leans Republican. Read the Analysis

Cook Political Report 2020 Senate Ratings

The current 2020 Senate forecast from The Cook Political Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

September 23: Colorado moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.  Read the analysis.

Inside Elections 2020 Senate Ratings

The current 2020 Senate forecast from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

September 18: South Carolina moves from Likely to Leans Republican.

Politico 2020 Senate Forecast

The current 2020 Senate forecast from Politico. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

September 8: Colorado moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Kansas and South Carolina from Likely to Leans Democratic; Tennessee from Likely to Safe Republican.

FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast

Updated every two hours, this is an interactive Senate map derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast

Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day.  

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate election forecast.