JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast

Current as of Map Timestamp

Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast.  This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.

Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

no 2020 election
no 2020 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
State District
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Headlines

Who Will Succeed Lamar Alexander? Tennessee Primary Overview and Live Results

August 6, 2020

The only state in the nation with a Thursday downballot primary. The main contest of interest is the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate

Primary Recap: Marshall Wins GOP Senate Nomination in Kansas; Two House Members Ousted

August 5, 2020

Kansas Republicans opted for nominees with better general election prospects, while a dynastic Missouri Democratic congressman was defeated

Five States Hold Primaries; All Eyes on GOP Senate Contest in Kansas

August 4, 2020

After a two week break, August 4 brings us primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington

The Road to 270: Maine

August 3, 2020

Biden is likely to prevail here, but a competitive electoral vote available in the state's 2nd congressional district - won by Trump in 2016 - will draw considerable attention.

Simulator Enhancements: Bellwether and Tipping Point Frequencies Added

August 1, 2020

See how often a state votes with the election winner and also which states most frequently put the winner across the 270 electoral vote threshold.

Poll-Based Election Forecasts Will Always Struggle With Uncertainty

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We have no idea...

The Senate: Ranking the Top Dozen Best Targets

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — National Republicans...

Excluding Undocumented Immigrants from the 2020 U.S. House Apportionment

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — President Trump...