JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast

Current as of Map Timestamp

Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast.  This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.

Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2020 election as a Trump vs. Biden forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2020 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
no 2020 election
no 2020 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
           
       
State District
1 2 3
ME
NE

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Headlines

Special Primary Overview and Live Results: Ohio Congressional Districts 11 and 15

August 3, 2021

These two seats are expected to stay with the incumbent party but the associated primaries are hotly-contested

Overview and Live Results: Nonpartisan Mayoral Primaries in Seattle and Detroit

August 3, 2021

The top two finishers in each city will advance to the general election on November 2

Overview and Live Results: Michigan State Senate Special Primaries

August 3, 2021

Nominees will meet in November 2 general election; both vacant seats previously GOP-held

Jake Ellzey Sworn-in After TX-6 Win; House Now 220 Democrats, 212 Republicans

July 30, 2021

Primaries for two Ohio vacancies upcoming on Tuesday

Overview and Live Results: Texas 6th Congressional District Special Election

July 27, 2021

Two Republicans advanced from the May all-party primary; winner will succeed Ron Wright (R) who died in February

Notes on the State of Politics: August 4, 2021

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal...

Redistricting in America, Part Two: The Dark Red Greater South

Dear Readers: This is the second part of our multi-part...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 28, 2021

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal...

Redistricting in America, Part One: Gerrymandering Potency Raises the Stakes for the 2020s

Dear Readers: This is the first of a multi-part Crystal...