JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast

Current as of Map Timestamp

Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast.  This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.

Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2020 election as a Trump vs. Biden forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2020 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

What’s Different for Trump This Time

CNN: “Republicans have universally closed ranks in support of their nominee…” “The...

House Democrats Hit Republicans on Abortion

“House Democrats are launching their opening salvo in what promises to be a week...

Biden Campaign Braces After Losing Financial Edge

“Joe Biden’s campaign planned to bury Donald Trump in an avalanche of cash,” Politico...

Who Are the Double Haters?

Washington Post: “They are more likely to be younger, Hispanic or Black, and women...

What Biden Wants from the Debate

New York Times: “Biden aides view the debate as the starting bell for the general...

Headlines

Update: Virginia Congressional District 5 Republican Primary

June 21, 2024

Having alienated both Donald Trump and supporters of Kevin McCarthy, Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good is at risk of losing his seat

Overview and Live Results: Oklahoma and Virginia Primaries; Georgia Runoffs

June 18, 2024

Having alienated much of the GOP, Rep. Bob Good (VA-05) is at risk of becoming one of the first incumbents to lose a primary this year

Live Results: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina Primaries

June 10, 2024

There is also a special election for a congressional vacancy in Ohio

Guam and U.S. Virgin Islands Democratic Caucuses

June 7, 2024

The final nominating contests for 2024 take place in two U.S. territories

Live Results: Primaries in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota

June 4, 2024

Several down-ballot races of note, along with the final state-run presidential primaries of this cycle.