JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast. This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.
Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Cook Political Updates 12 House Ratings
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
The Road to 270: Iowa
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight House Forecast
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Road to 270: Florida
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.
Sabato's Crystal Ball Updates Election Outlook
Changes made to the electoral map, as well as to individual races for Senate, House and Governor.
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