JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast. This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.
Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Who Will Succeed Lamar Alexander? Tennessee Primary Overview and Live Results
The only state in the nation with a Thursday downballot primary. The main contest of interest is the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate
Primary Recap: Marshall Wins GOP Senate Nomination in Kansas; Two House Members Ousted
Kansas Republicans opted for nominees with better general election prospects, while a dynastic Missouri Democratic congressman was defeated
Five States Hold Primaries; All Eyes on GOP Senate Contest in Kansas
After a two week break, August 4 brings us primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington
The Road to 270: Maine
Biden is likely to prevail here, but a competitive electoral vote available in the state's 2nd congressional district - won by Trump in 2016 - will draw considerable attention.
Simulator Enhancements: Bellwether and Tipping Point Frequencies Added
See how often a state votes with the election winner and also which states most frequently put the winner across the 270 electoral vote threshold.
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