JHK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast

Current as of Map Timestamp

Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast.  This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.

Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2020 election as a Trump vs. Biden forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2020 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
no 2020 election
no 2020 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
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NJ
DE
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DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

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Headlines

Kevin McCarthy, Deposed Speaker, to Resign from Congress at End of Year

December 6, 2023

The California Republican is in his 9th term.

Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry Will Not Seek Reelection in 2024

December 5, 2023

The ten-term incumbent from North Carolina served as acting speaker after Kevin McCarthy was removed

Live Results: December 5 Legislative Special Elections

December 5, 2023

Elections to fill State House vacancies in Florida and Minnesota, along with special primaries in two New Hampshire districts

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum Suspends Presidential Campaign

December 4, 2023

Despite qualifying for the first two debates, he was unable to gain much traction in his quest for the Republican nomination

George Santos Expelled from House of Representatives

December 1, 2023

311 members voted to remove the New York Republican from office