We're watching one legislative special election this week.
New Hampshire State House District Grafton 16
With 400 members at full strength, the New Hampshire House of Representatives is the largest legislative body in the United States. The narrowly-divided chamber currently has 199 Republicans, 196 Democrats.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential election cycle will take place this Wednesday, August 23, at 9:00 PM Eastern Time, in Milwaukee. It will be televised on Fox News, and moderated by anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.
Not coincidentally, given the battleground nature of the state, Milwaukee is also the site of the party's 2024 convention, scheduled for July 15 through 18.
Note: The information below was updated on August 20, after Asa Hutchinson said he had qualified. The polling averages were also updated to include a CBS/YouGov poll released that morning.
Tuesday is also the Mississippi Primary. Live Results >>
Ohio voters will be deciding Issue 1 on Tuesday. It is an amendment to the State Constitution.
If 'Yes' wins, the amendment is passed. If 'No' wins, the Constitution is unchanged.
Polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern Time.
Tuesday is primary day in Mississippi. The GOP primary for Lieutenant Governor looks like the most interesting race we're following. Overview and results below.
Ohio Issue 1: Separately, voters in Ohio will vote on an amendment to the State Constitution. It is drawing a lot of attention. See our separate article for more information and live results.
Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. In primaries where no candidate gets a majority, the top two finishers will have a runoff on August 29.
Winners will advance to the November 7 general election.
Governor
This past Thursday, Republican Rep. Dan Bishop (NC-08) announced he was running for North Carolina Attorney General in 2024. He becomes a credible candidate for a position held by Democrats for all but a few months of the past 120 years.1 1Republican James Carson, Jr. was appointed by fellow GOP Gov. James Holhouser, Jr. after Democrat Robert Morgan resigned in August, 1974. He lost a special election later that year to Democrat Rufus Edmisten.
That brings to 13 the number of current members not seeking reelection to the House next year. All but two are seeking another office, with ten running for U.S. Senate. Bishop is the only announced departure seeking a different office. Not included in the 13 is Utah District 2 Rep. Chris Stewart (R), who is resigning effective September 15.
Six Democratic and four Republican-held seats are considered 'safe' for the incumbent party in 2024. The other three seats, held by Democrats, have varying levels of competitiveness.
Tennessee is holding several Thursday races this week. Special elections will be held for four seats in the State House, while Nashville residents will vote on a new mayor.
Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
Republicans hold a dominant 75-24 margin over Democrats in the Tennessee House of Representatives. There are no vacancies, as open seats are generally filled on an interim basis until a special election can be held.
That is the case with the four seats being contested Thursday. Three of these are special general elections; winners will serve out the remainder of the two-year term; the next regularly scheduled elections are in November, 2024. Party primaries are being held in District 51.
District 3
The first elections in August include three mayoral primaries and a state house special primary.
Three of the nation's 100 most populous cities will hold mayoral primaries on Tuesday.1 1City rankings are based on July 1, 2022 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.
The primaries are ordered by population, starting with the largest city, Tucson.
Tucson, Arizona
Cook Political Report is out with its initial electoral college race ratings for the 2024 presidential election. The forecaster projects an extremely narrow playing field, with the election likely to be decided by voters in just seven states. Read the analysis ($) from Amy Walter.
There are four toss-ups: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), and Wisconsin (10). These were the most closely-contested states in the 2020 presidential election, all narrowly won by Joe Biden after Donald Trump took them in 2016. North Carolina (16) starts as Leans Republican, while two states, Michigan (15) and Nevada (6) are Leans Democratic.
Taken together, safe and likely electoral votes are almost evenly split; Democrats hold a 226-219 edge in the ratings.
According to Politico, six candidates have met the polling and fundraising requirements to participate in the first Republican debate.
The list includes the following, ordered by the current 270toWin national polling average.
Donald Trump, running well ahead of the field in polling, has indicated he may not participate.
Related: Just added to the site - a running list of the most recent polls.
The qualifying period continues until August 21.
Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire said Wednesday that he will not run for reelection in 2024. The announcement comes less than two months after he opted out of a bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
After much consideration, I have decided not to run for another term as Governor in 2024.
— Chris Sununu (@ChrisSununu) July 19, 2023
Be assured we will keep working and that the Granite State will continue to be our priority for the next 18 months. pic.twitter.com/VSNNd9BlaA
Sununu is in his fourth term as governor. New Hampshire - along with neighboring Vermont - are the only two states with gubernatorial terms of two years.
The decision transforms next year's gubernatorial race into one of the most competitive in the nation. Both Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report quickly moved their respective ratings to toss-up.
