Election News

Overview & Live Results: New Hampshire Merrimack District 23 Special Election

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states with gubernatorial and legislative1 1Both chambers in New Jersey, state house only in Virginia. elections this year. Both states are holding their primaries Tuesday, June 8. Additionally, there is a special election to fill a vacancy in New Hampshire's state house.

New Jersey Primary >> Virginia Primary >>

 

New Hampshire State House Merrimack District 23 Special Election

The 400 member New Hampshire House is the largest one in the United States. There are currently 212 Republicans, 186 Democrats, with the GOP gaining a majority this past November. There are two vacancies, one of which will be filled in today's election. The other is in Hillsborough District 7, where Republican David Danielson died on May 22.

The 23rd Merrimack District is a multi-member district with 3 representatives. Both incumbents are Democrats. The vacancy was previously held by Democrat Samantha Fox. She resigned on January 12. 

While three Democrats prevailed in November, it was a close election, with all six candidates on the ballot getting between 15% and 18% of the vote. As such, the race is getting attention from both parties. 

Polls close at 7:00 PM ET.

Upcoming

June 12

  • Louisiana State Senate District 7 All-Party Special Primary

June 15

  • Georgia State House Districts 34 and 156 Special Elections
  • Wisconsin State Assembly District 37 Special Primary 

Overview & Live Results: Mayoral Election Runoffs in Arlington and Fort Worth

Two Texas cities will elect a mayor Saturday. These runoff elections were necessitated when no candidate received a majority of the vote in the all-party primaries held on May 1. 

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.

Fort Worth

Fort Worth is the 12th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 925,000. The current mayor is Republican Betsy Price, who did not seek a 6th two-year term.  Advancing to the runoff were Deborah Peoples and Mattie Parker, who received 34% and 31% of the vote, respectively, on May 1. 

Peoples was formerly chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party, while Parker was chief of staff for the current mayor. While the race is officially nonpartisan (NPA), endorsements have been largely along party lines, with GOP Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Price endorsing Parker. Peoples has received the endorsement of long-time Democratic U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson as well as numerous progressive groups. 

The Dallas Morning News has an overview of the runoff and how the candidates are positioned on issues.

Arlington

Arlington is the 49th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 400,000. The current mayor is Republican Jeff Williams, who won a third two-year term in 2019. He was unable to run due to term limits. Advancing to the runoff were Attorney Jim Ross and former councilman Michael Glaspie. Ross finished well ahead of the seven-person field on May 1, receiving 48% of the vote. Glaspie saw 21% support. 

All five of the candidates that did not advance to the runoff have endorsed Glaspie. Ross has the endorsement of Williams.

Upcoming June 8

  • New Jersey Primary
  • Virginia Primary
  • New Hampshire State House Merrimack District 23 Special Election

Democrat Melanie Stansbury Cruises to Victory in New Mexico U.S. House Election

Democratic State Rep. Melanie Stansbury has won the special election in New Mexico's First Congressional District. She will complete the term of Deb Haaland, who resigned in March to become Secretary of the Interior.

From the Washington Post: "Stansbury defeated state Sen. Mark Moores, who worked to make the race a referendum on Albuquerque’s rising crime rate. Republicans, hopeful that suburban voters might abandon Democrats over their embrace of police reform, were stymied by a Stansbury campaign that emphasized her own support for law enforcement funding."

With most of the vote counted, Stansbury led Moores by nearly 25%. This exceeds Haaland's 16% reelection win last November, as well as a recent poll that gave Stansbury a similar margin. It also exceeds Joe Biden's 23% margin over Donald Trump.

Once Stansbury is sworn in, Democrats will have a 220-211 edge over Republicans, with four vacancies. The next special House special election is a runoff in Texas' 6th district on July 27. Two Republicans advanced in the all-party primary last month, ensuring a Republican hold of the seat.

Overview and Live Results: New Mexico Congressional District 1 Special Election

Voters in New Mexico's first congressional district will choose a new representative Tuesday. The district includes much of Albuquerque and has been vacant since March when former Rep. Deb Haaland (D) joined the Biden Cabinet as Secretary of the Interior.

The major party nominees were chosen by their respective party committees. They are Democratic State Rep. Melanie Stansbury and Republican State Sen. Mark Moores. Also on the ballot are the Libertarian nominee, Chris Manning and independent Aubrey Dunn.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

The only public poll of the race showed Stansbury with a 16-point lead over Moores. Democrats have won the district by double-digits dating back to 2012; Haaland was reelected by a 58% to 42% margin last November. Joe Biden won the district by 60% to 37%. All those metrics point to Democrats holding the seat. However, the margin will be worth watching.

A central issue in the race has been crime, essentially pitting a GOP platform of law and order vs. a Democratic message of police reform and funding levels.  How this plays out Tuesday may offer some clues to how well-positioned the parties are nationally for next year's midterm elections.

Upcoming Special Elections

Four vacancies remain to be filled. All of these seats are expected to stay with the incumbent party. As a result, once the House returns to full strength (assuming no other changes along the way), the composition should match the results of the 2020 House elections:  222 Democrats, 213 Republicans.

Date District 2020  Information
July 27 TX-6 R + 9% Ron Wright (R) died in February. Two Republicans advanced in the May 1 all-party primary, ensuring a GOP hold. They are Wright's widow, Susan, and State Rep. Jake Ellzey. 
November 2 OH-11 D+60% Marcia Fudge (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of HUD. Primaries will be held August 3.
November 2 OH-15 R+27% Steve Stivers (R) resigned May 16 to become CEO of Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Primaries will be held August 3.
Jan. 11, 2022 FL-20 D+57% Alcee Hastings (D) died in April. Primaries will be held November 2.

 

Upcoming Elections

June 5

Two Texas mayoral runoffs. Here are the results from the May 1 first round, where no candidate received a majority of the vote.

  • Arlington, TX
  • Fort Worth, TX

June 8

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states with gubernatorial and legislative1 1Both chambers in New Jersey, state house only in Virginia. elections this year. Both states are holding their primaries on June 8.

  • New Jersey Primary
  • Virginia Primary
  • New Hampshire State House Merrimack District 23 Special Election

Garcia Takes Small Lead in NYC Mayoral Race

Former Sanitation Department Commissioner Kathryn Garcia has taken a small lead in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, a new poll finds. In the PIX11 News/Emerson College poll of 570 likely voters, Garcia received 21% support. Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams is statistically tied at 20%, with entrepreneur Andrew Yang close behind at 16%.

Garcia's support has grown significantly since she received the endorsement of The New York Times earlier this month. In a May 15 survey released by the same pollster, she placed 4th, with just 8% of the vote. It appears her gains largely came from previously undecided voters. Their ranks fell from 23% to 9%, while Adams and Yang saw very little change in support. 

The poll also simulated Ranked Choice Voting, which will be used for the first time in a NYC mayoral race. Garcia comes out on top there, defeating Adams by 55% to 45% in the 11th round.

The primary is on June 22. In this heavily Democratic city, the winner will be a prohibitive favorite in November. 

About Ranked Choice Voting

Approved for certain elections in a 2019 referendum, voters can select up to five candidates, ranking them in order of preference.  Initially, each voter's first choice is counted. If one candidate has a majority, that person is the winner. If not, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated and the second choices on the associated ballots are redistributed to the remaining candidates. If no candidate has a majority, the process repeats until one candidate crosses that threshold. 

Using the poll's actual numbers, we see no candidate coming anywhere near a majority based on first choice. Given the large field and several candidates getting notable support, it is not surprising that many rounds were needed to get to a winner. 

Note that in the graphic above, the 'Ballot Test' (first choice) column includes undecided voters; those are removed for 'Round 2'. That is why there is a much more significant change in the numbers for each candidate than would be the case if just Joycelyn Taylor's votes were being reallocated.

Delayed Results

It is possible that we might not know the official winner of this primary for several weeks. While we should get first choice results on election day, the tabulation of subsequent rounds may not happen until after July 9. This is because absentee ballots aren't due until June 29 with the deadline for curable defects (e.g., signature issue) on July 9. This could be a bit of a debacle if the leader on election night ends up losing weeks later, so it will be interesting to see how the NYC Board of Elections ultimately decides to handle the situation.

 

Live Results for Alabama State House 78 Special Primary Election

In a quiet pre-holiday week, the only race we're following is a Democratic primary in Alabama. Next Tuesday, all eyes will be on the special election in New Mexico's first congressional district.  

Alabama State House District 78 Primary (Democratic)

There are 105 State House districts in Alabama. The chamber is dominated by Republicans, who hold a 76-27 advantage. There are vacancies in Districts 73 and 78. The District 73 general special election will be on July 13.

The District 78 vacancy was created by the resignation of Democrat Kirk Hatcher after he won a special election for an open State Senate seat.

On the Republican side, Loretta Grant was the only qualifier. There will be no party primary.

Four Democrats are seeking the party's nomination. If nobody gets a majority of the vote, there will be a runoff on June 22. The general special election is on September 7.

Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.

Upcoming June 1

  • New Mexico Congressional District 1 Special Election

Poll: Democrat Leads in NM-1 Special Election

A new poll for next Tuesday's special election in New Mexico's first congressional district gives Democratic nominee State Rep. Melanie Stansbury a 16-point lead over her Republican opponent, State Sen. Mark Moores. The poll was funded through a crowdsourcing effort led by RRH Elections and Elections Daily; it is the only poll of the race we've seen thus far. 

District 1 is in the central part of the state, including much of the Albuquerque area. The seat has been vacant since March, when former Rep. Deb Haaland (D) was confirmed as Secretary of the Interior. Haaland was reelected 58% to 42% in November, while Joe Biden won the district by 60% to 37% over Donald Trump.

Democrats have won this seat by double-digits dating back to 2012, and are expected to hold it in the special election. However, the margin will be worth watching, as it is the first congressional special election since TX-6 on May 1. That race saw two Republicans advance to a July 27 runoff, shutting Democrats out of an opportunity to gain a seat.

Early voting has been underway for several weeks; it concludes Saturday. On June 1, polls will close at 7:00 PM local time (9:00 PM Eastern). 

Live Results: Philadelphia DA, Pittsburgh Mayor and Five Legislative Special Elections

On Tuesday, Democratic primary voters in Philadelphia will select a nominee for District Attorney, while those in Pittsburgh will choose a nominee for mayor. Both winners will be heavy favorites in the November general election. There are also four special elections Tuesday to fill vacancies in the Pennsylvania state legislature. In addition, there is an all-party primary for a vacancy in the California Assembly.

Pennsylvania polls close at 8:00 PM ET, California 11:00 PM ET - follow along below for live results.

Philadelphia District Attorney Primary Election

We don't normally follow elections for district attorney, but this one stands out.  How will voters respond to two opposing visions of the office, especially in the context of the prominence of these issues in the national discussion?

The incumbent, Larry Krasner was elected in 2017 on a progressive platform of criminal justice reform. During his term, he has worked to change both the incarceration rate and the length of supervision (parole and probation).

Krasner is being challenged by Carlos Vega, a long-time homicide prosecutor who was among three dozen fired by Krasner when he took office. Vega would like to return to a more traditional approach to prosecution and working with police, citing a notable uptick in violent crime during Krasner's tenure.

In a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans 7-1, the winner of Tuesday's primary will be a heavy favorite in November.  The GOP nominee will be Charles Peruto, Jr., who is unopposed.

Pittsburgh Mayoral Primary Election

Pittsburgh is the 66th largest city in the United States,1 1City rankings are based on July 1, 2019 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of about 300,000.  The current mayor is Democrat Bill Peduto, who is seeking his third term. A sitting Pittsburgh mayor running for reelection has not been defeated since before World War II. However, Peduto has a well-funded opponent in State Representative Ed Gainey. 

No Republicans filed to run in a party primary, all but ensuring Tuesday's winner is elected in November. Pittsburgh has not had a Republican mayor since 1934. 

State Senate Special General Elections

Pennsylvania Districts 22 and 48

There are 50 State Senate districts in Pennsylvania. Currently, the chamber has 27 Republicans, 20 Democrats and 1 independent. Special elections Tuesday will fill both vacancies. The next regularly scheduled elections are in 2022.

The District 22 vacancy was created by the resignation of Democrat John Blake on March 8. Blake was in his third term, and had most recently been reelected by a 61%-28% margin in 2018. The major party candidates are Democrat Martin Flynn and Republican Chris Chermak. 

The District 48 vacancy was created by the death of Republican David Arnold on January 17. Arnold assumed office in 2020, winning a special election by 65% to 35%. That election was necessitated by the resignation of Republican Mike Folmer in September, 2019. The major party candidates are Republican Chris Gebhard and Democrat Calvin Clements.

State House Special General Elections

Pennsylvania Districts 59 and 60

There are 203 State House districts in Pennsylvania. Currently, the chamber has 111 Republicans and 90 Democrats. Special elections Tuesday will fill both vacancies. The next regularly scheduled elections are in 2022.

The District 59 vacancy was created by the death of Republican Mike Reese on January 2. Reese had been unopposed for reelection this past November. The major party candidates are Republican Leslie Rossi and Democrat Mariah Fisher.

The District 60 vacancy was created by the resignation of Republican Jeff Pyle on March 16. Pyle had been unopposed for reelection this past November. The major party candidates are Republican Abby Major and Democrat Frank Prazenica.

State Assembly Special Primary Election

California District 54

There are 80 seats in the California State Assembly. It is currently comprised of 58 Democrats, 19 Republicans and 1 independent. Districts 18 and 54 are vacant. The next regularly scheduled elections are in 2022. 

The District 54 vacancy was created when the former Assemblywoman, Democrat Sydney Kamlager won a State Senate special election in March.

This is a very Democratic area; there are no Republicans on the six-person ballot. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, a top two runoff will be held on July 20. 

Upcoming May 25

  • Alabama State House District 78 Special Democratic Primary

Texas 6th District Special Election Scheduled for July 27

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has set July 27 as the date for the special election to fill the vacancy in the state's 6th congressional district. The seat has been open since Republican Rep. Ron Wright died in February. 

This suburban Dallas district was decided by only nine points last November, opening up the possibility that Democrats could contest for the seat. However, two Republicans advanced in the May 1 all-party primary, ensuring a GOP hold.

Updated Schedule of Special Elections

GOP Rep. Steve Stivers (OH-15) will resign effective May 16, after which Democrats will hold a 219-211 advantage, with five vacancies. 

With TX-6 now scheduled, dates are set for special elections in all five of these seats. Although the candidates aren't yet known in all cases, all of these seats are expected to stay with the incumbent party. As a result, once the House returns to full strength (assuming no other changes along the way), the composition should match the results of the 2020 House elections:  222 Democrats, 213 Republicans.

Date District 2020  Information
June 1 NM-1 D + 16% Deb Haaland (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of the Interior. Nominees are State Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D) and State Sen. Mark Moores (R)
July 27 TX-6 R + 9% Ron Wright (R) died in February. Two Republicans advanced in the May 1 all-party primary, ensuring a GOP hold. They are Wright's widow, Susan, and State Rep. Jake Ellzey. A date for the runoff has not yet been set.
November 2 OH-11 D+60% Marcia Fudge (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of HUD. Primaries will be held August 3.
November 2 OH-15 R+27% Steve Stivers (R) to resign May 16 to become CEO of Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Primaries will be held August 3.
Jan. 11, 2022 FL-20 D+57% Alcee Hastings (D) died in April. Primaries will be held November 2.

 

 

Update on U.S. House Vacancies After Swearing In of Troy Carter

Democrat Troy Carter was sworn into office Tuesday as the new representative of Louisiana's 2nd congressional district. Carter won a special election to succeed former Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) who resigned in January to join the Biden Administration.

The U.S. House now has 219 Democrats, 212 Republicans and four vacancies. However, the number of vacancies will return to five later this week when GOP Rep. Steve Stivers (OH-15) steps down

Dates have been scheduled for special elections in four of these seats. Although the candidates aren't yet known in all cases, all of these seats are expected to stay with the incumbent party. As a result, once the House returns to full strength (assuming no other changes along the way), the composition should match the results of the 2020 House elections:  222 Democrats, 213 Republicans.

Date District 2020  Information
June 1 NM-1 D + 16% Deb Haaland (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of the Interior. Nominees are State Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D) and State Sen. Mark Moores (R)
TBA TX-6 R + 9% Ron Wright (R) died in February. Two Republicans advanced in the May 1 all-party primary, ensuring a GOP hold. They are Wright's widow, Susan, and State Rep. Jake Ellzey. A date for the runoff has not yet been set.
November 2 OH-11 D+60% Marcia Fudge (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of HUD. Primaries will be held August 3.
November 2 OH-15 R+27% Steve Stivers (R) to resign May 16 to become CEO of Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Primaries will be held August 3.
Jan. 11, 2022 FL-20 D+57% Alcee Hastings (D) died in April. Primaries will be held November 2.


Note that redistricting will not directly affect any of these elections. That is, they will all be contested using the current district boundaries.